The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook barely remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The Fed’s stern talk about the direction of interest rates continues to be a serious headwind for growth stocks and the general stock market indexes, even as inflation is moderating. The current test of the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average is crucial. THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL JUNCTURE. All eyes

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Financials: A Harbinger of Things to Come? Last Friday we posited that stocks generally don’t go higher as rates rise when we wrote, “Higher interest rates and a rising stock market generally don’t go together, at least not for long. Remember the old adage “When rates are high stocks will die; when rates are low stocks will grow” in our last post? No

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment “If the Market Doesn’t Do what it is Supposed to Do…” Our team often uses one of our very own market axioms, “If the market doesn’t do what it is supposed to do, it ain’t gonna.” Simply stated, we take historical outcomes and compare them to current technical & fundamental conditions to develop a mathematical set of expectations for each day – the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Moment of Truth, Again The moment of truth for the bulls has arrived. A significant move from here is likely in short order. “Up or down?” you ask. We will soon find out. The math of the market has been pushed to the brink with this morning’s action. This is where the institutions execute their real intentions. If indeed the market is

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Marna and the “Big Short?” That title sounds like a children’s book, doesn’t it? But it’s anything but that. Today’s post is more of a sector analysis than a general market condition bulletin. Although, they are tied together somewhat. The healthcare sector looks sick. (Isn’t that ironic?) By that we mean the stocks in the health care group overall are trading in a

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment …And Back to Yellow We Go Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 2pm today with the S&P500 at 4,104.18. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) sports 2 green and 2 yellow lights with a rising VIX. Two days ago we asked, “Can a strong uptrend and a constrictive Fed coexist for

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Trend is Your Friend, and so is the Fed? The stock market is doing its best to act like a Weeble… it may wobble but it won’t fall down! The underlying character (tone) of the market changed for the better on January 6th and has persisted in its advance. Many are asking “Why are stocks going up?” in the face of a

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Seeking Shelter Before a Storm? Today’s action looked like a stalling day on the S&P500. Noting that and the overhead resistance at the 4,100 level, the market looks extended on the short-term and a bit overbought. Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the close today with the S&P500 at 4,070.56. Our “Core

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A “Positive Double Cross” Moves Market to Green The recent rally phase that was confirmed on the 6th is continuing. Today’s strong move back above both short-term key moving averages (aka: positive double cross) on the S&P500 has changed our Current Market Outlook for the better. Only a nasty reversal in the last hour could negate this upgrade. We expect a strong close

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Not So Fast The recent rally phase that was confirmed on the 6th is being tested this morning. With yesterday’s poor action and this morning gap down at the open below key moving averages, our Current Market Outlook has changed. Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 10am this morning with the S&P500

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Up, Up, and Away? The recent rally phase that was confirmed on the 6th is continuing. The action in the stock market’s internals has improved to the point of an upgrade in our Current Market Outlook to a green condition. While this is good news for the bulls/long-term investors and needs to be considered, the signal is early (that’s one of the things

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To Quote Buzz Lightyear, “Can!” Happy “follow-through” day? It is too early to tell yet (as of 1:30p) but the stock market has a great start to the day and may confirm at the close that a new rally phase has emerged today. And not a moment too soon! Yesterday we wrote, “As this post’s title states, it is “do or dive” time

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment It’s “Do or Dive” for the Stock Market Happy New Year! And good riddance to 2022. Our prayer for you and yours is that you are in good health; emotionally, physically, spiritually, financially and relationally; and that you are remaining optimistic about the future! Proverbs 24:14 says, “Know that wisdom is thus for your soul; if you find it, then there will be

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Not Asleep Just Yet, the Bears Strike Back Today’s opening action is an expectation breaker. The failure of the S&P 500 to hold its 50-day mav and a simultaneous undercutting of its low of yesterday has caused our Current Market Outlook to flip back to a red signal. As of 9:35am (SPX @ 3,834.69) our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Hibernation Day? Time for a Year-End Rally While today is the official first day of winter and many of us are bracing for an artic blast named Elliott, the stock market ironically is hot this morning. Are the financial “bears” about to hibernate? A few secondary technical indicators improved with yesterday’s action, and today’s upward opening is further confirmation. As a result, at

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Selling Grows to Adjust for a New Terminal Rate As of this morning’s open (SPX @ 3,870.74) Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in Correction” with a red light. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 yellow and 2 red lights. The market has made a beeline to the 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq failed to hold

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Failure at the “200-day”… Again? The year-end cross currents continue. Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded quickly again to “Uptrend Under pressure” with a yellow light (SPX @ 4,026.54) as of 11:30am this morning. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 3 green and 1 red light. A whipsawing market is taking shape. A key test of the S&P

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A “Tailwind” From a “Fed Win” Fed Chair Powell has ignited a “risk-on” rally in his post-lunch speech just now. Our Current Market Outlook is being upgraded to “Market in Confirmed Uptrend” with a green light (SPX @ 4,006.77) as of 2pm today. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 3 green and 1 red light. Two days ago we wrote,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Serious Crossroad Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX @ 3,981.05) at 1pm today. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 green, 1 yellow and 1 red light. The major indexes recent bull phase, while still intact, is coming under measurable internal pressure. This time of year can experience various types

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Higher Low IS In! (Yay!) As of 9:30am today our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in Confirmed Uptrend” with a green light (SPX @ 3,882.11) as the S&P 500 gapped up mightily above its 21 and 50-day moving averages (mav’s) at the open, and in the process created another “positive double cross” bullish pattern. Currently our “Core Four” (see top

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Higher Low is In! (Gulp!) As of 10:15am today our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX @ 3,820.26) as the S&P 500 held above its 50-day moving average (mav) at yesterday’s close, added gains at today’s open, and then crossed above its 10-day mav just after 10 o’clock this morning. Currently our “Core Four”

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Rally Attempt is Beginning to Falter As of 3pm today our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light (SPX @ 3,821.17) Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 green and 3 red lights. The stock market had its hopes dashed by comments made by Fed Chairman Powell in his after the rate

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Rally Attempt is Trying to Strengthen That view is not widely held or popular right now. But while that may be so, the math of the market has improved ever so slightly and has caused our Current Market Outlook to be upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of Friday’s close (10/21). Currently our “Core Four” (see top of

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A New Rally Attempt is Underway While it may be hard to read that statement and accept it, it was equally hard to write it. But there it is. Even as the world seems to be on the verge of a collapse, and investor pessimism is rampant and souring more each week, the stock market is attempting to stop the losses and begin

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Moment of Truth There is so much going on right now in the stock, bond and commodities markets. Significant cross currents with technical and fundamental forces converging, better…colliding, all at this moment in time. For a stock market technician it doesn’t get any better than this! What an exciting time! The hour between 2 – 3pm tomorrow will be historic. The Fed’s

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Did the Market Just Fail to Hold the 50-day? The Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to be a serious headwind for growth and today’s CPI number did not help. The current test of the 50-day moving averages appears to be subject to failure at today’s open. That failure (to hold the 50-day moving average on the S&P500 at the open specifically) coupled with

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Did the Market Just Complete a Higher Low? Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. (SPX @ 4030.14 at 9:30am) Our “Core Four” (see top of page) shows 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights and has improved to a yellow signal. The VIX has also moved back below its 50-day mav. The footprints

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Race to the 50-Day Moving Average. Then What? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. (SPX @ 4133.12 at 11am) Our “Core Four” (see top of page) shows 2 yellow and 2 red lights and has tilted to a red signal with the VIX tie-breaker. Just 3 days ago we posted, “It is

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Just Passing Through “No Man’s Land”  Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The interest hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to be a serious headwind for the Nasdaq, and growth stocks in particular, but short-term technical conditions in the stock market have improved. Even with growth stocks and the major stock indexes having experienced a “bounce” recently,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Dog Days of Summer With the summer heat exciting the outdoor crowd by providing for tans and a demand for pools, the stock market is acting more like a slow moving dog looking for relief in the form of shade. After having just experienced the “worst first six months” start to a year ever for the Nasdaq, a relief seeking rally was

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment When Bad News is Good?  Based on the response by big money managers in the stock market yesterday to the Fed’s rate hike and to today’s economic release at 10am, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light. (S&P 500 @ 4026.27) While the Fed’s interest rate hikes remain a serious headwind for growth, underlying

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Does Inverted Yield Curve = Recession? It has been almost 3 weeks since we wrote on June 22nd that a bounce attempt had arrived. At that time, the stock market’s internals flashed the extreme readings that history has shown are usually visible when selling prepares to take a break. Indeed, the major stock indexes have not yet closed under the lows of that

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Bounce Attempt is Here A countertrend bounce (common during bear markets) appears to have arrived. The internal technical action of the stock market last week accompanied with yesterday’s rise has barely improved our Current Market Outlook to a yellow condition. The odds slightly favor a move to the upside heading into the end of Q2 and the July 4th holiday. In last

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is a Turn Near? OK. Maybe we should ask… “is a bounce near?” Let’s be clear about something, the fundamentals of the economy are awful, and they are being reflected in the stock market as it falls deeper into its worst start to a year in decades. Having said that, countertrend “bounces” are common during bear markets (see more below). So, turn =

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Downgrade and a Flash Point As of 3pm today (actually a 2:30pm signal that was confirmed at 3pm) the stock market was succumbing to selling pressure and was falling back into a technical correction. As bad as today’s action is, tomorrow mornings release of May’s consumer price index will be a major market mover. Believe it or not, it is entirely possible

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next (Part 2)? A Soft Landing? New Highs? Our post last week suggested that the stock market was oversold. In it we discussed whether a recession or a crash was on the horizon. (Keep in mind the horizon is still many months a way.) We stated that the next few days would be very telling and wrote… “At the same time

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next? A Recession? A Crash? That is the $64,000 question of the day, isn’t it? If it’s all the same to you, I’d rather play the $100,000 Pyramid. (Evidence of a misspent youth.)  🙂 The stock market remains sick and under significant selling pressure by the pros. The next few days will be very telling. The possibility of a recession this

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment …What do May Flowers Bring? As a young boy, we used to ask the children’s joke, “If April showers bring May flowers, what do Mayflowers bring?” Answer: Pilgrims. While that answer is a funny and historical play on words from our childhood, maybe a more appropriate answer today would be… allergies. Along those lines, the stock market is sick and is having its

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Market Teetering on the Brink The stock market is testing critical support. The massive negative price reversal today on higher volume is triggering a sell signal. As a result of the weak price and volume action at 3pm today (S&P 500 last at 4,402.54), our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The “Core Four”

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Professional Selling Expands, New Lows too The stock market is either running out of gas or pausing to recharge at this juncture. We have written in the past about what we call a “question mark moment” and we are facing one now. The “worries” of the day remain: War, Inflation, Covid, China, and Interest Rates. We call this WICCIR (It rhymes with quicker.)