Current Market Outlook

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The stock market is trying to grapple with the Fed’s new interest rate intentions and is reflecting significant, growing weakness. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects higher than normal risk and a change in the market’s character. While

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The stock market is trying to forward discount the Fed’s new interest rate intentions and is rapidly shedding some of its recently gained Christmas “pounds” (points). The risk/reward ratio for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes still reflects higher than normal risk at these lofty price levels.

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Another Question Mark Moment. Who Will Score First? Our Current Market Outlook has improved to “Uptrend Under Pressure” today with a yellow light. The stock market is trying to mount a Christmas/year-end rally even after the Fed’s interest rate announcement last week. Our “Core Four” has improved to 1 green (barely), 1 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) as the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Eve of History Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” shows 2 yellow and 2 red light (see top of page) with the VIX being the tie breaker again and causing a downgrade in the signal to red. Tomorrow’s Fed interest rate decision at 2pm and Fed Chair Powell’s

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment An Expected Bounce Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” shows 1 green, 2 yellow and 1 red light (see top of page) causing an upgrade in the signal to yellow. The stock market’s tone has improved on Monday and today as the fear of the emerging C-19 variant Omicron has waned

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Will Black Friday’s Fear Trade Lead to a Red (Down) Monday? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am today. Our “Core Four” stands with 2 yellow and 2 red lights (see top of page) with the VIX breaking the tie and causing a change in the light to red. The stock

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buyer Beware Are stocks on your Christmas shopping list? Or those of your loved ones? It is possible as excessive enthusiasm is becoming rampant again on Wall Street. Froth is beginning to show up like the Christmas lights in our neighbors’ yards. Is a black Monday likely to follow this year’s black Friday? There are many seasonal tendencies to be aware of in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Excessive enthusiasm is beginning to creep into the stock market again. While a bullish tone in the stock market is always desirable, a frothy one is not.  With today’s action in the broader market, coupled with tomorrows looming Fed taper announcement, our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. As

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Autumn 2021: Stocks Rise as Leaves Fall Stocks started autumn out on a weak note in September, acting like leaves, by falling below their key moving averages and triggering a brief correction. While the leaves continued to lose their grip and fall throughout October, stocks actually reversed and regained their grip rising to all-time highs. Two weeks ago in this blog we stated

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Subpeak coming? Based on yesterday’s action, Oct. 14, our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The character of the stock market changed over the past few weeks. The current environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes reflects higher than normal risk. (Please note I am traveling this week and will have

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment September Succumbs to Selling The selling pressure in the stock market over the last three weeks has intensified and is possibly on the verge of causing a deeper, rapid decline. Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” now stands with 3 red and 1 yellow light (see top of page) causing

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Selling Pressure is Returning The stock market is under significant pressure this morning and has failed to hold at and push above key moving averages already. Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” now stands with no green, 3 yellow and 1 red light (see top of page) causing our light to

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Watching for a Subpeak, or New Highs: The Question Mark Moment This is it. For investors, the moment has come. Monday’s sharp China “debt threat” induced sell-off, and the resulting 3-day lackluster-volume bounce in the key stock indexes, has set up a classic pattern and a “question mark” moment. A current near equal balance of positive and negative market technicals, and the same

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The stock markets internals have improved, although with waning, low volume demand while at all-time highs. The environment for investing in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is at a crossroads. Listen to Fed Chair Powell’s comments on August 27th. Note: Closely monitor the S&P500 for a high volume

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment To Tapper or Not to Tapper, that is the Question: Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune (cheap money- continued low interest rates), or to take arms against a sea of troubles (out of control inflation). That is the question for the Fed this week. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Escape Velocity vs. Exit Strategy A very long time ago I suffered through a high school physics class. Having thought of myself as inclined mathematically, I proudly opted to enroll in the enriched, or accelerated, version of the class. I wasn’t prepared for what came next. Turns out the class was a bear and featured a teacher that seemed to enjoy seeing pimple

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Precipice of a Precipitous Decline? Selling in stocks and other “risk-on” asset classes has accelerated since the warning in our last post and has pushed our Current Market Outlook to the brink of RED. Many technical internals in the broad market are flashing warning signs and are testing key support levels. The “Generals” (large caps) are even in retreat. Our Current

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Certain Underlying Technicals Reveal Deterioration A growing number of NYSE technical internals are beginning to show deterioration in the broader market. It also appears that the “Generals” (large caps) are leading the “privates” (small caps) into battle. Typically, that is not a good development. In response to today’s change in our “Core Four”, our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment “If the Market Doesn’t Do What It is ‘Supposed’ to Do, It Ain’t Gonna” As a result of new price highs on the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes and a reduction in the Distribution Day count due to time, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light at Wednesday’s close. Our “Core Four” stands with 3

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Fed Hints at New Plan – Market Hinting at One of Its Own? Summer “low volume” trends and investor indecision due to a “cornered Fed” have led to an uninspiring and short-lived uptrend. Last week we wrote, “We have to remain open to the possibility that this new green signal could be negated quickly by bad market action. If that develops, our signal

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Meme Mania Motivates Market Craziness has returned in the short-squeeze arena and has caused a willingness by investors to put more capital “at risk.” As a result of those inflows, and a sufficient passage of time, the level of distribution (professional selling) has dropped off in recent days which moved one of our “Core 4” indicators to green yesterday and caused our Current

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment “The Market Always Takes Longer to Do what You Think It Is Going to Do” Back in the early to mid-80’s, when my mother was developing her technique of technical analysis while working as a stockbroker at EF Hutton, she often made that comment (see title above) to me as I was starting my career.  It was meant as a sober reminder that

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Look out Below! Or, Up Up We Go! Attention please! The stock market is at a critical juncture. In the days (maybe just hours) ahead, the stock market will tip its hand and make an important direction decision. The S&P500 needs to hold above its all-important 50 day mav asap. Big test tomorrow. On April 22nd we wrote, “High stock prices combined with

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is It Time to Dust Off “Sell in May…?” High stock prices combined with low levels of total trading volume is NOT a good recipe for a continuation of a stock market rally. This kind of current action should raise a few eyebrows. Additionally, on recent days when the daily trading volume actually increased versus the previous day the market has fallen more

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Is the Nasdaq Coming Out of Hibernation? Unlike the Bears of Baylor (Congrats on your first National Championship! Praise God!), the “bears” of Wall Street committed a turnover and allowed the Nasdaq to win by confirming an uptrend with a follow-through day (FT day) on March 31st. The Nasy is again approaching all-time highs. Two weeks ago we wrote, “Perhaps the Nasdaq will

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Let the “Green” Shoots Begin! / Is Another Frost Due? Spring has arrived and so has a confirmed stock market uptrend with a “green” signal. Friday’s action, on day 16 of a new rally attempt, finally notched a follow-through day (on the S&P500 at least) confirming increased institutional demand for equities. At least for now. With today’s price and volume action on the

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Moment of Decision  Technical conditions remain conflicted. The markets recent action absolutely reflects a rotation away from the Nasdaq and most things tech and a move into energy, financial and so-called “old economy” sectors. Usually, even though disruptive, action like this leads to a broadening of the bull market. While the strength of the past few days has been encouraging, it in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Well, That Happened Fast Too The stock market has continued to experience high volume selling (a.k.a. Distribution) but now with downward price violations in each of the main indexes key moving averages. The Dow is down almost 300 so far today. Indeed, the recent feeble market rally attempt did prove to only be a “fake-out.” As a result, our Current Market Outlook is

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Well, That Happened Fast The stock market is experiencing high volume selling (a.k.a. Distribution) and a downward price violation of key moving averages in the main indexes today. This type of negative action (expectation breaking) is exactly what we warned about in our post just a day ago when we wrote, “While our signal’s upgrade to green is encouraging, it is early. It

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Risks Are Still High, But So is Demand The equity market underwent a critical test of institutional support yesterday, and is responding favorably to it today. After sliding for 5.5 days, the S&P500 made an important stand at its 50 day and 10 week moving averages. It even managed to close over its 21 day mav on the same day! The technical pattern

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment What Sad Is Stories of soaring prices and all-time highs keep filling the airwaves and chatrooms. Tales of epic short squeezes and SPAC moonshots entice Robinhood and its little Johns to abandon all caution (and their day jobs!) and take on the big boys. It must be a wonderful time to get into the market! Not! This type of rampant speculation never ends

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment As Goes January, So Goes the Year Selling smacked the stock market this week. The major indexes have continued marking time by basically moving sideways since our Current Market Outlook signal was downgraded to yellow on Dec. 9th. The high of Dec 9th on the S&P500 of 3,712 and today’s close at 3,714 are almost identical. The major stock indexes are engaging in

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment I Was There, and There is Hope The stock market has continued marking time by basically moving sideways since our last post. The high of Dec 29th on the S&P500 at 3,756 and today’s intra-day low (so far) of 3,749 are nearly identical. Up to this hour at 1 pm, the S&P500 has tested and held its 21-day moving average, while the Nasdaq

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment A Prayer for the New Year The stock market has basically marked time and moved sideways for most of December, despite recent incremental closes at all-time highs. The market appears to be digesting November’s sharp gains, which came when the “Blue Wave” didn’t and may be pausing to refresh. However, the bullish sentiment is so ridiculously high that it is looking more like

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Does the Year-End Rally Need a Santa Pause? The market experienced a dose of heavy selling (a.k.a. a Distribution Day) today. That wasn’t all that surprising given the multi-day run to all-time highs in the key indexes over the past month. But today marked the fourth Distribution Day on the S&P500 in the past 25 trading sessions. Couple that with the excessively bullish

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment The “No Blue Wave” Relief Rally Continues The stock market just completed one of its best months in history, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrials. Catching many investors by surprise, the old-fashioned cyclical and value stocks soared in November. It stands to reason as many of the industries that led the rally this month were the stocks beaten down by fear at

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment This Land Is Your Land, This Land Is My Land… America. This is our country, and we must protect it and preserve the integrity of our election process.    Proverbs 10:9 – He who walks in integrity walks securely, but he who perverts his ways will be found out. * Like it or not, many abuses from election night (and the days that

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment And The Hits Just Keep On Coming…And So Do The Ballots. In all our years we have never seen a more obvious and blatant attempt to steal an election! The actions in a few “cooked” states are deplorable and appear devoid of integrity. It is unconscionable that so many one-sided, late night ballot dumping votes* could suddenly appear (among other irregularities) and must

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment On the Verge of a Serious Breakdown? Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a “red” light. Two of our Core Four indicators are red and two are yellow. This combination signals rising risks and a potentially dangerous outlook. As of this morning, the key stock market indexes are not holding their all-important 21 and 50 day

The Triumphant Core Four NYSE Internals Moving Averages Professional Selling Investor Sentiment Nervousness Runs Higher as Indexes Slide Lower Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a “yellow” light. Three of our Core Four indicators are yellow and the last is green. This combination creates a cautious outlook. The stock market major indexes are sitting right on top of their 21 and 50 day moving averages. There is also a