The TPM "Core Four"

Tracking the “footprints of money” by studying the daily “math of the market.

“Money goes where it is treated best.”

Can Anyone Really Time the Market?

At Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC ® we believe emphatically the answer is “Yes.”

Reflect on the statement that preceded that question for a moment. If the average investor knew that other investors, larger and smarter than themselves, may have special insights or God-given wisdom as to new trends or developments, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the actions of the wiser investors (their footprints) would be discernable and offer clues as to their decisions?

We think so. Yet for some reason, many in our industry refuse to accept that subtle and significant changes in the internals (the math) can be detected in advance of a major shift in demand. But for those who have learned where to look and what to look for, the opportunity to seriously protect their capital from devasting downtrends, or to position it wisely at the beginning of a new economic boom, the cumulative rewards can be financially life-altering.

At TPM, we don’t make predictions. We don’t try to tell the market what it is going to do. Nor do we formulate and sell our opinions and then expect the market to do our bidding. We listen to the “math of the market” every day.

Is it possible to tell if…

Big Elephants are on Parade... or Stampeding Out?

  TPM is too small to even make a ripple in the ocean of the financial market. Ah, but Fidelity, Vanguard, Blackrock, Goldman, and many others are the “Big Elephants.” And like a 300 lb. person jumping into a neighborhood pool, their splash is unmistakable when they are parading in. The same is true when they are stampeding out. Either way, their “footprints” are unmistakable. It’s simple supply and demand, and the internals (the technicals) reveal it. The problem for us is that they know this about themselves, and they work hard to cover (hide) their tracks with shakeouts, fake outs, and failed breakouts. Those are designed to hurt your confidence and to confuse you- at least until they can get a head start.

If you have ever gone into a jungle or the deep woods with a professional tracker, you instantly learned that they see things the average person misses. Certain people have insights or experience that others just don’t have. Let’s use something more common, like the weather, as an example. When a storm is brewing in the west and the sky is darkening, you’d be a fool to dismiss it and say no one can foresee the future. Yet, someone else may see the change coming and take proper steps to mitigate any potential damage from “the storm.” But sadly many times folks simply pay no attention and are often hit unaware. This kind of attitude in life is particularly dangerous in the realm of weather regarding tornadoes… and in the realm of finances regarding recessions. Which person are you most like?

Our proprietary system, dubbed the “Core Four,” was developed over 20+ years of intensive, almost obsessive, study of past charts and current real-time graphs spanning thousands of time periods and covering tens of thousands of different investments. The “Core Four” simply tracks the actual decisions of the big elephants in real time each day and then compares the present readings to the historical norms (a “baseline”) to discern the current health of the market. That comparison determines a color code that is assigned to each of the 4 categories individually based on the current technical internal readings of each category. The cumulative color code (which determines our official Current Market Outlook) is then calculated by the average, or blend, of the 4 “Core” colors. In the event of a statistical tie, a certain aspect of the VIX is used as the tie-breaker.

(See below for more detail)

We have long been fans of many different axioms, but our ultimate favorite is, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning, sailor take warning.” It was in that spirit that the “Core Four” was developed and put into service. (Boy! does it work! And we praise God for that!)

The “Triumphant Core Four” is not meant to be a short-term or day trading tool. Rather, it is a tool that “takes the current temperature” (so to speak) of the stock market and gives very current (fresh) readings on the present technical conditions in the market through the most immediate actions of market participants, big and small alike. It was designed to help investors more confidently determine and plan for what would most likely happen next, on a historical basis. It has exceeded our expectations! While the main purpose of the Core Four is still to ascertain the “Current Market Outlook” (emphasis on the word outlook), it has also proven to be invaluable at key violent moments in recent stock market history by immediately signaling a serious drop ahead. Thereby making itself very useful as a signal for certain immediate decisions on a big-picture market basis as well. (See 10/10/2018 & 02/25/2020 links as examples.)

It has proven to be exceptionally effective and timely regarding the start of new uptrends too.

Below are the 3 possible C.M.O. signals, a list of the 4 technical categories along with the trend attributes that the Core Four identifies, and a larger image of our TPM Core Four Color Grid.

The TPM Core Four Color Grid