Special Bulletin: April 29, 2025

A Test of the 50-day Moving Average Draws Near

On April 9th, on our C.M.O landing page, we shared, “Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as 3pm on April 9th, with the SPX @ 5,320.15. A pause in certain tariffs by President Trump has sparked a massive rally and brought the stock market a big step closer to a confirming “Follow-Through Day” (FTD). Be careful as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to be situated well under their own 21-day and 50-day mav’s. Our Core Four still reflects a high risk condition with the VIX well above its all-important 50-day mav. This is a risky condition, but one possibly in transition for the stock market, and still dependent on tariff decisions.”

Since that upgrade, the market chopped sideways for a bit and then experienced a FT day (April 22nd) and a subsequent nice rally. In the process the key indexes have moved up and over their 21-day mavs and the number of daily new 52-week lows on the NYSE has crashed. Also, the VIX has finally moved back under its own 50-day mav (big plus). That’s the good news. The bad news is that the major indexes are now approaching their 50-day mavs from underneath which is often used as an area where the “bears” short into a rally to try to push the market back down.

Further bad news is that the major indexes are still well under their respective 200-day mavs. The saying goes, “nothing good happens under the 200-day.” This implies that time is needed for the stock market to heal after a sharp correction (the 200-day mav has to play “catch down” to the major averages), and in the very least, a strong uptrend can’t develop (and be sustained) while the major indexes are trading below their 200-day mavs… like at the present.

Today our Current Market Outlook is still “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as it has been since April 9th when the SPX was at 5,320.15. While the new rally has been confirmed with a “Follow-Through Day” (FTD), remember that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still under their 50-day mav’s. Our Core Four remains yellow with 2 yellow and 2 green lights. The VIX is on the verge of a bullish tie-breaker event. FYI: While this remains a risky area for the stock market, yet as difficult as this may be to hear, the Core Four signal is near to going green.

What we posted over a month ago continues to fit, “This is still a VERY critical juncture for the stock market. A bounce (rally) is trying to develop, but real risks loom in the weeks ahead. A retest (or worse) of the recent lows is very likely between now and May. But who knows!? Maybe our trading partners will capitulate and we will win the tariff war… and the bulls will take back control… and up they’ll go! But if they don’t, prepare your shelter (exit strategy) for more than a spring shower. A little “rain” is fine, but a severe storm would bring damage.”

Either the storm has passed, or the eye of the storm is passing over right now. Immediate tariff announcements will dictate the “forecast.”

“Honor your father and your mother, that your days may be prolonged in the land which the Lord your God gives you.”

“Do nothing from selfishness or empty conceit, but with humility of mind regard one another as more important than yourselves;…”

Exodus 20:12 & Philippians 2:3 NASB 1995

Game plan: Monitor your watch list and study how the major indexes act at the test of their 50-day mavs. Pray for discernment from the Lord Jesus. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®