Investing
Current Market Outlook
BLOG POST: Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is “yellow.“
James Jon Benet
December 18, 2024
In our last post we posed the question: Where do we go from here? The stock market, which is in the middle of a new rally attempt, is answering the question and it appears to be “UP, at least temporarily.”
Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the close yesterday – 08/14/24 – with the SPX @ 5,455.21. Our Core Four has 3 yellow and 1 red light now, with a VIX that is testing its 50-day mav and is below its 21-day mav.
As of the close a day earlier, the stock market scored a Follow Through Day (FTD) and confirmed the new rally attempt on Tuesday (day 6 of the rally attempt). This important technical event means that the chances for a money-making rally, if not even a new bull market leg up, have improved. Keep in mind, not every FTD works.
It is important for investors/traders to watch for signs of professional selling, known as Distribution Days. Historically, when distribution happens within the first 3 days after a FTD, the rally attempt often dies.
Today we will get the retail sales and jobless claims news. How the market reacts to the news will be more telling than the numbers themselves.
The major indexes are right at important levels of overhead supply (resistance), so a powerful move up and a close over those areas would be very bullish. Conversely, if the market is not higher within 2 to 3 days, then the chances of a retest of last week’s lows would increase.
“Enter through the narrow gate; for the gate is wide and the way is broad that leads to destruction, and there are many who enter through it.” Matthew 7:13 NASB 1995
Game plan: Begin deploying a portion of your available capital into the best ideas from your watchlist. Watch closely to see if the key indexes get up and stay over their 50-day mav’s. Ask the Lord Jesus for wisdom. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2024 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
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