The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment As Serious as a Heart Attack As the human heart is in desperate need of strong blood flow to remain healthy and to work properly/fruitfully, the same is true of the capital markets, and in particular of equities.  We seem to be at a “who’s gonna blink first” moment. Big investors are sure rate cuts are coming. It’s the life-blood of stocks! They

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Rare Technical Occurrence Last Monday we updated our website to our “red” warning stop light and shared on our C.M.O. landing page (and on our Linked-In social media account like usual) this update, “Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 1:15pm on 04/15/24 (SPX 5,110.77). The general stock market indexes are testing

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Catalyst: Has it Arrived? Last week we wrote, “We see a “low (downward) pressure” system fast approaching for the stock market. The question now is will it be just a gentle shower or a more violent storm?”  That question is being answered today, Saturday, April 13th. Due to yesterday’s news of a possible Iranian attack on Israel over this weekend, we waited

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment April Showers or Stormy Weather? We see a “low (downward) pressure” system fast approaching for the stock market. The question now is will it be just a gentle shower or a more violent storm? The market seems to be sputtering on the diminishing fumes of rate-cut hopes for June. The stock market (as measured by the major indexes) remains priced for perfection. At

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Is He Worthy? He is! As the first quarter comes to an end, this is a great time for reflection. The year has started off well, as far as the markets are concerned. Even the Presidential political process has firmed up. Much is at stake in the remaining 9 months. More on that below. While the quarter was very solid, the major indexes

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Back to Green, but don’t get Comfortable All-time highs are hardly the place where an investor should get aggressive. Having said that, if you think about it, the stock market has been hitting ATH’s our whole lives. At least that is the mantra of the “buy and hold” crowd. Traditionally stock market outcomes show that new highs beget new highs… until they don’t

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Beware the “Violent-3” Market participants, traders especially, are aware of the term “shakeout.” There’s a particular form of shakeout that we are focusing on today and at TPM we call it the “violent-3.”  As its name implies, a “violent-3” (or V-3) is a sharp, violent move down in the stock market. In a large majority of cases, it lasts 3 trading days and

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Fate of the Union Enjoy/ĕn-joi′/ To receive pleasure or satisfaction from. *  I do not enjoy political theater. Union /yoo͞n′yən/ The act of uniting or the state of being united. * We are, after all, called the United States. A second definition of union sounds timelier and preferable: A combination so formed, especially an alliance or confederation of people, parties, or political

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Time for March Madness in the Market? It’s that time of year again already! The Superbowl is over, spring training is underway, and the “brackets” are coming together. Who’s your favorite? Are they hot right now, or just a perennial powerhouse that shows up when it’s prime time? Or are you the agnostic, analytical type that looks at all the stats and enters

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  All Eyes on Nvidia and AI My grandson & I have recently begun enjoying launching Estes rockets. The thrill of seeing his rockets soar into the bright blue sky with a head snapping speed is exhilarating and captivating for both of us- for the whole family. Watching them come back down (which they do quickly) is a bit more nerve-racking. Will the wind

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Shot Across the Bow? Froth. Euphoria. Complacency. Three words that every investor/trader needs to be able to identify. Or, ignore them at your own portfolio’s peril.  Ravenous bullishness is not a reason to “sell all and head for the hills.” It is true that excessive bullishness can last for weeks, even months, before finally yielding to a sharp correction. It isn’t the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Will Pitchers & Catchers Please Prepare to Report? You may be wondering why write a post about baseball during the week of the Superbowl. For most fans, the season is all but over. All that remains is who gets the “bling.” I grant you; this year’s game should be a great one between 2 dominant and talented teams, but football is a winter

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Opposite the Fed Day? Many investors are aware of the term “opposite the Fed day.” It has been observed that often (a good majority of instances) the stock market will do the opposite of its violent move from the Fed rate announcement day on the day after. So, with that tidbit today should be up. Voila! 🙂 Today is also the first day

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The January Effect is Fading? Failing? Our internal indicators, as measured by our “Core Four,” have quickly shifted back to yellow. A VIX that is creeping up and an elevated investor sentiment reading are the culprits. However, except for a couple days of “stalling” price action on the S&P500 this week, the market’s uptrend still seems intact. But our “Core Four” is detecting

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Look Back at Last Week’s Prudent Post All-time highs mean “green” skies ahead? Generally, new highs beget new highs and new lows beget new lows. That is, until they don’t. For now, it’s better said, “strength begets strength.” In last weeks post we stated, “This yellow signal may not last for long especially if the major indexes rip up and off the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Second Test of the 21-day This Year is Upon Us Technicals and fundamentals, when used together properly, are a dynamic duo.  One reveals the “footprints of money” and the other shares the “heartbeat of the moment.” Never forget this: Both are constantly changing. Our Current Market Outlook blends the most important data from both schools of thought and produces a time tested,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Happy New Year! Our God Reigns! New year… same God – the Lord Jesus. Hallelujah for that! Many investors are concerned about what 2024 may have in store for them. Others have thrown caution to the wind and are chanting, “don’t fight the fed!’ To say that a lot is at stake this year would be an understatement. Let’s take a quick inventory

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  And the Fed Said, “Merry Christmas?” Has the Fed really pivoted? Have they declared victory over inflation? What happened to their 2% inflation target? Or, has the Street misinterpreted their comments and read something into them? The Fed has stated, “higher for longer” and still seems to have much work left to do in order to sop up all the pandemic induced free

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  And the Banks and Semis Shall Lead Them The late, great, technical analyst Ralph Bloch often quoted that statement when analyzing the start of bull markets/moves. He had observed an eventual good economy was often preceded by strong initial moves in the bank stocks (and financials, generally- based on an improved interest rate outlook) and a return of an institutional risk appetite, which

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Where do we go from here? What a fascinating chain of technical events! The November rally has been nothing short of breath-taking. The follow-through day on the Nasdaq on the 1st followed by the S&P 500’s on the 2nd, along with our Current Market Outlook upgrade that same day, have ushered in a meaningful period of accumulation in stocks. The question on most

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Upgrade… has Arrived Just yesterday we wrote, “The stock market is attempting to rally off of last weeks lows. Based on the internal “math of the market,” an upgrade to a yellow condition is close at hand. But not just yet.” This morning the S&P500 and Nasdaq are bolting above their respective 21-day mavs on huge volume. Perhaps the market is jubilant

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  So Close to an Upgrade… And yet so Far  The stock market is attempting to rally off of last weeks lows. Based on the internal “math of the market,” an upgrade to a yellow condition is close at hand. But not just yet. On Friday we suspected an oversold bounce might unfold as the S&P500 index and the NYSE advance/declines lines fell to

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Be Very Careful Out There  Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 1pm on 10/13/23 (SPX 4,333.68). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights. The new rally attempt in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is coming under immediate selling pressure. The VIX,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  In Horror We Pray Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 10am on 10/10/23 (SPX 4,353.71). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 yellow and 2 red lights. A new rally in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is attempting to take hold. The recent rise in the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  In Position for a Crash… and yet so Oversold / McCarthy is Out: Is Chaos In? You may be wondering why two titles. Maybe even thinking, “Did he just use the ‘C’ word?” Yep, and if it were to happen it would likely be in the next 4 to 8 days. More on that below. The fact is we had a third title

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Back to Red – Let’s Be Careful Out There Our Current Market Outlook has been immediately downgraded back to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am this morning (SPX 4,481.34). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights due to the major indexes slipping back under their 50-day mavs. The VIX is starting

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Lift Off… Until It’s Not? With today’s move by the major stock indexes back above their respective 50-day mavs at the close, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX 4,505.10). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights. Interestingly, the VIX is still situated under

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Bad Apple The big boys and girls on Wall Street appear to be using today’s Apple hype as a source of strength to sell into, at least in tech land. After shooting back above the key 50-day mav’s on the Apple news just after 1pm ET, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have since slipped back under them and on higher

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Test of the 50-Day is Here The stock market has caught itself so far this week in response to Powell’s speech last Friday and in front of key economic data coming this Thursday & Friday. As of 10am, the SPX crossed over a key price level on higher volume which has caused our Current Market Outlook to be upgraded to a yellow

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  More Like a “Dead Cat” Bounce Well that was quick, and ugly. Some bounce, huh! Basically 3 days and 30 minutes of oversold buying and then a smack down. The major indexes have met enormous resistance at their overhead 50-day mav’s and have NOT bettered and held key price levels (see yesterday’s post). Nvidia’s numbers apparently are not enough to offset the fear

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Bounce Has Begun! The expected bounce we wrote about last week is here. Whether it holds or not and leads to a resumption of an uptrend will largely be determined yet this week. Nvidia’s earnings release comes after the close today and then there is Powell… and his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With today’s price action, our Current Market Outlook has

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  “Higher Rates? Head for the Gates!” We coined that expression just last week and it is already making its presence felt as selling pressures are growing, especially on the Nasdaq, due to higher rates. As a result, our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am ET today (SPX @ 4,413.09). Our “Core

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The “Not So Magnificent Seven” But “beware the tech behemoths!” We made that statement in our last post (July 19th) just as the Nasdaq was hitting highs for the year. The math of the market (as discerned by our proprietary “Core Four” daily market internals formula) warned us things were deteriorating and caused a downgrade to yellow (caution) in our “Current Market Outlook.”

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Selling (Profit Taking) Beginning to Make Itself Felt With stealth selling starting to take place under the stock market’s surface (especially in Tech-land), our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of noon today (SPX at 4,574.31). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 green, 1 Yellow and 1 red light with a

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Only Thing Hotter than Summer: Stocks? Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at last night’s close (SPX at 4,472.16). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 yellow and 2 green lights with a hibernating VIX. With the “dog days” of summer pressing in, the popular indexes are acting more like

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Be Careful Out There Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of today’s close (SPX at 4,446.82). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) still has 2 yellow and 2 green lights but with a bottoming VIX. Keep a sharp eye on the VIX in the days ahead as an important confirming signal. With

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment God, Please Bless America… Again Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at 10:30am today (SPX at 4,344.29). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 yellow and 2 green lights. The Fed’s pause in interest rate hikes earlier this month has fueled the recent rally in growth stocks and the general stock market

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To Hike or to Delay the Hike… The stock market has enjoyed a smart rally over the past 2 weeks and as such has gotten ahead of itself, or what technicians say is now “extended” which means it is ripe for a sharp pullback – a profit taking phase. Going into today’s all-important Fed rate decision, our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To SPX 4,300… and Beyond?  The uptrend continues. Since our C.M.O went green 2 weeks ago, the major indexes have pushed to new highs for the year and to index levels not seen since the summer of ’22. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light (SPX at 4,313.97). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment And it’s off to the Races Again  In the face of great uncertainty, big investment institutions are selectively putting massive amounts of capital back to work… and as such, our mathematical signal has improved and we must follow the markets lead. As of this morning, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light (as of