The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to be a serious headwind for growth stocks and the general stock market indexes. A battle at the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average is underway. Investors need to mentally prepare for a whipsawing market. The economy is still facing a difficult environment

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A “Tailwind” From a “Fed Win” Fed Chair Powell has ignited a “risk-on” rally in his post-lunch speech just now. Our Current Market Outlook is being upgraded to “Market in Confirmed Uptrend” with a green light (SPX @ 4,006.77) as of 2pm today. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 3 green and 1 red light. Two days ago we wrote,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Serious Crossroad Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX @ 3,981.05) at 1pm today. Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 green, 1 yellow and 1 red light. The major indexes recent bull phase, while still intact, is coming under measurable internal pressure. This time of year can experience various types

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Higher Low IS In! (Yay!) As of 9:30am today our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in Confirmed Uptrend” with a green light (SPX @ 3,882.11) as the S&P 500 gapped up mightily above its 21 and 50-day moving averages (mav’s) at the open, and in the process created another “positive double cross” bullish pattern. Currently our “Core Four” (see top

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Higher Low is In! (Gulp!) As of 10:15am today our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX @ 3,820.26) as the S&P 500 held above its 50-day moving average (mav) at yesterday’s close, added gains at today’s open, and then crossed above its 10-day mav just after 10 o’clock this morning. Currently our “Core Four”

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Rally Attempt is Beginning to Falter As of 3pm today our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light (SPX @ 3,821.17) Currently our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 green and 3 red lights. The stock market had its hopes dashed by comments made by Fed Chairman Powell in his after the rate

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Rally Attempt is Trying to Strengthen That view is not widely held or popular right now. But while that may be so, the math of the market has improved ever so slightly and has caused our Current Market Outlook to be upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of Friday’s close (10/21). Currently our “Core Four” (see top of

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A New Rally Attempt is Underway While it may be hard to read that statement and accept it, it was equally hard to write it. But there it is. Even as the world seems to be on the verge of a collapse, and investor pessimism is rampant and souring more each week, the stock market is attempting to stop the losses and begin

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Moment of Truth There is so much going on right now in the stock, bond and commodities markets. Significant cross currents with technical and fundamental forces converging, better…colliding, all at this moment in time. For a stock market technician it doesn’t get any better than this! What an exciting time! The hour between 2 – 3pm tomorrow will be historic. The Fed’s

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Did the Market Just Fail to Hold the 50-day? The Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to be a serious headwind for growth and today’s CPI number did not help. The current test of the 50-day moving averages appears to be subject to failure at today’s open. That failure (to hold the 50-day moving average on the S&P500 at the open specifically) coupled with

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Did the Market Just Complete a Higher Low? Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. (SPX @ 4030.14 at 9:30am) Our “Core Four” (see top of page) shows 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights and has improved to a yellow signal. The VIX has also moved back below its 50-day mav. The footprints

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Race to the 50-Day Moving Average. Then What? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. (SPX @ 4133.12 at 11am) Our “Core Four” (see top of page) shows 2 yellow and 2 red lights and has tilted to a red signal with the VIX tie-breaker. Just 3 days ago we posted, “It is

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Just Passing Through “No Man’s Land”  Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The interest hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to be a serious headwind for the Nasdaq, and growth stocks in particular, but short-term technical conditions in the stock market have improved. Even with growth stocks and the major stock indexes having experienced a “bounce” recently,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Dog Days of Summer With the summer heat exciting the outdoor crowd by providing for tans and a demand for pools, the stock market is acting more like a slow moving dog looking for relief in the form of shade. After having just experienced the “worst first six months” start to a year ever for the Nasdaq, a relief seeking rally was

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment When Bad News is Good?  Based on the response by big money managers in the stock market yesterday to the Fed’s rate hike and to today’s economic release at 10am, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light. (S&P 500 @ 4026.27) While the Fed’s interest rate hikes remain a serious headwind for growth, underlying

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Does Inverted Yield Curve = Recession? It has been almost 3 weeks since we wrote on June 22nd that a bounce attempt had arrived. At that time, the stock market’s internals flashed the extreme readings that history has shown are usually visible when selling prepares to take a break. Indeed, the major stock indexes have not yet closed under the lows of that

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign remains a headwind for most stocks. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes still reflects high risk with a negative outlook for growth. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are oversold and appear ready for a bounce.

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is a Turn Near? OK. Maybe we should ask… “is a bounce near?” Let’s be clear about something, the fundamentals of the economy are awful, and they are being reflected in the stock market as it falls deeper into its worst start to a year in decades. Having said that, countertrend “bounces” are common during bear markets (see more below). So, turn =

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Downgrade and a Flash Point As of 3pm today (actually a 2:30pm signal that was confirmed at 3pm) the stock market was succumbing to selling pressure and was falling back into a technical correction. As bad as today’s action is, tomorrow mornings release of May’s consumer price index will be a major market mover. Believe it or not, it is entirely possible

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next (Part 2)? A Soft Landing? New Highs? Our post last week suggested that the stock market was oversold. In it we discussed whether a recession or a crash was on the horizon. (Keep in mind the horizon is still many months a way.) We stated that the next few days would be very telling and wrote… “At the same time

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next? A Recession? A Crash? That is the $64,000 question of the day, isn’t it? If it’s all the same to you, I’d rather play the $100,000 Pyramid. (Evidence of a misspent youth.)  🙂 The stock market remains sick and under significant selling pressure by the pros. The next few days will be very telling. The possibility of a recession this

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The stock market’s recent rally phase has failed. The Fed’s interest rate hike campaign has picked up and will remain a headwind for most stocks for some time. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects high risk with a negative outlook for

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The stock market’s recent rally phase is failing. The Fed’s interest rate hike campaign has started and will remain a headwind for most stocks for some time. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects high risk with a negative

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Professional Selling Expands, New Lows too The stock market is either running out of gas or pausing to recharge at this juncture. We have written in the past about what we call a “question mark moment” and we are facing one now. The “worries” of the day remain: War, Inflation, Covid, China, and Interest Rates. We call this WICCIR (It rhymes with quicker.)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Just what is WICCIR Anyway? As the first quarter of 2022 winds down today, the stock (and bond) market has a lot on its mind. On Wall Street, it is often stated that the “stock market climbs a wall of worry.” At certain points throughout history, in the face of challenging uncertainties, the stock market has occasionally confounded investors by rising in spite

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Ray of Light? The Fed has begun its advance against the enemy of inflation with a 1/4% hike today. While it could be viewed as a gentle first move, we are reminded that a journey of a 1000 miles starts with a single step. Even if a cautious one at that. In our opinion, the Fed has given inflation a “head-start” in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Blustery Day They say that March comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion. But what happens in between? As I write this from my home, outside the winds are howling at 18 mph with gusts of up to 30+! Earlier, snow was falling… horizontally. (I had planned to go into the office for a bit, but who wants

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is Taiwan Next? As the stock market continues in its new found trend lower, we smell a rat. Sure looks like the “smart money” knew early on something was up. Take a look at the price of Natural Gas futures a month ago. Out of nowhere they skyrocketed and nearly set the energy complex on fire. (Pun intended) Of course, we now see

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Major Move is Near The charts of the stock market’s major indexes are giving a visual look of a coiled spring. The recent price and volume violence has settled down, for now at least, but appears to be gearing up for a significant move- and a new wave of price and volume violence. We would love to sit here and tell you

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Zero Investors often fall victim to their own minds (emotions) in several ways. One specific area is in the form of extrapolation: To infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information. Once a waterfall price-panic is in motion, our minds (with the help of our eyes) often assume the worst. As silly as this

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Sell the Bounce Over the past few days, the stock market’s oversold condition did usher in the bounce we expected. This type of countertrend action is normal after a severe drop in a new downtrend. As of today’s close, (SPX @ 4,589.31), our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The “Core Four” shows 2 red

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Bounce Watch The stock market’s oversold condition is likely to usher in a bounce in the coming days. Friday’s big price reversal (although on lower volume vs. the prior day) kicked it off heading into the last day of the month/first day of the month in-flows combination today and tomorrow. At today’s open (SPX @ 4,431.79), our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Brace Yourself Last week the stock market’s weakness grew as the bulls had little or no ammunition to ignite a snap-back rally and drive prices higher by “buying the dip.” The market’s character continues to change… for the worse. Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of the open this morning. Our “Core

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Happy New Year! And Happy Anniversary? Welcome to volatility 2.0. Or maybe better said, Happy New Volatile Year 2.022. While the year-end Christmas rally delivered on its promises, Scrooge seems to be saying, “Humbug. Christmas (year-end rally) is a humbug.” The past years market buzzwords of “sector rotation,” “bifurcation” and “cross-currents” remain, and “in full vigor.” But new terms are being added that

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Another Question Mark Moment. Who Will Score First? Our Current Market Outlook has improved to “Uptrend Under Pressure” today with a yellow light. The stock market is trying to mount a Christmas/year-end rally even after the Fed’s interest rate announcement last week. Our “Core Four” has improved to 1 green (barely), 1 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) as the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Eve of History Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” shows 2 yellow and 2 red light (see top of page) with the VIX being the tie breaker again and causing a downgrade in the signal to red. Tomorrow’s Fed interest rate decision at 2pm and Fed Chair Powell’s

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment An Expected Bounce Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” shows 1 green, 2 yellow and 1 red light (see top of page) causing an upgrade in the signal to yellow. The stock market’s tone has improved on Monday and today as the fear of the emerging C-19 variant Omicron has waned

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Will Black Friday’s Fear Trade Lead to a Red (Down) Monday? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am today. Our “Core Four” stands with 2 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) with the VIX breaking the tie and causing a change in the light to red. The stock

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buyer Beware Are stocks on your Christmas shopping list? Or those of your loved ones? It is possible as excessive enthusiasm is becoming rampant again on Wall Street. Froth is beginning to show up like the Christmas lights in our neighbors’ yards. Is a black Monday likely to follow this year’s black Friday? There are many seasonal tendencies to be aware of in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Excessive enthusiasm is beginning to creep into the stock market again. While a bullish tone in the stock market is always desirable, a frothy one is not.  With today’s action in the broader market, coupled with tomorrows looming Fed taper announcement, our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. As