Special Bulletin: June 14, 2024

At New Highs: Caution is Warranted / Happy Father’s Day, Dad?

Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (the last signal change was at 10:30am on 05/29/24 with the SPX @ 5,277.66). Our Core Four improved slightly this week to 2 green and 2 red lights. The VIX remains well under its 50-day mav – a short-term positive

While no sharp price reversal (that drives the main indexes to their 50-day mav’s on big volume) has happened yet, the major indexes are technically extended and vulnerable to profit taking. A little more deterioration in the health of the underlying technicals transpired this week. The NYSE daily new 52-week lows is sending a cautionary warning, as well as the rather pathetic readings on the advance/decline lines on the S&P500 and in particular, the Nasdaq. These are concerning early signs that often take a long time to make themselves felt.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spiced things up a bit this week when he shared the reduced Fed governor’s expectation of only one rate cut this year. But the market shrugged it off. Well, sort of. The main indexes did not make any meaningful headway from Wednesday through today (Friday) and fortunately did not collapse in a Wall Street induced tantrum.

There is measurable stealth selling taking place on the NYSE. And not so stealth selling continuing on the Nasdaq. It has been said that on Wall Street, “it doesn’t matter until it matters.” The popular indexes continue to be buoyed up by a handful of major MEGA-caps. “The music will continue until it stops.” In the meantime, the broader indices are beginning to retreat. As a result, we have reduced our exposure in certain areas as a defensive measure.

“For you have not received a spirit of slavery leading to fear again, but you have received a spirit of adoption as sons by which we cry out, “Abba! Father!”” Romans 8:15 NASB 1995

Game plan: The stock market is still in the middle of a big test. Most investors are still on one side of the stock market boat – very optimistic. Review your levels of risk and update your exit strategy. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Ps. Happy Father’s Day to my dad, wherever you may be and if you are still alive. And “thank you, God” for adopting me as your son.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®