Special Bulletin: October 9, 2024

T-Minus 27 and Counting…

As the election nears, anticipation (anxiety for some) is building. In addition to that, Hurricane Milton is on the verge of hitting Tampa while the Hurricane Helene clean up continues.

Part of our team has been traveling on business over the past several days and observed a lot of economic activity on the highways and byways of the east coast and in the south of our great country. We were encouraged by the number of folks we met that were concerned for the victims of the recent storms. One peculiar observation, though, was how steady the economy appeared with robust demand visible all around and yet the Fed recently cut rates. And by a full half of a percent! We ask: What does the Fed see? It must be big. But…. Note: The more the economic data comes out the more it appears that inflation is not dead and it may have been politically motivated – so close to an election!

Last week we wrote (and it bears repeating), “Our nation faces many challenges right now. This is a time for courage. A time for wisdom and experience. A time to unify and work to repair our great nation and get it back on track. Each one of us should take a moment to thankfully reflect on the blessings in life given by our Creator.

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. The upgrade to yellow happened as of 2:30pm on 09/11/24, with the SPX @ 5,518.19. As long as the Nasdaq & S&P 500 continue to trade above their respective 50-day mav’s, the trend is up. Our Core Four now shows 2 green & 2 yellow with no red lights, a “tie” – this is as bullish as it gets before going green – the rub is that the VIX is holding firmly above its own 50-day mav (a warning) and that is the “tiebreaker” to yellow. Note: The negative pattern on the Nasdaq called a negative divergence, or a negative “non-confirmation” is still in play. The Transportation index looks similar.

In our last post we also stated, “If the market can shake off today’s “news” (dock strike among other things) and bolt higher on increasing volume, that would be very positive. Otherwise, there may be a different aftermath to do deal with for all of us.” Thus far the indexes have indeed shaken off the Middle East missile threat and the dock strike of last week and have moved higher. However, the volume has been less than awe-inspiring. This is still a tricky market, and much is riding on “T-minus 27 and counting.” Stayed tuned and stay on your knees!

“Everyone who comes to Me and hears My words and acts on them, I will show you whom he is like: he is like a man building a house, who dug deep and laid a foundation on the rock; and when a flood occurred, the torrent burst against that house and could not shake it, because it had been well built. But the one who has heard and has not acted accordingly, is like a man who built a house on the ground without any foundation; and the torrent burst against it and immediately it collapsed, and the ruin of that house was great.” Luke 6:47-49 NASB 1995

Game plan: Aren’t you glad that you (we) didn’t “freak out” over the terrifying news from the Middle East last week? Monitor the price and volume relationship on the major indexes and the action of leading stocks as we head into the election. Prepare an action plan for either election outcome. One is clearly better for our country and for the markets than the other is – and the markets know that. Ask Jesus for wisdom. Please also pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®