Special Bulletin: December 24, 2024

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

It’s seen as the most wonderful time of the year for a reason. In many ways it truly is, as long as worshiping the Savior is in the center of it.

But there are many that are struggling this time of year because “life happens” and it’s often painful and messy. Jesus knows our pain. He is acquainted with our sorrow. He Himself was a Man of sorrows. There is no one better to trust – to turn to – when experiencing deep pain, loneliness, or fear among other things… especially this time of the year.

The greatest gift ever given in the history of the world was the Son of God as a loving, selfless sacrifice as a payment for the sin debt of sinners. Have you received your gift? Now is the time to confess your sins and to repent from them. Merry CHRISTmas!

This past week the stock market got a bit messy as a sharp sell-off happened on Wednesday. At this point, the sell-off looks like a possible successful test of the S&P500’s 50-day mav. The fly in the ointment is the persistent rising 10-year US Treasury yield. It is difficult for stocks to climb as interest rates climb. But it won’t matter to the stock market… until it matters.

Many investors see last week’s action as a “first shot across the bow” while others say it was a necessary (and even expected) shake-out of overly optimistic investors. So far both views are potentially right but only one will prevail in the new year.

Over two weeks ago we posted, “So, while we are still technically under a green light according to our C.M.O. (Current Market Outlook), the rising tensions (both at home and abroad) coupled with the extreme enthusiasm sends winter shivers through many seasoned investors. Folks, it won’t take much for Wall Street to start a little profit taking that could spill into a capital preservation frenzy that morphs into an all-out panic. Fortunately, our CMO will be responding in real time and adjusting the outlook based on the actual math of the market dictated by the big institutional footprints of money.” (Bold emphasis added) That happened and our C.M.O. responded.

Our Current Market Outlook is currently “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. It was downgraded at 2:30pm on December 18th with the SPX @ 6,000.38. Our Core Four has 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights- a caution signal.

On the 18th we stated, “With the Fed as a major catalyst, the major indexes are suddenly coming under severe selling pressure. The key indexes need to hold above their 50-day mav’s to stay in an uptrend. Our Core Four has deteriorated and as of yesterday’s close (12/17) had shifted to a preemptive cautionary signal with 2 green and 2 red lights and a VIX rapidly approaching its 50-day mav. This is a dangerous intersection for the markets as the NYSE’s daily new 52-week lows are expanding and has closed over a key level several days in a row.The Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain well above their important 50-day mav’s and the trend is still up. Our Core Four still has 1 red with 3 green lights. The VIX has plunged well below its 50-day mav which is a big positive.”

Trying to resist the momentum and prevailing trend of the stock market is usually futile and often very costly. We made this following statement over 2 weeks ago and it still applies, “Given all this above, what then is the right thing to do now? Obviously, investors must remain engaged and vigilant. Employing disciplined risk management tactics will be a must going forward for a while.”

All of us at Triumphant wish you and yours a very meaningful time ahead with your family and friends. May you actually receive the “ultimate gift” this year if you haven’t already. Blessings to you in the name of the Lord Jesus!

“for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God,” … “For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”

“For God so loved the world, that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him shall not perish, but have eternal life. For God did not send the Son into the world to judge the world, but that the world might be saved through Him.”

“But the angel said to them, “Do not be afraid; for behold, I bring you good news of great joy which will be for all the people; for today in the city of David there has been born for you a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. This will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in cloths and lying in a manger.” And suddenly there appeared with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying,

Romans 3:23, John 3:16-17 & Luke 2:10-14 NASB 1995

Game plan: Celebrate the Creator and His amazing gifts! Rest now and prepare for potential economic battles in the new year. Monitor your employed capital with diligence and a longer-term view. Ask for wisdom from Jesus. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®