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Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the close on 02/22/24 (SPX 5,087.03). The general stock market indexes have successfully tested and jumped off their 21-day mav’s. Remember, no rally can fail without getting below them. Interest rates are arguing with stocks and are suggesting a recession is still coming – keep an eye on the 10-year US T-note yield. The economy is slowing while the stock market is climbing – expect a period of volatility.

Special Bulletin: February 22, 2024

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  All Eyes on Nvidia and AI My grandson & I have recently begun enjoying launching Estes rockets. The thrill of seeing his rockets soar into the bright blue sky with a head snapping speed is exhilarating and captivating for both of us- for the whole family. Watching them come back down (which they do quickly) is a bit more nerve-racking. Will the wind

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Special Bulletin: February 16, 2024 (10a Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Shot Across the Bow? Froth. Euphoria. Complacency. Three words that every investor/trader needs to be able to identify. Or, ignore them at your own portfolio’s peril.  Ravenous bullishness is not a reason to “sell all and head for the hills.” It is true that excessive bullishness can last for weeks, even months, before finally yielding to a sharp correction. It isn’t the

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Special Bulletin: February 7, 2024

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Will Pitchers & Catchers Please Prepare to Report? You may be wondering why write a post about baseball during the week of the Superbowl. For most fans, the season is all but over. All that remains is who gets the “bling.” I grant you; this year’s game should be a great one between 2 dominant and talented teams, but football is a winter

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Special Bulletin: February 1, 2024 (2p Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Opposite the Fed Day? Many investors are aware of the term “opposite the Fed day.” It has been observed that often (a good majority of instances) the stock market will do the opposite of its violent move from the Fed rate announcement day on the day after. So, with that tidbit today should be up. Voila! 🙂 Today is also the first day

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Special Bulletin: January 25, 2024

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The January Effect is Fading? Failing? Our internal indicators, as measured by our “Core Four,” have quickly shifted back to yellow. A VIX that is creeping up and an elevated investor sentiment reading are the culprits. However, except for a couple days of “stalling” price action on the S&P500 this week, the market’s uptrend still seems intact. But our “Core Four” is detecting

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Special Bulletin: January 23, 2024

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Look Back at Last Week’s Prudent Post All-time highs mean “green” skies ahead? Generally, new highs beget new highs and new lows beget new lows. That is, until they don’t. For now, it’s better said, “strength begets strength.” In last weeks post we stated, “This yellow signal may not last for long especially if the major indexes rip up and off the

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Special Bulletin: January 17, 2024 (9a Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Second Test of the 21-day This Year is Upon Us Technicals and fundamentals, when used together properly, are a dynamic duo.  One reveals the “footprints of money” and the other shares the “heartbeat of the moment.” Never forget this: Both are constantly changing. Our Current Market Outlook blends the most important data from both schools of thought and produces a time tested,

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Special Bulletin: January 8, 2024 (10a Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Happy New Year! Our God Reigns! New year… same God – the Lord Jesus. Hallelujah for that! Many investors are concerned about what 2024 may have in store for them. Others have thrown caution to the wind and are chanting, “don’t fight the fed!’ To say that a lot is at stake this year would be an understatement. Let’s take a quick inventory

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Special Bulletin: December 19, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  And the Fed Said, “Merry Christmas?” Has the Fed really pivoted? Have they declared victory over inflation? What happened to their 2% inflation target? Or, has the Street misinterpreted their comments and read something into them? The Fed has stated, “higher for longer” and still seems to have much work left to do in order to sop up all the pandemic induced free

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Special Bulletin: December 13, 2023 (2p Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  And the Banks and Semis Shall Lead Them The late, great, technical analyst Ralph Bloch often quoted that statement when analyzing the start of bull markets/moves. He had observed an eventual good economy was often preceded by strong initial moves in the bank stocks (and financials, generally- based on an improved interest rate outlook) and a return of an institutional risk appetite, which

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Special Bulletin: November 29, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Where do we go from here? What a fascinating chain of technical events! The November rally has been nothing short of breath-taking. The follow-through day on the Nasdaq on the 1st followed by the S&P 500’s on the 2nd, along with our Current Market Outlook upgrade that same day, have ushered in a meaningful period of accumulation in stocks. The question on most

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Special Bulletin: November 2, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Upgrade… has Arrived Just yesterday we wrote, “The stock market is attempting to rally off of last weeks lows. Based on the internal “math of the market,” an upgrade to a yellow condition is close at hand. But not just yet.” This morning the S&P500 and Nasdaq are bolting above their respective 21-day mavs on huge volume. Perhaps the market is jubilant

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Special Bulletin: November 1, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  So Close to an Upgrade… And yet so Far  The stock market is attempting to rally off of last weeks lows. Based on the internal “math of the market,” an upgrade to a yellow condition is close at hand. But not just yet. On Friday we suspected an oversold bounce might unfold as the S&P500 index and the NYSE advance/declines lines fell to

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Special Bulletin: October 13, 2023 (1pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Be Very Careful Out There  Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 1pm on 10/13/23 (SPX 4,333.68). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights. The new rally attempt in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is coming under immediate selling pressure. The VIX,

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Special Bulletin: October 10, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  In Horror We Pray Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 10am on 10/10/23 (SPX 4,353.71). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 yellow and 2 red lights. A new rally in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is attempting to take hold. The recent rise in the

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Special Bulletin: October 3, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  In Position for a Crash… and yet so Oversold / McCarthy is Out: Is Chaos In? You may be wondering why two titles. Maybe even thinking, “Did he just use the ‘C’ word?” Yep, and if it were to happen it would likely be in the next 4 to 8 days. More on that below. The fact is we had a third title

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Special Bulletin: September 15, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Back to Red – Let’s Be Careful Out There Our Current Market Outlook has been immediately downgraded back to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am this morning (SPX 4,481.34). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights due to the major indexes slipping back under their 50-day mavs. The VIX is starting

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Special Bulletin: September 14, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Lift Off… Until It’s Not? With today’s move by the major stock indexes back above their respective 50-day mavs at the close, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX 4,505.10). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights. Interestingly, the VIX is still situated under

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Special Bulletin: September 12, 2023 (2pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Bad Apple The big boys and girls on Wall Street appear to be using today’s Apple hype as a source of strength to sell into, at least in tech land. After shooting back above the key 50-day mav’s on the Apple news just after 1pm ET, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have since slipped back under them and on higher

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Special Bulletin: August 29, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Test of the 50-Day is Here The stock market has caught itself so far this week in response to Powell’s speech last Friday and in front of key economic data coming this Thursday & Friday. As of 10am, the SPX crossed over a key price level on higher volume which has caused our Current Market Outlook to be upgraded to a yellow

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Special Bulletin: August 24, 2023 (1:30pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  More Like a “Dead Cat” Bounce Well that was quick, and ugly. Some bounce, huh! Basically 3 days and 30 minutes of oversold buying and then a smack down. The major indexes have met enormous resistance at their overhead 50-day mav’s and have NOT bettered and held key price levels (see yesterday’s post). Nvidia’s numbers apparently are not enough to offset the fear

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Special Bulletin: August 23, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Bounce Has Begun! The expected bounce we wrote about last week is here. Whether it holds or not and leads to a resumption of an uptrend will largely be determined yet this week. Nvidia’s earnings release comes after the close today and then there is Powell… and his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With today’s price action, our Current Market Outlook has

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Special Bulletin: August 17, 2023 (10a Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  “Higher Rates? Head for the Gates!” We coined that expression just last week and it is already making its presence felt as selling pressures are growing, especially on the Nasdaq, due to higher rates. As a result, our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am ET today (SPX @ 4,413.09). Our “Core

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Special Bulletin: August 10, 2023 (12p Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The “Not So Magnificent Seven” But “beware the tech behemoths!” We made that statement in our last post (July 19th) just as the Nasdaq was hitting highs for the year. The math of the market (as discerned by our proprietary “Core Four” daily market internals formula) warned us things were deteriorating and caused a downgrade to yellow (caution) in our “Current Market Outlook.”

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Special Bulletin: July 19, 2023 (12p Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Selling (Profit Taking) Beginning to Make Itself Felt With stealth selling starting to take place under the stock market’s surface (especially in Tech-land), our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of noon today (SPX at 4,574.31). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 green, 1 Yellow and 1 red light with a

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Special Bulletin: July 13, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Only Thing Hotter than Summer: Stocks? Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at last night’s close (SPX at 4,472.16). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 yellow and 2 green lights with a hibernating VIX. With the “dog days” of summer pressing in, the popular indexes are acting more like

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Special Bulletin: July 5, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Be Careful Out There Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of today’s close (SPX at 4,446.82). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) still has 2 yellow and 2 green lights but with a bottoming VIX. Keep a sharp eye on the VIX in the days ahead as an important confirming signal. With

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Special Bulletin: June 27, 2023 (10:30am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment God, Please Bless America… Again Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at 10:30am today (SPX at 4,344.29). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 yellow and 2 green lights. The Fed’s pause in interest rate hikes earlier this month has fueled the recent rally in growth stocks and the general stock market

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Special Bulletin: June 14, 2023 (12pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To Hike or to Delay the Hike… The stock market has enjoyed a smart rally over the past 2 weeks and as such has gotten ahead of itself, or what technicians say is now “extended” which means it is ripe for a sharp pullback – a profit taking phase. Going into today’s all-important Fed rate decision, our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded

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Special Bulletin: June 9, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To SPX 4,300… and Beyond?  The uptrend continues. Since our C.M.O went green 2 weeks ago, the major indexes have pushed to new highs for the year and to index levels not seen since the summer of ’22. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light (SPX at 4,313.97). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2

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Special Bulletin: May 26, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment And it’s off to the Races Again  In the face of great uncertainty, big investment institutions are selectively putting massive amounts of capital back to work… and as such, our mathematical signal has improved and we must follow the markets lead. As of this morning, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light (as of

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Special Bulletin: May 23, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Not So Fast  The stock market may be experiencing a “false start.” If you are familiar with track or swimming events, you know what that term means. As in the world of sports, where you get a second chance after committing a false start, the same is often true in the stock market. The push to 2023 new highs (aka. showing indication) on

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Special Bulletin: May 18, 2023 (2pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Don’t Look Now, but New Highs for 2023 The stock market is doing the unthinkable: it’s going up in the face of severe worries and persistent threats. As we have been stating in our past few posts, the market was showing remarkable resiliency in spite of serious “news” headwinds.  To make the point, we posted this just last week… “We get it. Some

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Special Bulletin: May 10, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Seriously Concerned, yet Properly Hopeful What if your favorite sports team went 2-14 in their last 16 games? That would stink. It might even test your patience as a fan. You would no doubt be concerned, but based on your years of loyalty you’d probably remain hopeful. If you’re a “bull” and a stock market fan that is one way of explaining what

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Special Bulletin: April 18, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Death and Taxes Happy tax filing deadline day! They used to say, “There are only 2 things certain in life; death and taxes.” While the odds are pretty good that we will all die (it’s a 1 out of 1 chance unless you were Elijah or Enoch), not every American pays taxes apparently, at least income taxes. I recently saw an article on

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Special Bulletin: March 28, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is a Turn Near? As of the close, March 28th, with the SPX at 3,971.27, our signal was upgraded to a yellow light. The subtle (under the surface) improvements in the market’s technical indicators have moved our C.M.O. to an improved condition. Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” (see top of

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Special Bulletin: March 21, 2023

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Can We Just Call it Orange? Too bad traffic lights don’t have orange in their sequence. The natural outcome of blending red and yellow is, of course, orange. And that is theoretically where our C.M.O. finds itself as of today’s close. Currently red but so close to going yellow! If I hear another person say that tomorrow’s Fed rate decision is probably the

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Special Bulletin: March 9, 2023 (12p Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Financials: A Harbinger of Things to Come? Last Friday we posited that stocks generally don’t go higher as rates rise when we wrote, “Higher interest rates and a rising stock market generally don’t go together, at least not for long. Remember the old adage “When rates are high stocks will die; when rates are low stocks will grow” in our last post? No

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Special Bulletin: March 3, 2023 (10:21am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment “If the Market Doesn’t Do what it is Supposed to Do…” Our team often uses one of our very own market axioms, “If the market doesn’t do what it is supposed to do, it ain’t gonna.” Simply stated, we take historical outcomes and compare them to current technical & fundamental conditions to develop a mathematical set of expectations for each day – the

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Special Bulletin: March 1, 2023 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Moment of Truth, Again The moment of truth for the bulls has arrived. A significant move from here is likely in short order. “Up or down?” you ask. We will soon find out. The math of the market has been pushed to the brink with this morning’s action. This is where the institutions execute their real intentions. If indeed the market is

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Outlook Archive