Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The Fed’s interest rate hikes remain a serious headwind for growth, yet underlying technical conditions in the stock market have begun to improve. Even with growth stocks and the major stock indexes having experienced a “bounce” recently, the general stock market still faces higher than normal risks. As you consider employing capital, bear in mind the economy is still in a difficult economic environment – and stock returns will be “data dependent.” 

Special Bulletin: Aug 3, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light. The Fed’s interest rate hikes remain a serious headwind for growth, yet underlying technical conditions in the stock market have begun to improve. Even with the current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflecting higher than normal risks, the S&P500 and

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Special Bulletin: July 28, 2022 (11am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment When Bad News is Good?  Based on the response by big money managers in the stock market yesterday to the Fed’s rate hike and to today’s economic release at 10am, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light. (S&P 500 @ 4026.27) While the Fed’s interest rate hikes remain a serious headwind for growth, underlying

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Special Bulletin: July 12, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Does Inverted Yield Curve = Recession? It has been almost 3 weeks since we wrote on June 22nd that a bounce attempt had arrived. At that time, the stock market’s internals flashed the extreme readings that history has shown are usually visible when selling prepares to take a break. Indeed, the major stock indexes have not yet closed under the lows of that

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Special Bulletin: June 22, 2022 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign remains a headwind for most stocks. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes still reflects high risk with a negative outlook for growth. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are oversold and appear ready for a bounce.

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Special Bulletin: June 15, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is a Turn Near? OK. Maybe we should ask… “is a bounce near?” Let’s be clear about something, the fundamentals of the economy are awful, and they are being reflected in the stock market as it falls deeper into its worst start to a year in decades. Having said that, countertrend “bounces” are common during bear markets (see more below). So, turn =

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Special Bulletin: June 9, 2022 (3pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Downgrade and a Flash Point As of 3pm today (actually a 2:30pm signal that was confirmed at 3pm) the stock market was succumbing to selling pressure and was falling back into a technical correction. As bad as today’s action is, tomorrow mornings release of May’s consumer price index will be a major market mover. Believe it or not, it is entirely possible

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Special Bulletin: May 26, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next (Part 2)? A Soft Landing? New Highs? Our post last week suggested that the stock market was oversold. In it we discussed whether a recession or a crash was on the horizon. (Keep in mind the horizon is still many months a way.) We stated that the next few days would be very telling and wrote… “At the same time

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Special Bulletin: May 19, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What ‘s Next? A Recession? A Crash? That is the $64,000 question of the day, isn’t it? If it’s all the same to you, I’d rather play the $100,000 Pyramid. (Evidence of a misspent youth.)  🙂 The stock market remains sick and under significant selling pressure by the pros. The next few days will be very telling. The possibility of a recession this

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Special Bulletin: May 6, 2022 (11am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The stock market’s recent rally phase has failed. The Fed’s interest rate hike campaign has picked up and will remain a headwind for most stocks for some time. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects high risk with a negative outlook for

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Special Bulletin: April 21, 2022 (3pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The stock market’s recent rally phase is failing. The Fed’s interest rate hike campaign has started and will remain a headwind for most stocks for some time. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects high risk with a negative

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Special Bulletin: April 6, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Professional Selling Expands, New Lows too The stock market is either running out of gas or pausing to recharge at this juncture. We have written in the past about what we call a “question mark moment” and we are facing one now. The “worries” of the day remain: War, Inflation, Covid, China, and Interest Rates. We call this WICCIR (It rhymes with quicker.)

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Special Bulletin: March 31, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Just what is WICCIR Anyway? As the first quarter of 2022 winds down today, the stock (and bond) market has a lot on its mind. On Wall Street, it is often stated that the “stock market climbs a wall of worry.” At certain points throughout history, in the face of challenging uncertainties, the stock market has occasionally confounded investors by rising in spite

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Special Bulletin: March 16, 2022 (3:30pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Ray of Light? The Fed has begun its advance against the enemy of inflation with a 1/4% hike today. While it could be viewed as a gentle first move, we are reminded that a journey of a 1000 miles starts with a single step. Even if a cautious one at that. In our opinion, the Fed has given inflation a “head-start” in

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Special Bulletin: March 12, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Blustery Day They say that March comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion. But what happens in between? As I write this from my home, outside the winds are howling at 18 mph with gusts of up to 30+! Earlier, snow was falling… horizontally. (I had planned to go into the office for a bit, but who wants

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Special Bulletin: February 23, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is Taiwan Next? As the stock market continues in its new found trend lower, we smell a rat. Sure looks like the “smart money” knew early on something was up. Take a look at the price of Natural Gas futures a month ago. Out of nowhere they skyrocketed and nearly set the energy complex on fire. (Pun intended) Of course, we now see

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Special Bulletin: February 15, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Major Move is Near The charts of the stock market’s major indexes are giving a visual look of a coiled spring. The recent price and volume violence has settled down, for now at least, but appears to be gearing up for a significant move- and a new wave of price and volume violence. We would love to sit here and tell you

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Special Bulletin: February 8, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Zero Investors often fall victim to their own minds (emotions) in several ways. One specific area is in the form of extrapolation: To infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information. Once a waterfall price-panic is in motion, our minds (with the help of our eyes) often assume the worst. As silly as this

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Special Bulletin: February 2, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Sell the Bounce Over the past few days, the stock market’s oversold condition did usher in the bounce we expected. This type of countertrend action is normal after a severe drop in a new downtrend. As of today’s close, (SPX @ 4,589.31), our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The “Core Four” shows 2 red

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Special Bulletin: January 31, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Bounce Watch The stock market’s oversold condition is likely to usher in a bounce in the coming days. Friday’s big price reversal (although on lower volume vs. the prior day) kicked it off heading into the last day of the month/first day of the month in-flows combination today and tomorrow. At today’s open (SPX @ 4,431.79), our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to

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Special Bulletin: January 18, 2022 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Brace Yourself Last week the stock market’s weakness grew as the bulls had little or no ammunition to ignite a snap-back rally and drive prices higher by “buying the dip.” The market’s character continues to change… for the worse. Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of the open this morning. Our “Core

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Special Bulletin: January 06, 2022

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The stock market is trying to forward discount the Fed’s new interest rate intentions and is rapidly shedding some of its recently gained Christmas “pounds” (points). The risk/reward ratio for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes still reflects higher than normal risk at these lofty price levels.

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Special Bulletin: December 22, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Another Question Mark Moment. Who Will Score First? Our Current Market Outlook has improved to “Uptrend Under Pressure” today with a yellow light. The stock market is trying to mount a Christmas/year-end rally even after the Fed’s interest rate announcement last week. Our “Core Four” has improved to 1 green (barely), 1 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) as the

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Special Bulletin: December 14, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Eve of History Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” shows 2 yellow and 2 red light (see top of page) with the VIX being the tie breaker again and causing a downgrade in the signal to red. Tomorrow’s Fed interest rate decision at 2pm and Fed Chair Powell’s

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Special Bulletin: December 7, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment An Expected Bounce Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” shows 1 green, 2 yellow and 1 red light (see top of page) causing an upgrade in the signal to yellow. The stock market’s tone has improved on Monday and today as the fear of the emerging C-19 variant Omicron has waned

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Special Bulletin: November 26, 2021 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Will Black Friday’s Fear Trade Lead to a Red (Down) Monday? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am today. Our “Core Four” stands with 2 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) with the VIX breaking the tie and causing a change in the light to red. The stock

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Special Bulletin: November 18, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buyer Beware Are stocks on your Christmas shopping list? Or those of your loved ones? It is possible as excessive enthusiasm is becoming rampant again on Wall Street. Froth is beginning to show up like the Christmas lights in our neighbors’ yards. Is a black Monday likely to follow this year’s black Friday? There are many seasonal tendencies to be aware of in

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Special Bulletin: November 2, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Excessive enthusiasm is beginning to creep into the stock market again. While a bullish tone in the stock market is always desirable, a frothy one is not.  With today’s action in the broader market, coupled with tomorrows looming Fed taper announcement, our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. As

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Special Bulletin: October 28, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Autumn 2021: Stocks Rise as Leaves Fall Stocks started autumn out on a weak note in September, acting like leaves, by falling below their key moving averages and triggering a brief correction. While the leaves continued to lose their grip and fall throughout October, stocks actually reversed and regained their grip rising to all-time highs. Two weeks ago in this blog we stated

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Special Bulletin: October 15, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Subpeak coming? Based on yesterday’s action, Oct. 14, our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The character of the stock market changed over the past few weeks. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects higher than normal risk. (Please note I am traveling this week and will have

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Special Bulletin: September 30, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment September Succumbs to Selling The selling pressure in the stock market over the last three weeks has intensified and is possibly on the verge of causing a deeper, rapid decline. Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” now stands with 3 red and 1 yellow light (see top of page) causing

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Special Bulletin: September 28, 2021 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Selling Pressure is Returning The stock market is under significant pressure this morning and has failed to hold at and push above key moving averages already. Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” now stands with no green, 3 yellow and 1 red light (see top of page) causing our light to

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Special Bulletin: September 25, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Watching for a Subpeak, or New Highs: The Question Mark Moment This is it. For investors, the moment has come. Monday’s sharp China “debt threat” induced sell-off, and the resulting 3-day lackluster-volume bounce in the key stock indexes, has set up a classic pattern and a “question mark” moment. A current near equal balance of positive and negative market technicals, and the same

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Special Bulletin: September 9, 2021 (1:30pm update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The stock markets internals have improved, although with waning, low volume demand while at all-time highs. The environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is at a crossroads. Listen to Fed Chair Powell’s comments on August 27th. Note: Closely monitor the S&P500 for a high volume

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Special Bulletin: August 25, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To Tapper or Not to Tapper, that is the Question: Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune (cheap money- continued low interest rates), or to take arms against a sea of troubles (out of control inflation). That is the question for the Fed this week. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will

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Special Bulletin: August 7, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Escape Velocity vs. Exit Strategy A very long time ago I suffered through a high school physics class. Having thought of myself as inclined mathematically, I proudly opted to enroll in the enriched, or accelerated, version of the class. I wasn’t prepared for what came next. Turns out the class was a bear and featured a teacher that seemed to enjoy seeing pimple

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Special Bulletin: July 19, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Precipice of a Precipitous Decline? Selling in stocks and other “risk-on” asset classes has accelerated since the warning in our last post and has pushed our Current Market Outlook to the brink of RED. Many technical internals in the broad market are flashing warning signs and are testing key support levels. The “Generals” (large caps) are even in retreat. Our Current

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Special Bulletin: July 7, 2021 (1:30pm Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Certain Underlying Technicals Reveal Deterioration A growing number of NYSE technical internals are beginning to show deterioration in the broader market. It also appears that the “Generals” (large caps) are leading the “privates” (small caps) into battle. Typically, that is not a good development. In response to today’s change in our “Core Four”, our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under

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Special Bulletin: June 23, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment “If the Market Doesn’t Do What It is ‘Supposed’ to Do, It Ain’t Gonna” As a result of new price highs on the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes and a reduction in the Distribution Day count due to time, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at Wednesday’s close. Our “Core Four” stands with 3

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Special Bulletin: June 16, 2021

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Fed Hints at New Plan – Market Hinting at One of Its Own? Summer “low volume” trends and investor indecision due to a “cornered Fed” have led to an uninspiring and short-lived uptrend. Last week we wrote, “We have to remain open to the possibility that this new green signal could be negated quickly by bad market action. If that develops, our signal

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Special Bulletin: June 10, 2021 (10am Update)

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Meme Mania Motivates Market Craziness has returned in the short-squeeze arena and has caused a willingness by investors to put more capital “at risk.” As a result of those inflows, and a sufficient passage of time, the level of distribution (professional selling) has dropped off in recent days which moved one of our “Core 4” indicators to green yesterday and caused our Current

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Outlook Archive