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Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend under Pressure” and our light is “yellow“. Based on underlying technical conditions on the major indexes, the current environment for making money in superior growth stocks & general stock market indexes is experiencing increasing selling pressure. As the coronavirus issue is still rearing its ugly head, this is a news driven market with technical conditions that are beginning to deteriorate.

Special Bulletin: February 24, 2020 (10:30am update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend under Pressure” and our light is “yellow“. Based on underlying technical conditions on the major indexes, the current environment for making money in superior growth stocks & general stock market indexes is experiencing increasing selling pressure. As the coronavirus issue is still rearing its ugly head, this is a news driven market with technical conditions that are

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Special Bulletin: February 20, 2020

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Economic Data Looks Hot. Bonds Say “Not”! The stock market continues to rise like the coffers of Presidential hopefuls. Yet, a curious divergence is developing in the action of the much larger, and generally wiser, bond market. While the economic data being released almost daily continue to paint a rosy picture, that darned old inverted yield curve, like the weeds beginning to pop

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Special Bulletin: February 5, 2020

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Hail to the Chief, and to the Chiefs! Fifty years is a long time to wait! And we’re not talking about football. According to the President, that’s how long it has been since certain economic conditions have been as good as they are now in the USA. Hail to the Chief! As for football, 50 years is a long time to wait for

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Special Bulletin: January 27, 2020

Is the market catching its own case of the coronavirus? The coronavirus has captured the attention of Wall Street. Maybe better said, the fear of it has. While the odds of a pandemic are low, the odds for some profit taking and a minor correction are high. As a result of recent market action, our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. While the long-term technical condition of the

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Special Bulletin: January 21, 2020

T.I.N.A. and F.O.M.O. are setting the pace. But are they alone? We are not talking about some Hollywood celeb or a new line of fashionable west-coast clothing. TINA & FOMO are as Wall Street as it gets. These are acronyms, of course, and they properly elucidate our current bull market. TINA: There Is No Alternative (to equities), and FOMO: (the) Fear Of Missing Out, are in control of the stock market currently. But as with

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Special Bulletin: January 08, 2020

…And the Highs just keep on comin’! First, a personal note. After hearing the reports of the Iranian missile strikes on US bases last night and learning this morning there were no casualties (thank You God!) and only minimal damage, my mind kept repeating this familiar verse all day, “…and the rocket’s red glare, the bombs bursting in air, gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.” I can only imagine what

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Special Bulletin: December 27, 2019

Caution: Excessive Bullishness Warnings Persist (11:00 am Update) As the market heads into the final three days of what has proven to be a fruitful year in spite of many negative headlines, bullish sentiment (aka. complacency) continues to hit excessive levels and has been doing so for several days. This may be foreshadowing a pullback is on the horizon early in the new year. The long-term technical condition of the stock market remains sound, however,

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Special Bulletin: December 13, 2019

“Oh what fun”… Phase One is done! (11:10 am Update) Just over one hour ago Chinese trade representatives held a press conference and announced details of the Phase One trade deal with the US. (The President had tweeted yesterday that a deal was very close. He was right, again.) Initially, the stock market rallied sharply on the news. As of this moment, the indexes are near their flat lines with a small loss on S&P500

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Special Bulletin: November 27, 2019

Fully in gear, the market is serving up a feast! Last year at this time the market laid an egg. This year there is meat on its bones. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Based on strong technical action in the stock market this past week, all four of our “Core Four” internal indicators are back to green.

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Special Bulletin: November 13, 2019

Call us old fashioned, but… Fresh all-time highs continue on the major indexes, but a crack may be emerging. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. One of our “Core Four” internal indicators has turned red, while the other three remain green. A sloppy (even weak) Advance/Decline line along with a growing expansion in 52 week lows on the

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Special Bulletin: October 29, 2019

Technical “internals” continue to confirm the uptrend. The S&P500 went deep yesterday and again today with fresh all-time highs and created a walk-off celebration on Wall Street! The party was somewhat muted, however, due to the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial averages to do the same. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four”

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Special Bulletin: October 15, 2019

Technical “internals” are improving as headline risk is decreasing.  (11am update) The technical condition of the stock market has improved and as a result our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show one yellow and three green signals. Net result: the uptrend is underway again. One caveat to this good news is that the number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and

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Special Bulletin: September 27, 2019

Technical “internals” have weakened while headline risk has increased.  The technical condition of the stock market has deteriorated just enough recently to push our Current Market Outlook to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show two green and two yellow signals. Net result: the uptrend is under pressure. With an increasing number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq on top of severe price damage to many

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Special Bulletin: September 9, 2019

Technical “internals” have improved, but headline risk remains.  The technical condition of the current stock market rally has improved to the point where our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show all green signals. Net result: the uptrend is gaining traction. While uncertainties regarding the China trade war and the next Fed interest rate decision continue to hang over the market,

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Special Bulletin: September 4, 2019

Investor discretion is still advised. The stock market remains at a major inflection point. The current rally attempt is being held hostage by negative reports regarding the China trade war and angst over the next Fed interest rate decision. The bulls are waiting for a catalyst to drive it higher, while the bears are convinced a recession is eminent and the next major leg is down. All in all, the outcome of the current standoff

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Special Bulletin: August 20, 2019

Warning! Investor discretion is advised. Ok. So much for the serious tone. But why so dramatic? The stock market is at a major inflection point. (noun: a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point.) Over the next several days, the current stock market rally attempt will be extremely vulnerable to significant negative news regarding trade wars or Fed interest rate decisions. At the same time, the market is hoping for (and seriously

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Special Bulletin: August 5, 2019

The major stock market indexes were swamped by intense Distribution (professional selling) again today and undercut their 50 day moving averages like a Jianshi warriors sword through bamboo. A rejection by the Chinese to buy American farm products and a simultaneous blatant devaluation of their currency pushed global stock markets off the Great Wall. Our “core 4” market internal indicators are now all in the RED zone and our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded

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Special Bulletin: July 31, 2019

Has the Powell pivot turned into a Powell pounding? Probably not. It seems like the 1/4 percent rate cut was meant to be more of a present given to the stock market than a punishment. But at least for today, the market pouted that it didn’t get its 1/2 percent cut. The main stock market indexes succumbed to intense professional selling (aka Distribution), which started during Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s press conference, and as of

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Special Bulletin: July 24, 2019

The summers heat is not the only thing that’s hot right now! Continued record closing highs on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, and a 1.6% surge in the heretofore struggling Russell 2000 small-cap index turned up the heat on the bear camp today. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. We are calling this bull move “The Timex Rally”. Why? Because it takes a licking and keeps on ticking.

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Special Bulletin: July 2, 2019

New all-time highs on the S&P 500 are creating fireworks in the financial media! With the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial indexes just a whisper away themselves, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Two weeks ago we wrote, “For now, Mr. Market is saying “do as I do, not as the news media says”. The markets’ internals continue to improve and the rally is expanding. No Distribution Days

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Special Bulletin: June 18, 2019

How tweet it is! (Please pardon our humor, but with todays market action we couldn’t resist.) The Presidents early morning positive tweet about upcoming trade talks with China sparked a buying frenzy and caused the major stock market indexes to bolt ahead on strong volume. In the process, todays move confirmed the June 7th follow-through day and caused an upgrade in Our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. For

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Special Bulletin: June 7, 2019

Today the market celebrated hopeful good news regarding Mexico like it was cinco de mayo, and in the process confirmed a “follow-through day” (FT day) on day 4 of its new rally attempt. Then after the close today President Trump announced an indefinite suspension of tariffs on Mexican goods coming into our country. While this news is good and should bode well for a continuation of the current rally, investors should watch the market action

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Special Bulletin: June 4, 2019

The major stock market indexes rebounded sharply today after setting new price lows for this current correction just yesterday. While the strong snap-back rally in response to Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments this morning was encouraging, officially today was only day 1 of a new rally attempt. Unfortunately, todays move came with lower total trading volume than the previous days rout. As such, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in Correction” with a “red“ light.

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Special Bulletin: May 23rd, 2019

(11:30am update) Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in Correction” and our light is now “red“. The stock markets uptrend has slipped into a correction. With last nights fourth consecutive close under the 50 day moving average by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, and this mornings “fears of global economic slowing” sharp sell-off on top of an already weak technical backdrop (mentioned yesterday), our official signal is now downgraded to a “red” light.

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Special Bulletin: May 22nd, 2019

(11am update) Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is still “yellow“. The stock markets uptrend is hanging on by a technical thread. With three successive closes under the 50 day moving average by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, the market must make an immediate strong move up to keep from succumbing to the growing selling pressure and being downgraded to a “red” light. On a more positive note, the market

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Special Bulletin: May 7th, 2019

Our Current Market Outlook has been changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is now “yellow“. The stock market came under significant selling today in response to escalating trade tensions with China, and in the process knifed through the first of two key moving averages and sank further under an important trendline. The bulls ability to support stocks and drive prices into all-time high territory will face a major test this week as worries

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Special Bulletin: April 29th, 2019

As 2 of the 3 major stock market indexes plow into all-time high price territory, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” and our light is “green“. Currently, each of our “core 4” internal indicators are green. Our regular readers know that our signal turned bullish (green) on January 17th and has stayed there since. This once again proves the internal math of the market trumps the TV talking heads and investors fickle

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Special Bulletin: April 11th 2019

With the full effects of spring beginning to sprout across the landscape, there’s more green than just the great outdoors. Our Current Market Outlook light remains “green” as the market’s solid uptrend has been resilient. The stock market almost succumbed to a late frost twice in March but managed to avoid slipping into a caution condition, or yellow light, as buyers emerged (not being afraid to see their shadows) and the indexes kited higher. With a gentle

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Special Bulletin: March 25th, 2019

Our light remains green… barely! Today a second of our “core 4” internal indicators went “yellow” and created a 1st-stage sell signal. A third of the “core 4” is at a tipping point. For the second time this month the stock market status is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light, which would cause a change in our Current Market Outlook to uptrend under pressure. Just over 2 weeks ago the market

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Special Bulletin: March 7th, 2019​

The market suffered Distribution (professional selling) again today while the S&P500 & the Nasdaq both sliced down through and closed under an important short-term moving average. As of today, one of our “core 4” indicators turned yellow. The market is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light which would change our current market outlook to uptrend under pressure. Tomorrow (Friday) will be a key day to see how investors respond to the

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Special Bulletin: February 27th, 2019

Neither a late February winter chill, nor a chilling testimony by Amb. Robert Lighthizer could cause bulls to hibernate today. The market continues to leave the “technically” climactic Christmas eve low in the rear view mirror and use the follow-through day of January 4th as a launching pad. The strength and speed of this up-move has been almost textbook when comparing it to other “blast-off” moves after bear markets of the past. While the rally

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Special Bulletin: February 13th, 2019

As we reflect fondly on the rally of 2019 this eve of Valentines day, it appears that institutions are again falling in love with stocks and embracing the markets rally. Their desire has been re-ignited for stocks as they have offered sweet returns since the follow-through day of January 4th. Investors admiration appears the strongest for the growth stocks of the computer software -Enterprise group, the darlings of the new year. While last years market

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Special Bulletin: January 31st, 2019

“As goes January, so goes the year.” Really? Is it that easy? NO! While that old adage (the January barometer) does have some strong evidence behind it, at best it has only been accurate about 75% of the time since 1945. (Source: Fidelity Active Investor) Still, that’s not too bad. However, if you look a little closer (how about 2018) you find that a super January led to a choppy mid-year and an awful last

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Special Bulletin: January 17th, 2019

“Green” is the new black. This week the math of the market sent bullish signals as the markets achieved the final piece of the necessary “core 4” specific technical events to affect an upgrade in our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” and a “green” light. Today the S&P500 successfully closed over its 50day moving average, just 2 days after the Nasdaq did the same. That core element came on the heals of the new

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Special Bulletin: January 5th, 2019

Day 7. Day 7 did indeed yield a “Follow-Through day”! The S&P500 & Dow enjoyed meaningful price gains on volume that increased from the previous day, and in the process confirmed a new uptrend according to the disciplined work of Investors Business Daily. However, based on our disciplined, rules-based risk management system, only two of the “core 4” specific technical events (the bottom-building process) that are needed to affect a change back to a green light

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Special Bulletin: January 3rd, 2019

Day 6 (10:30 AM Update) Day 6 of a potential new rally attempt is all the market has so far for the bulls. The market continues in a correction that has now been exacerbated by the admission of a revenue shortfall from Apple yesterday after the close. This revelation has caused reverberations across the technology sector. Currently the Nasdaq is off almost 200 pts or nearly 3% and the Dow is down over 600 points. Prudent investors

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Special Bulletin: December 27th, 2018

Day 1 (11:30 AM Update). Day 1 of a potential new rally attempt is all that you can make of yesterdays massive move up. The trend of the market is still down. While yesterday was the first ever +1,000 point up move in the Dow Jones Industrial average, it was no where near the top percentage single days gains of the past 90 years. In fact, according to research from Investors Business Daily, the 9

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Special Bulletin: December 17th, 2018

(2:00 PM Update) The stock market has officially fallen into correction mode today with the Dow, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all down around 1.50% and with all 3 indexes having undercut their recent lows. Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is now “red”. As noted in our recent posts, the markets internals were already weak and the young uptrend was under growing selling pressure. That selling pressure followed

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Special Bulletin: December 8th, 2018

Throughout our careers we have heard it said that “the market climbs a wall of worry“. Historically when the markets are in an uptrend, the institutions and media sound the alarms of possible threats which keeps the small investors (the public) nervous and largely out of the market. That certainly was the case in 2017 and part of 2018. We think the narrative may have changed as of October 4th. The motto may now be “the market

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Special Bulletin: November 27th, 2018

Remain defensive but be prepared to act decisively this week and especially in the week ahead. Complete your watch list of great companies that exhibit super fundamentals with solid technical support, and plan your investment steps now during this calm before the storm of activity. Your action plan should also include defensive steps to take in the event that the news is NOT good. While the “news” seems scary currently, in time, this situation will

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Outlook Updates