Current
Market
Outlook

Honor the Lord with your wealth… Proverbs 3:9®

CMOYellowLight

Our Current Market Outlook has been changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is now “yellow“. Based on underlying technical conditions, the current environment for making money in superior growth stocks & general stock market indexes has weakened and is displaying growing signs of distribution (professional selling). Investing in stocks now is riskier than normal, and investors should reserve buys only for exceptional ideas. While only 1 of our “core 4” indicators is yellow, stay alert for additional negative technical developments in the “internals”, specifically additional Distribution Days and a sharp price decline through the 50 day moving average, that might signal a change in the markets direction.

Special Bulletin: May 7th, 2019

Our Current Market Outlook has been changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is now “yellow“. Based on underlying technical conditions, the current environment for making money in superior growth stocks & general stock market indexes has weakened and is displaying growing signs of distribution (professional selling). Investing in stocks now is riskier than normal, and investors should reserve buys only for exceptional ideas. While only 1 of our “core 4” indicators is yellow,

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Special Bulletin: April 29th, 2019

As 2 of the 3 major stock market indexes plow into all-time high price territory, our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in an Uptrend” and our light is “green“. Currently, each of our “core 4” internal indicators are green. Our regular readers know that our signal turned bullish (green) on January 17th and has stayed there since. This once again proves the internal math of the market trumps the TV talking heads and investors fickle

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Special Bulletin: April 11th 2019

Special Bulletin: April 11th 2019 With the full effects of spring beginning to sprout across the landscape, there’s more green than just the great outdoors. Our Current Market Outlook light remains “green” as the market’s solid uptrend has been resilient. The stock market almost succumbed to a late frost twice in March but managed to avoid slipping into a caution condition, or yellow light, as buyers emerged (not being afraid to see their shadows) and the indexes

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Special Bulletin: March 25th, 2019

Special Bulletin: March 25th 2019 Our light remains green… barely! Today a second of our “core 4” internal indicators went “yellow” and created a 1st-stage sell signal. A third of the “core 4” is at a tipping point. For the second time this month the stock market status is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light, which would cause a change in our Current Market Outlook to uptrend under pressure. Just over

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Special Bulletin: March 7th, 2019​

The market suffered Distribution (professional selling) again today while the S&P500 & the Nasdaq both sliced down through and closed under an important short-term moving average. As of today, one of our “core 4” indicators turned yellow. The market is on the verge of slipping to an official yellow light which would change our current market outlook to uptrend under pressure. Tomorrow (Friday) will be a key day to see how investors respond to the

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Special Bulletin: February 27th, 2019

Neither a late February winter chill, nor a chilling testimony by Amb. Robert Lighthizer could cause bulls to hibernate today. The market continues to leave the “technically” climactic Christmas eve low in the rear view mirror and use the follow-through day of January 4th as a launching pad. The strength and speed of this up-move has been almost textbook when comparing it to other “blast-off” moves after bear markets of the past. While the rally

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Special Bulletin: February 13th, 2019

As we reflect fondly on the rally of 2019 this eve of Valentines day, it appears that institutions are again falling in love with stocks and embracing the markets rally. Their desire has been re-ignited for stocks as they have offered sweet returns since the follow-through day of January 4th. Investors admiration appears the strongest for the growth stocks of the computer software -Enterprise group, the darlings of the new year.  While last years market

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Special Bulletin: January 31st, 2019

“As goes January, so goes the year.” Really? Is it that easy? NO! While that old adage (the January barometer) does have some strong evidence behind it, at best it has only been accurate about 75% of the time since 1945. (Source: Fidelity Active Investor) Still, that’s not too bad. However, if you look a little closer (how about 2018) you find that a super January led to a choppy mid-year and an awful last

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Special Bulletin: January 17th, 2019

“Green” is the new black. This week the math of the market sent bullish signals as the markets achieved the final piece of the necessary “core 4” specific technical events to affect an upgrade in our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” and a “green” light. Today the S&P500 successfully closed over its 50day moving average, just 2 days after the Nasdaq did the same. That core element came on the heals of the new

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Special Bulletin: January 5th, 2019

Day 7. Day 7 did indeed yield a “Follow-Through day”! The S&P500 & Dow enjoyed meaningful price gains on volume that increased from the previous day, and in the process confirmed a new uptrend according to the disciplined work of Investors Business Daily. However, based on our disciplined, rules-based risk management system, only two of the “core 4” specific technical events (the bottom-building process) that are needed to affect a change back to a green light

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Special Bulletin: January 3rd, 2019

Day 6 (10:30 AM Update) Day 6 of a potential new rally attempt is all the market has so far for the bulls. The market continues in a correction that has now been exacerbated by the admission of a revenue shortfall from Apple yesterday after the close. This revelation has caused reverberations across the technology sector. Currently the Nasdaq is off almost 200 pts or nearly 3% and the Dow is down over 600 points. Prudent investors

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Special Bulletin: December 27th, 2018

Day 1 (11:30 AM Update). Day 1 of a potential new rally attempt is all that you can make of yesterdays massive move up. The trend of the market is still down. While yesterday was the first ever +1,000 point up move in the Dow Jones Industrial average, it was no where near the top percentage single days gains of the past 90 years. In fact, according to research from Investors Business Daily, the 9

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Special Bulletin: December 17th, 2018

(2:00 PM Update) The stock market has officially fallen into correction mode today with the Dow, S&P 500 & Nasdaq all down around 1.50% and with all 3 indexes having undercut their recent lows. Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is now “red”. As noted in our recent posts, the markets internals were already weak and the young uptrend was under growing selling pressure. That selling pressure followed

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Special Bulletin: December 8th, 2018

Throughout our careers we have heard it said that “the market climbs a wall of worry“. Historically when the markets are in an uptrend, the institutions and media sound the alarms of possible threats which keeps the small investors (the public) nervous and largely out of the market. That certainly was the case in 2017 and part of 2018. We think the narrative may have changed as of October 4th. The motto may now be “the market

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Special Bulletin: November 27th, 2018

Remain defensive but be prepared to act decisively this week and especially in the week ahead. Complete your watch list of great companies that exhibit super fundamentals with solid technical support, and plan your investment steps now during this calm before the storm of activity. Your action plan should also include defensive steps to take in the event that the news is NOT good. While the “news” seems scary currently, in time, this situation will

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Special Bulletin: November 14th, 2018

The fledgling market rally that started over two weeks ago, and was confirmed by a “follow through” day last Wednesday in response to the election, is hanging on by a thread. In our (11/07/18) post we wrote… The key risks for a failure of a F.T. (follow through) day come in the first 3 days after a new signal. If the stock market can advance or just sit tight for the next 3 days and NOT experience Distribution

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Special Bulletin: November 7th, 2018

The votes are in and apparently the winner is “gridlock”. What a difference a week makes! Today, on day #7 of a new attempted rally, the stock market experienced a “follow-through” day and confirmed a new uptrend based on the price and volume sequence we discussed previously. It is important to remember that while every major bull market of the past 100 years has started with a follow-through day, not every follow-through day leads to

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Special Bulletin: October 31st, 2018

Happy Reformation day! On this the 501st anniversary of Martin Luther’s bold act, and the eve of All Saints Day, the markets are making their first real attempt at a new rally. The sequence to determine when a bottom is in (mentioned in our last bulletin) may be starting to play out. Monday’s internal technical action sported a ray of hope with two minor “positive non-confirmations”; a contraction in the number of stocks hitting 52

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Special Bulletin: October 24th, 2018

The stock market dove deeper into correction territory today as a good EPS release from bellwether Boeing wasn’t enough to cause the market to takeoff.  Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” and our light is “red”. A hallmark of a weak market is one that opens up nicely but then reverses during the day and closes down sharply. That technical pattern has been on full display lately. That is an institutional distribution characteristic. As

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Special Bulletin: October 10th, 2018

The stock market has officially fallen into correction mode today. As of 3pm the Dow is down nearly 600 points and the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are both down around 2.50% – 3.00%. Our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is now “red”. As noted in our post on (10/04/18), the markets  internals were already weakening last week and the uptrend was under growing selling pressure. That selling pressure

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Special Bulletin: October 4th, 2018

Mr. Market spoke today and it wasn’t just sweet nothings in investors ears. The NASDAQ experienced its 9th day of high volume professional selling (Distribution) in just the last 25 trading days and sliced through 2 key price support areas by the close. The S&P500 closed down under just 1 key price support area, and on lower trading volume than the previous day. (A slight positive non-confirmation) However, other technical indicators, which began flashing early warning signs

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Special Bulletin: September 28th, 2019

As the quarter came to an end, stock markets in the US continued to be the darlings around the world in 2018. Thank you Mr. President! The markets uptrend, which has primarily been driven by excellent corporate earnings and the expectations of more of the same in the future, continues even through the historically challenging Aug. to Oct. period. This past week revealed a slight change in the markets underlining tone, although not enough to

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Special Bulletin: September 20th, 2018

ALL-TIME HIGHS! And this with higher interest rates coming and an ongoing battle to make “free-trade” fairer for the US around the world. It’s noteworthy that the Nasdaq did NOT hit another all-time high…yet. As we posted back in June & August of 2017 (see below), it’s T.I.N.A’s fault that the stock market has gone up this far. TINA means There Is No Alternative, to stocks that is, for most money managers to invest in to derive a decent

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Special Bulletin: August 30th, 2018

Profit taking hit the stock market as traders opted to react negatively to a story posted today by a major news agency that quoted “anonymous sources” as saying that the President was going to do something next week about tariffs towards China.  Really? “Thanks for the heads-up Mr. Media.” As a result of the so-called news, the market tanked quickly (yet briefly) as traders hit the sell button to take profits. As the day wore on, and

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Special Bulletin: August 22nd, 2018

“Climbing a wall of worry” is the answer to the question “How is the market doing lately?”. In spite of all the negative news, investors continue to seek better returns via investing in the stock market. Thanks to our disciplined market analysis process, our official signal changed to a green light (see the July 12th comments below) and brilliantly caught the recent rally in equities. It has been said that “money goes where it is treated best”

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Special Bulletin: July 31st, 2018

After the recent pounding in the heretofore unstoppable tech stocks over the past several days, the stock market bounced higher Tuesday on a welcomed pick-up in trading volume. While our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Resumes” with a green light, due to recent unusual price weakness in key leading stocks investors should become more selective when deploying new capital. Any new equity buys should be directed towards companies that sport high institutional conviction. Keeping your

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Special Bulletin: July 12th, 2018

On Tuesday, July 10th the last negative aspect in the stock markets current underlying technical condition turned positive according to our proprietary risk management discipline. The recent rally has improved the stock markets health to the point where it has necessitated an upgrade in our Current Market Outlook to “Uptrend Resumes” with a green light. In case you were wondering, that last negative technical had been in place since January 19th, 2018. The hopeful road to 2nd half 2018

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Special Bulletin: June 29th, 2018

 During the past week, as we neared the celebration of our great nation’s independence, our stock markets displayed fireworks of their own. Sharp downdrafts followed by light volume recovery bounces, however, did not instill bravery in the actions of many institutions. One could have thought they heard someone singing “…the quote machines red glare, the profits bursting in air…” as the major indexes swooned for several days in a row before catching a bit of

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Special Bulletin: June 19th, 2018

The “on again/off again/& back on again” possible tariff trade war took a step in the “on” direction again last night. Stock markets all over the world reacted harshly today, especially in China. The 3 major indexes in the US all suffered a fresh day of professional selling, aka a “Distribution Day”. As a result, our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” and is under a “yellow” light. One bright spot since Februarys sell off has

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Special Bulletin: May 31st, 2018

 “L’Italia è il paese più bello del mondo, su questo non ci piove!” That common Italian phrase is translated as “Italy is the most beautiful country in the world, there’s no doubt about it!” While Italy may be a beautiful travel destination, to investors around the world this week Italian government debt is NOT a beautiful destination for their dollars. A populist backlash and troubles securing a new government have put a negative spotlight on Italian sovereign

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Special Bulletin: May 17th, 2018

“To sell, or not to sell: that is the question: Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to hold through a possible summer market sell-off hoping for higher prices, or to take action early against possible losses, and by selling protect capital?” With apologies to Shakespeare fans around the world for the creative license, the important point from the above revision is the question on the minds of many investors of our time; should I “sell in May

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Special Bulletin: April 27th, 2018

Fueled by great first quarter earnings releases from Mega-cap tech names and other large companies on Thursday, the stock market took a good step towards reviving its fledgling recent rally attempt. After the close of the market, several large companies (technology giants, in particular) released earnings that were also received well by investors and as a result sent the Nasdaq futures soaring overnight. This bodes well for the markets action coming on Friday (27th) and may prove

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Special Bulletin: April 13th, 2018

The major stock market indexes failed to cross over key price resistance levels (50 day moving averages) and then staged negative price reversals today. As a result, our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. While the days action was disappointing for the bulls, there was a silver lining; the sell-off came in lower trading volume lessening the sting of the decline. Recent technical action has been encouraging as Tuesday action marked a

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Special Bulletin: March 26th, 2018

With one of the biggest single-day point advances ever in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial average, an investor might think the market is back on track. While that may prove to be the case over the next several days, it is not there yet. One hardy day of gains is not enough to repair the significant damage done to the stock market last week. Seasoned market pros know that today’s rally may be the start of something

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Special Bulletin: March 8th, 2018

The stock market remains in a stance of “Uptrend Under Pressure”. With all this talk about March Madness an investor might have thought you were referring to the stock market. Over the past three weeks the market has moved back & forth between being under our proprietary first stage sell-signal, and then falling back into our 2nd stage sell-signal, which is where it stands today. While the market has generally been rising since the Feb 9th low, the

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Special Bulletin: February 15th, 2018

This week the stock market has staged a brilliant rebound from last weeks significant declines, and as a result our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. The market is currently still under a 2nd stage sell-signal based on our proprietary three stage sell-signal process. There are two important technical hurdles yet to clear in order to return to an all clear green light. One indicator will be confirmed over the next

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Special Bulletin: February 8th, 2018

The stock market sold off hard again today on increased trading volume and failed to get back up through key price support levels. In the process it triggered the 3rd stage of our 3 stage “sell-signal”. Due to the continued weakening of certain internal technical indicators and the growing amount of professional selling (Distribution Days), our official outlook has changed to “Market in a Correction” and our light is “red”. As of todays close, the decline from

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Special Bulletin: February 5th, 2018

Based on the action of last Friday and today, our proprietary risk management discipline has flashed a 2nd stage “sell signal” and is very close to changing to a “red” light (a 3rd stage sell-signal). Our equity strategies are holding up well relative to the market due to recent proactive moves made by us for our clients to increase the cash levels and/or employ a portion of capital into inverse (hedge) ETF’s. (See 01/18/18 &

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Special Bulletin: February 1st, 2018

his week our Current Market Outlook has changed to “Uptrend Under Pressure“. This change in outlook is due to the continued erosion of several technical indicators, along with an increasing number of Distribution Days (days of professional selling) over the past week. As noted in this column several days ago, our proprietary internal indicators were already beginning to signal a change in the markets tone. That developing weakness was highlighted by this past Tuesdays nearly 400 point decline

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Special Bulletin: January 29th, 2018

The stock market suffered technical damage today via professional selling known as “Distribution”. The number of recent Distribution Days in the market is still relatively light. However, today’s higher volume selling, coupled with an expansion in the number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows, has caused our Current Market Outlook to be on the verge of changing to “Uptrend Under Pressure”. As mentioned in our bulletin from 01/18/18 (see below), the market did end up flashing an internal-indicator driven,

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Outlook Updates