Our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend”” and our light is “green“. Based on underlying technical conditions, the current environment for making money in superior growth stocks & general stock market indexes has improved and investors can begin deploying new capital into growth stocks and the funds/ETF’s of the major stock market indexes. This remains a very news driven market, so remember the technical conditions can deteriorate quickly with any major negative development.

Technical “internals” continue to confirm the uptrend. The S&P500 went deep yesterday and again today with fresh all-time highs and created a walk-off celebration on Wall Street! The party was somewhat muted, however, due to the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial averages to do the same. The technical condition of the stock market remains sound and our Current Market Outlook is “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four”

Technical “internals” are improving as headline risk is decreasing.  (11am update) The technical condition of the stock market has improved and as a result our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show one yellow and three green signals. Net result: the uptrend is underway again. One caveat to this good news is that the number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and

Technical “internals” have weakened while headline risk has increased.  The technical condition of the stock market has deteriorated just enough recently to push our Current Market Outlook to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show two green and two yellow signals. Net result: the uptrend is under pressure. With an increasing number of Distribution Days on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq on top of severe price damage to many

Technical “internals” have improved, but headline risk remains.  The technical condition of the current stock market rally has improved to the point where our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Our “Core Four” internal indicators show all green signals. Net result: the uptrend is gaining traction. While uncertainties regarding the China trade war and the next Fed interest rate decision continue to hang over the market,

Investor discretion is still advised. The stock market remains at a major inflection point. The current rally attempt is being held hostage by negative reports regarding the China trade war and angst over the next Fed interest rate decision. The bulls are waiting for a catalyst to drive it higher, while the bears are convinced a recession is eminent and the next major leg is down. All in all, the outcome of the current standoff

Warning! Investor discretion is advised. Ok. So much for the serious tone. But why so dramatic? The stock market is at a major inflection point. (noun: a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point.) Over the next several days, the current stock market rally attempt will be extremely vulnerable to significant negative news regarding trade wars or Fed interest rate decisions. At the same time, the market is hoping for (and seriously

The major stock market indexes were swamped by intense Distribution (professional selling) again today and undercut their 50 day moving averages like a Jianshi warriors sword through bamboo. A rejection by the Chinese to buy American farm products and a simultaneous blatant devaluation of their currency pushed global stock markets off the Great Wall. Our “core 4” market internal indicators are now all in the RED zone and our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded

Has the Powell pivot turned into a Powell pounding? Probably not. It seems like the 1/4 percent rate cut was meant to be more of a present given to the stock market than a punishment. But at least for today, the market pouted that it didn’t get its 1/2 percent cut. The main stock market indexes succumbed to intense professional selling (aka Distribution), which started during Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s press conference, and as of

The summers heat is not the only thing that’s hot right now! Continued record closing highs on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, and a 1.6% surge in the heretofore struggling Russell 2000 small-cap index turned up the heat on the bear camp today. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. We are calling this bull move “The Timex Rally”. Why? Because it takes a licking and keeps on ticking.

New all-time highs on the S&P 500 are creating fireworks in the financial media! With the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial indexes just a whisper away themselves, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. Two weeks ago we wrote, “For now, Mr. Market is saying “do as I do, not as the news media says”. The markets’ internals continue to improve and the rally is expanding. No Distribution Days

How tweet it is! (Please pardon our humor, but with todays market action we couldn’t resist.) The Presidents early morning positive tweet about upcoming trade talks with China sparked a buying frenzy and caused the major stock market indexes to bolt ahead on strong volume. In the process, todays move confirmed the June 7th follow-through day and caused an upgrade in Our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light. For

Today the market celebrated hopeful good news regarding Mexico like it was cinco de mayo, and in the process confirmed a “follow-through day” (FT day) on day 4 of its new rally attempt. Then after the close today President Trump announced an indefinite suspension of tariffs on Mexican goods coming into our country. While this news is good and should bode well for a continuation of the current rally, investors should watch the market action

The major stock market indexes rebounded sharply today after setting new price lows for this current correction just yesterday. While the strong snap-back rally in response to Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments this morning was encouraging, officially today was only day 1 of a new rally attempt. Unfortunately, todays move came with lower total trading volume than the previous days rout. As such, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in Correction” with a “red“ light.

(11:30am update) Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in Correction” and our light is now “red“. The stock markets uptrend has slipped into a correction. With last nights fourth consecutive close under the 50 day moving average by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, and this mornings “fears of global economic slowing” sharp sell-off on top of an already weak technical backdrop (mentioned yesterday), our official signal is now downgraded to a “red” light.

(11am update) Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is still “yellow“. The stock markets uptrend is hanging on by a technical thread. With three successive closes under the 50 day moving average by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, the market must make an immediate strong move up to keep from succumbing to the growing selling pressure and being downgraded to a “red” light. On a more positive note, the market

Our Current Market Outlook has been changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is now “yellow“. The stock market came under significant selling today in response to escalating trade tensions with China, and in the process knifed through the first of two key moving averages and sank further under an important trendline. The bulls ability to support stocks and drive prices into all-time high territory will face a major test this week as worries

As 2 of the 3 major stock market indexes plow into all-time high price territory, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” and our light is “green“. Currently, each of our “core 4” internal indicators are green. Our regular readers know that our signal turned bullish (green) on January 17th and has stayed there since. This once again proves the internal math of the market trumps the TV talking heads and investors fickle

With the full effects of spring beginning to sprout across the landscape, there’s more green than just the great outdoors. Our Current Market Outlook light remains “green” as the market’s solid uptrend has been resilient. The stock market almost succumbed to a late frost twice in March but managed to avoid slipping into a caution condition, or yellow light, as buyers emerged (not being afraid to see their shadows) and the indexes kited higher. With a gentle

Our light remains green… barely! Today a second of our “core 4” internal indicators went “yellow” and created a 1st-stage sell signal. A third of the “core 4” is at a tipping point. For the second time this month the stock market status is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light, which would cause a change in our Current Market Outlook to uptrend under pressure. Just over 2 weeks ago the market

The market suffered Distribution (professional selling) again today while the S&P500 & the Nasdaq both sliced down through and closed under an important short-term moving average. As of today, one of our “core 4” indicators turned yellow. The market is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light which would change our current market outlook to uptrend under pressure. Tomorrow (Friday) will be a key day to see how investors respond to the

Neither a late February winter chill, nor a chilling testimony by Amb. Robert Lighthizer could cause bulls to hibernate today. The market continues to leave the “technically” climactic Christmas eve low in the rear view mirror and use the follow-through day of January 4th as a launching pad. The strength and speed of this up-move has been almost textbook when comparing it to other “blast-off” moves after bear markets of the past. While the rally

As we reflect fondly on the rally of 2019 this eve of Valentines day, it appears that institutions are again falling in love with stocks and embracing the markets rally. Their desire has been re-ignited for stocks as they have offered sweet returns since the follow-through day of January 4th. Investors admiration appears the strongest for the growth stocks of the computer software -Enterprise group, the darlings of the new year. While last years market

“As goes January, so goes the year.” Really? Is it that easy? NO! While that old adage (the January barometer) does have some strong evidence behind it, at best it has only been accurate about 75% of the time since 1945. (Source: Fidelity Active Investor) Still, that’s not too bad. However, if you look a little closer (how about 2018) you find that a super January led to a choppy mid-year and an awful last

“Green” is the new black. This week the math of the market sent bullish signals as the markets achieved the final piece of the necessary “core 4” specific technical events to affect an upgrade in our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” and a “green” light. Today the S&P500 successfully closed over its 50day moving average, just 2 days after the Nasdaq did the same. That core element came on the heals of the new

Day 7. Day 7 did indeed yield a “Follow-Through day”! The S&P500 & Dow enjoyed meaningful price gains on volume that increased from the previous day, and in the process confirmed a new uptrend according to the disciplined work of Investors Business Daily. However, based on our disciplined, rules-based risk management system, only two of the “core 4” specific technical events (the bottom-building process) that are needed to affect a change back to a green light

Day 6 (10:30 AM Update) Day 6 of a potential new rally attempt is all the market has so far for the bulls. The market continues in a correction that has now been exacerbated by the admission of a revenue shortfall from Apple yesterday after the close. This revelation has caused reverberations across the technology sector. Currently the Nasdaq is off almost 200 pts or nearly 3% and the Dow is down over 600 points. Prudent investors

Day 1 (11:30 AM Update). Day 1 of a potential new rally attempt is all that you can make of yesterdays massive move up. The trend of the market is still down. While yesterday was the first ever +1,000 point up move in the Dow Jones Industrial average, it was no where near the top percentage single days gains of the past 90 years. In fact, according to research from Investors Business Daily, the 9

(2:00 PM Update) The stock market has officially fallen into correction mode today with the Dow, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all down around 1.50% and with all 3 indexes having undercut their recent lows. Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is now “red”. As noted in our recent posts, the markets internals were already weak and the young uptrend was under growing selling pressure. That selling pressure followed

Throughout our careers we have heard it said that “the market climbs a wall of worry“. Historically when the markets are in an uptrend, the institutions and media sound the alarms of possible threats which keeps the small investors (the public) nervous and largely out of the market. That certainly was the case in 2017 and part of 2018. We think the narrative may have changed as of October 4th. The motto may now be “the market

Remain defensive but be prepared to act decisively this week and especially in the week ahead. Complete your watch list of great companies that exhibit super fundamentals with solid technical support, and plan your investment steps now during this calm before the storm of activity. Your action plan should also include defensive steps to take in the event that the news is NOT good. While the “news” seems scary currently, in time, this situation will

The fledgling market rally that started over two weeks ago, and was confirmed by a “follow through” day last Wednesday in response to the election, is hanging on by a thread. In our (11/07/18) post we wrote… The key risks for a failure of a F.T. (follow through) day come in the first 3 days after a new signal. If the stock market can advance or just sit tight for the next 3 days and NOT experience Distribution

The votes are in and apparently the winner is “gridlock”. What a difference a week makes! Today, on day #7 of a new attempted rally, the stock market experienced a “follow-through” day and confirmed a new uptrend based on the price and volume sequence we discussed previously. It is important to remember that while every major bull market of the past 100 years has started with a follow-through day, not every follow-through day leads to

Happy Reformation day! On this the 501st anniversary of Martin Luther’s bold act, and the eve of All Saints Day, the markets are making their first real attempt at a new rally. The sequence to determine when a bottom is in (mentioned in our last bulletin) may be starting to play out. Monday’s internal technical action sported a ray of hope with two minor “positive non-confirmations”; a contraction in the number of stocks hitting 52

The stock market dove deeper into correction territory today as a good EPS release from bellwether Boeing wasn’t enough to cause the market to takeoff.  Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” and our light is “red”. A hallmark of a weak market is one that opens up nicely but then reverses during the day and closes down sharply. That technical pattern has been on full display lately. That is an institutional distribution characteristic. As

The stock market has officially fallen into correction mode today. As of 3pm the Dow is down nearly 600 points and the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are both down around 2.50% – 3.00%. Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is now “red”. As noted in our post on (10/04/18), the markets  internals were already weakening last week and the uptrend was under growing selling pressure. That selling pressure

Mr. Market spoke today and it wasn’t just sweet nothings in investors ears. The NASDAQ experienced its 9th day of high volume professional selling (Distribution) in just the last 25 trading days and sliced through 2 key price support areas by the close. The S&P500 closed down under just 1 key price support area, and on lower trading volume than the previous day. (A slight positive non-confirmation) However, other technical indicators, which began flashing early warning signs

As the quarter came to an end, stock markets in the US continued to be the darlings around the world in 2018. Thank you Mr. President! The markets uptrend, which has primarily been driven by excellent corporate earnings and the expectations of more of the same in the future, continues even through the historically challenging Aug. to Oct. period. This past week revealed a slight change in the markets underlining tone, although not enough to

ALL-TIME HIGHS! And this with higher interest rates coming and an ongoing battle to make “free-trade” fairer for the US around the world. It’s noteworthy that the Nasdaq did NOT hit another all-time high…yet. As we posted back in June & August of 2017 (see below), it’s T.I.N.A’s fault that the stock market has gone up this far. TINA means There Is No Alternative, to stocks that is, for most money managers to invest in to derive a decent

Profit taking hit the stock market as traders opted to react negatively to a story posted today by a major news agency that quoted “anonymous sources” as saying that the President was going to do something next week about tariffs towards China.  Really? “Thanks for the heads-up Mr. Media.” As a result of the so-called news, the market tanked quickly (yet briefly) as traders hit the sell button to take profits. As the day wore on, and