The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment T-Minus 27 and Counting… As the election nears, anticipation (anxiety for some) is building. In addition to that, Hurricane Milton is on the verge of hitting Tampa while the Hurricane Helene clean up continues. Part of our team has been traveling on business over the past several days and observed a lot of economic activity on the highways and byways of the east

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment NC Needs Your Help/ Helene Aftermath is Awful Autumn is normally a very festive time of the year here on the east coast but this year has been tragically marred by Hurricane Helene. There are so many deaths and so much destruction – the images from the storm are just gut-wrenching! The mountain communities of North Carolina have been hit particularly hard. Personally,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What Does the Fed Know? Our original title was going to be “Now that was Political.” Of course, that is in reference to the Fed’s 0.50% interest rate cut last Wednesday with just less than 50 days to go until the election. Historically, the Fed tries to stay out of politics and will make its moves well before or wait till after the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Market’s Next Direction? It’s Debatable Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 2:30pm today, 09/11/24, with the SPX @ 5,518.19. While the Nasdaq continues to trade under its all-important 50-day mav, the S&P500 has moved back above its 50-day mav (so far). The bulls are trying to stop the decline and rally the indexes

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment An Early Fall?  I love the colors of autumn! I’ve heard certain reports predicating an early fall this year. Early or not I just hope it is a visually brilliant and elongated one. More color and for longer! The stock market “fall” appears to be showing up right on time, though. Historically, September is not good for investors’ wealth. Now I get it:

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Leaves Aren’t the Only Things that Fall in September/October Welcome to September! What a beautiful time of the year! Cooler temps, bonfires, pennant races, sweatshirts and football games – all a part of a wonderful new season: Fall. But historically leaves aren’t the only things that drop in autumn- stocks often do too. First things first: Friday’s trade during the last half hour

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is the “Powell Put” in? What is a “put?” Simply stated: a financial instrument intended to limit downside price risk. With his Jackson Hole speech last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appears to have effectively put a “put” in under the stock market in the form of future interest rate cuts in the event of softening corporate earnings (and falling stock prices). Why

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Up: At Least Temporarily In our last post we posed the question: Where do we go from here? The stock market, which is in the middle of a new rally attempt, is answering the question and it appears to be “UP, at least temporarily.” Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the close yesterday

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Where do we go from Here? The stock market is in the middle of a new rally attempt and is waiting for an official “follow through day” (FTD) to confirm the new rally. Long time readers of this post know that not all FTD’s work. In other words, just because a FTD happens and confirms the new rally attempt, it does not automatically

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Opposite of Fed day, Indeed As posted on our C.M.O landing page yesterday, “our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 11:00am on 08/01/24 with the SPX @ 5,487.80). Our Core Four has 1 green and 3 red lights, with a VIX that is surging above its own 50-day mav.  The S&P500 and

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Biggest Fed Meeting Ever? Some are saying that tomorrow’s Fed decision has the potential to be huge. Maybe the biggest meeting ever… at least since the last time it was the biggest. We don’t know about all that, but we do agree that a lot is at stake this week. Can the Fed cut rates right before an election and not look intentionally

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Say it isn’t so, Joe We are grieved for the American people. Our nation deserves better than this. The leaders on the DNP (as well as their minions in the press corps) have done a grave disservice to not only their party but to the American people at large. Our election (selection) process shouldn’t be run as a high-drama game or an overly

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Rotation, Rotation, Rotation / Fight! Fight! Fight! Everyone knows the three most important words in real estate are: “location, location, location!” Well, in the stock market it appears that the three most important words are “rotation, rotation, rotation!” And if you think about it, they are very similar. “Location” is where everyone wants to be now, and “rotation” is where institutions are going

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Debt Clock Remember back when we used to hear a lot about the “Debt Ceiling?” At certain times in history, it was all over the news and you couldn’t get away from it. Truth is many Americans believed there was such a thing and that it mattered. They even hoped Congress would respect it and stay under it. Now before you laugh

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Declaration of Independence Question: Do they have the 4th of July in England? Answer: Yes, it comes between the 3rd and the 5th. Now what if the question asked, “Do they celebrate…?” What a difference one word makes! The same is true when discussing the Declaration of Independence. Several years ago, our Triumphant team made a declaration of independence when we transitioned

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Another Big PCE Number is Coming on Friday If a week without a big economic release or a Fed meeting would seem rather unusual now, this week won’t disappoint. Brace yourself for “another big PCE number” on Friday (insert YAWN). Be careful! The moment most participants get bored with key economic releases is the moment they matter the most. Complacency should be a

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment At New Highs: Caution is Warranted / Happy Father’s Day, Dad? Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (the last signal change was at 10:30am on 05/29/24 with the SPX @ 5,277.66). Our Core Four improved slightly this week to 2 green and 2 red lights. The VIX remains well under its 50-day mav – a short-term positive While

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Hurricane Season Starts and the World Awaits Powell Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (the recent signal change came at 10:30am on 05/29/24 with the SPX @ 5,277.66). Our Core Four improved slightly this week to 1 green, 2 yellow and 1 red light. The VIX traded back under its own 50-day mav this week and remains low,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The Downgrade Happened / Thank You Lord for Grandpa Brooks Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 10:30am on 05/29/24 (with the SPX @ 5,277.66) as seen on our Linked-In and C.M.O. posts that day. While the S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes are still holding above their 50-day mav’s, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Near a Downgrade to Yellow / Thank You to those who gave it All A “follow-through day” finally happened on the 18th day of the rally attempt on May 15th confirming our C.M.O. signal upgrade to green on the prior day (05/14). Higher volume showed up on those back-to-back days, too. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Up on Higher Volume with No “Vertical Violation” Means “Green” Skies  Volume finally showed up yesterday and on an up day! Last week we wrote, “Up volume is to a bull market in stocks what oxygen is to your lungs. Without it, you can’t last for long.” This morning the sub-peak pattern we wrote about has been negated and the market is beginning

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Will this “Subpeak” Lead to a “Vertical Violation,” aka Crash? Where, oh where, can the volume be? That was the original title of this post but the potential for an eminent sharp price decline in the stock market necessitated the new title. Up volume is to a bull market in stocks what oxygen is to your lungs. Without it, you can’t last for

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment May the Fourth be with You We don’t believe in luck. It is obvious to us that God gives favor, or blessings, and that Providence is a real factor at work in the world. So, while Star Wars was a lot of fun, the real “Force” has created and is sustaining the entire universe. May that force, Jesus, be with you. It is

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment As Serious as a Heart Attack As the human heart is in desperate need of strong blood flow to remain healthy and to work properly/fruitfully, the same is true of the capital markets, and in particular of equities.  We seem to be at a “who’s gonna blink first” moment. Big investors are sure rate cuts are coming. It’s the life-blood of stocks! They

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Rare Technical Occurrence Last Monday we updated our website to our “red” warning stop light and shared on our C.M.O. landing page (and on our Linked-In social media account like usual) this update, “Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 1:15pm on 04/15/24 (SPX 5,110.77). The general stock market indexes are testing

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Catalyst: Has it Arrived? Last week we wrote, “We see a “low (downward) pressure” system fast approaching for the stock market. The question now is will it be just a gentle shower or a more violent storm?”  That question is being answered today, Saturday, April 13th. Due to yesterday’s news of a possible Iranian attack on Israel over this weekend, we waited

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment April Showers or Stormy Weather? We see a “low (downward) pressure” system fast approaching for the stock market. The question now is will it be just a gentle shower or a more violent storm? The market seems to be sputtering on the diminishing fumes of rate-cut hopes for June. The stock market (as measured by the major indexes) remains priced for perfection. At

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Is He Worthy? He is! As the first quarter comes to an end, this is a great time for reflection. The year has started off well, as far as the markets are concerned. Even the Presidential political process has firmed up. Much is at stake in the remaining 9 months. More on that below. While the quarter was very solid, the major indexes

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Back to Green, but don’t get Comfortable All-time highs are hardly the place where an investor should get aggressive. Having said that, if you think about it, the stock market has been hitting ATH’s our whole lives. At least that is the mantra of the “buy and hold” crowd. Traditionally stock market outcomes show that new highs beget new highs… until they don’t

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Beware the “Violent-3” Market participants, traders especially, are aware of the term “shakeout.” There’s a particular form of shakeout that we are focusing on today and at TPM we call it the “violent-3.”  As its name implies, a “violent-3” (or V-3) is a sharp, violent move down in the stock market. In a large majority of cases, it lasts 3 trading days and

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The Fate of the Union Enjoy/ĕn-joi′/ To receive pleasure or satisfaction from. *  I do not enjoy political theater. Union /yoo͞n′yən/ The act of uniting or the state of being united. * We are, after all, called the United States. A second definition of union sounds timelier and preferable: A combination so formed, especially an alliance or confederation of people, parties, or political

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Time for March Madness in the Market? It’s that time of year again already! The Superbowl is over, spring training is underway, and the “brackets” are coming together. Who’s your favorite? Are they hot right now, or just a perennial powerhouse that shows up when it’s prime time? Or are you the agnostic, analytical type that looks at all the stats and enters

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  All Eyes on Nvidia and AI My grandson & I have recently begun enjoying launching Estes rockets. The thrill of seeing his rockets soar into the bright blue sky with a head snapping speed is exhilarating and captivating for both of us- for the whole family. Watching them come back down (which they do quickly) is a bit more nerve-racking. Will the wind

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Shot Across the Bow? Froth. Euphoria. Complacency. Three words that every investor/trader needs to be able to identify. Or, ignore them at your own portfolio’s peril.  Ravenous bullishness is not a reason to “sell all and head for the hills.” It is true that excessive bullishness can last for weeks, even months, before finally yielding to a sharp correction. It isn’t the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Will Pitchers & Catchers Please Prepare to Report? You may be wondering why write a post about baseball during the week of the Superbowl. For most fans, the season is all but over. All that remains is who gets the “bling.” I grant you; this year’s game should be a great one between 2 dominant and talented teams, but football is a winter

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Opposite the Fed Day? Many investors are aware of the term “opposite the Fed day.” It has been observed that often (a good majority of instances) the stock market will do the opposite of its violent move from the Fed rate announcement day on the day after. So, with that tidbit today should be up. Voila! 🙂 Today is also the first day

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  The January Effect is Fading? Failing? Our internal indicators, as measured by our “Core Four,” have quickly shifted back to yellow. A VIX that is creeping up and an elevated investor sentiment reading are the culprits. However, except for a couple days of “stalling” price action on the S&P500 this week, the market’s uptrend still seems intact. But our “Core Four” is detecting

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Look Back at Last Week’s Prudent Post All-time highs mean “green” skies ahead? Generally, new highs beget new highs and new lows beget new lows. That is, until they don’t. For now, it’s better said, “strength begets strength.” In last weeks post we stated, “This yellow signal may not last for long especially if the major indexes rip up and off the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  A Second Test of the 21-day This Year is Upon Us Technicals and fundamentals, when used together properly, are a dynamic duo.  One reveals the “footprints of money” and the other shares the “heartbeat of the moment.” Never forget this: Both are constantly changing. Our Current Market Outlook blends the most important data from both schools of thought and produces a time tested,

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment  Happy New Year! Our God Reigns! New year… same God – the Lord Jesus. Hallelujah for that! Many investors are concerned about what 2024 may have in store for them. Others have thrown caution to the wind and are chanting, “don’t fight the fed!’ To say that a lot is at stake this year would be an understatement. Let’s take a quick inventory