Special Bulletin: June 24, 2024

Another Big PCE Number is Coming on Friday

If a week without a big economic release or a Fed meeting would seem rather unusual now, this week won’t disappoint. Brace yourself for “another big PCE number” on Friday (insert YAWN).

Be careful! The moment most participants get bored with key economic releases is the moment they matter the most. Complacency should be a 4-lettered word for investors. Maybe it already is if one becomes “LAZY.” It is easy to take your eyes off the stock market during the summer. But DON’T! Especially in a Presidential election year.

Investor sentiment levels continue to flash a warning sign while nearing historically extreme levels. This signal is often early. According to Investor’s Business Daily, the current Bulls vs. Bears weekly survey of newsletter writers, which is published by Investors Intelligence, is now BULLS: 61.20 % vs. BEARS: 17.90 % (the remainder are neutral).

Beware when the bulls are running rampant in the streets! While all eyes will be on Pamplona’s street in a fortnight, don’t forget to keep your eyes on the bulls of Wall Street.

Photo courtesy of Pixabay

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (the last signal change was at 10:30am on 05/29/24 with the SPX @ 5,277.66). Our Core Four sports 2 green and 2 red lights. The VIX has been creeping up towards its 50-day mav – keep an eye on it!

It may seem odd to you to have a yellow signal with the stock market at all-time highs. We understand that feeling. But that is precisely why we study the math of the market and score it via our TPM Core Four. Our system tracks the footprints of money and shines a light on the critical internals that often confirm when a new trend has begun. Right now, the internals are suggesting that the risks and rewards are about equal for the major indexes – a yellow signal. In other words, our work is saying that the odds of higher prices from here are about 50/50, instead of the historical advantage of roughly 75/25% for the bulls. Buyer beware!

“I shall offer to You burnt offerings of fat beasts, With the smoke of rams; I shall make an offering of bulls with male goats. Selah.”

“For it is impossible for the blood of bulls and goats to take away sins.”

“The next day he saw Jesus coming to him and said, “Behold, the Lamb of God who takes away the sin of the world!”  Psalm 66:15. Hebrews 10:4, John 1:29 NASB 1995

Game plan: Don’t become complacent! Stay engaged. Many investors are overly optimistic. Review your levels of risk and employ/raise stops. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®