Special Bulletin: September 3, 2024 (11am Update)

Leaves Aren’t the Only Things that Fall in September/October

Welcome to September! What a beautiful time of the year! Cooler temps, bonfires, pennant races, sweatshirts and football games – all a part of a wonderful new season: Fall. But historically leaves aren’t the only things that drop in autumn- stocks often do too.

First things first: Friday’s trade during the last half hour into the close was a bunch of window dressing baloney! Propped up by the pros to make their performance look a bit better at months end. This morning, we are alrerady seeing the result of that – down hard on sharply higher volume. It will be tough to avoid a Distribution Day today. By the way, who in their right mind would invest heavily in the market going into a 3-day weekend with all that’s going on right now in the world? Folks, that was “showtime!”

Ten days ago, in our last post we wrote, “But it is not all sugar and spice and all things nice just yet for the stock market. The major indexes are right back up to prior highs which at least for a short while will act as resistance. Understand that if the big elephants “know something” or are preparing to reduce exposure, this juncture is exactly where it will happen and selling will emerge immediately. It is after all late August and heading into the infamous September/October period.” As they say in France, “Voila!” – “There it is!”

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the close Friday – 08/30/24 – SPX 5,648.40. Our Core Four is changing this morning to reflect the weakness in the Nasdaq (falling back below its 50-day), and now has 1 green and 3 yellow lights BUT with a VIX that is ripping back above its 50-day mav. Let’s watch to see if the VIX goes above its 21-day mav also this week. If so, that would be negative.

The overhead supply (resistance) on the S&P is making itself felt. The Nasdaq has formed a negative “sub-peak” pattern. August’s low volume has been calling into doubt the staying power of the recent rally attempt. September will shed great light on it, and possibly quickly by the looks of today’s start.

Remember, gravity works on inflated stock prices too. Beware of the fall.

“And He answered and said, “Have you not read that He who created them from the beginning made them male and female, and said, ‘For this reason a man shall leave his father and mother and be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh’? So they are no longer two, but one flesh. What therefore God has joined together, let no man separate.”  

“I am my beloved’s and my beloved is mine, …”

Matthew 19:4-6, Song of Solomon 6:3 NASB 1995

Game plan: Put your defensive unit on the field. Tighten stops and consider raising cash by selling your weakest or losing positions. Demand that the S&P500 holds its 50-day mav or take immediate action to reduce exposure if it fails there by putting your exit strategy in to motion. Ask Jesus for wisdom. Please pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Ps. Happy anniversary, sweetheart! I love you!

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®