Year: 2019

Caution: Excessive Bullishness Warnings Persist (11:00 am Update) As the market heads into the final three days of what has proven to be a fruitful year in spite of many negative headlines, bullish sentiment (aka. complacency) continues to hit excessive levels and has been doing so for several days. This may be foreshadowing a pullback is on the horizon early in the new year. The long-term technical condition of the stock market remains sound, however,

“Oh what fun”… Phase One is done! (11:10 am Update) Just over one hour ago Chinese trade representatives held a press conference and announced details of the Phase One trade deal with the US. (The President had tweeted yesterday that a deal was very close. He was right, again.) Initially, the stock market rallied sharply on the news. As of this moment, the indexes are near their flat lines with a small loss on S&P500

Fully in gear, the market is serving up a feast! Last year at this time the market laid an egg. This year there is meat on its bones. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Based on strong technical action in the stock market this past week, all four of our “Core Four” internal indicators are back to green.

Call us old fashioned, but… Fresh all-time highs continue on the major indexes, but a crack may be emerging. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. One of our “Core Four” internal indicators has turned red, while the other three remain green. A sloppy (even weak) Advance/Decline line along with a growing expansion in 52 week lows on the

Technical “internals” continue to confirm the uptrend. The S&P500 went deep yesterday and again today with fresh all-time highs and created a walk-off celebration on Wall Street! The party was somewhat muted, however, due to the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial averages to do the same. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four”

Technical “internals” are improving as headline risk is decreasing.  (11am update) The technical condition of the stock market has improved and as a result our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show one yellow and three green signals. Net result: the uptrend is underway again. One caveat to this good news is that the number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and

Technical “internals” have weakened while headline risk has increased.  The technical condition of the stock market has deteriorated just enough recently to push our Current Market Outlook to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show two green and two yellow signals. Net result: the uptrend is under pressure. With an increasing number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq on top of severe price damage to many

Technical “internals” have improved, but headline risk remains.  The technical condition of the current stock market rally has improved to the point where our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show all green signals. Net result: the uptrend is gaining traction. While uncertainties regarding the China trade war and the next Fed interest rate decision continue to hang over the market,

Investor discretion is still advised. The stock market remains at a major inflection point. The current rally attempt is being held hostage by negative reports regarding the China trade war and angst over the next Fed interest rate decision. The bulls are waiting for a catalyst to drive it higher, while the bears are convinced a recession is eminent and the next major leg is down. All in all, the outcome of the current standoff

Warning! Investor discretion is advised. Ok. So much for the serious tone. But why so dramatic? The stock market is at a major inflection point. (noun: a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point.) Over the next several days, the current stock market rally attempt will be extremely vulnerable to significant negative news regarding trade wars or Fed interest rate decisions. At the same time, the market is hoping for (and seriously