Special Bulletin: July 22, 2024

Say it isn’t so, Joe

We are grieved for the American people. Our nation deserves better than this. The leaders on the DNP (as well as their minions in the press corps) have done a grave disservice to not only their party but to the American people at large. Our election (selection) process shouldn’t be run as a high-drama game or an overly strategized agenda for absolute power. But it has degenerated into that.

The apparent hiding of our President’s real condition appears to have been going on for a long time. Shame on those who have subjected the President to this sort of abuse. In short, it seems to resemble a form of elder abuse. But finally, our President has decided to “stand down.” That had to be a tough announcement for him to make. He showed courage. Be on guard now if it is spun by his party and media elites as a “new way forward.” Don’t fall for it. It’s likely to be business as usual and that’s proven to not work for most Americans.

Leading up to President Biden’s announcement was a rather inspiring four nights in Milwaukee for the RNC which came right after the attempt on President Trump’s life. The display of strong unity, clear direction, compassion for our country and genuine patriotism during the RNC was by most un-biased accounts seen as spectacular. Is it possible that that reality had some influence on President Biden’s own “home team” detractors and their pressure?

So, now it’s early afternoon (1:30p ET) on the Monday after the President’s announcement. What would you have expected as a reaction in the stock market in the wake of his decision? It appears that investors are reacting calmly to it as the major indexes are up around 1% or more at this hour. It has been our stated opinion that Wall Street has been anticipating a “return of Trump” for many months now and today’s action seems to validate that viewpoint.

Almost lost in all this political theater is the unimaginable technological glitch caused by a CrowdStrike Holdings software update on Friday. It was a mess! It created severe disruptions in many different industries all over the world. And yet this morning it seems to have slipped into a distant memory for many. How fickle (and short memoried) we social media consumers have become! God, please help us.

On to the stock market. Last Monday we wrote, “If last week’s rotation attempt starts to sputter and reverse, it will be visible to the trained market participant’s eye. Watch for leading stocks to advance sharply and then do a total about face and begin to crumble in price. Also keep a keen eye on the net NYSE advance/decline numbers each day. A positive net relationship would confirm a broader rally is still underway. Negative daily readings would suggest the opposite.” Bingo! That is exactly what happened! Last week’s “rotation” turned into a “retreat.”

The next few days will be extremely telling and important for gauging the real interest in stocks by the institutional investors, and thereby the true health of the stock market. Was this the first shot across the bow? At this point we have not seen a “vertical violation” yet, which is good news for the bulls. But a drop to and a test of the major indexes 50-day mav’s could be in store in July/August. Yet, a high volume move back up to all-time highs is still possible and would negate the weakness and be a sign of continued demand (strength) for equities. Make the stock market prove itself.

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light based on our Core Four from Friday’s close which showed 1 green, 2 yellow and 1 red light. The VIX has had 5 successive closes over its 50-day mav and is still well above it (negative). There is historical evidence that suggests in certain years stock markets can top in August and then experience sharp declines into Sept/Oct. This can only happen if the major indexes undercut their 21 and 50-day mav’s in the weeks ahead. Otherwise, the trend remains your friend.

Finally, we wish to honor the victim of the shooting at former President Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania rally, Mr. Corey Comperatore. He was a loving father and husband who protected his family from gunfire. Mr. Comperatore, 50, was killed while shielding his wife and daughters. Please click HERE for more information. 

“Greater love has no one than this, that one lay down his life for his friends.” John 15:13 NASB 1995

“As for you, you meant evil against me, but God meant it for good in order to bring about this present result, to preserve many people alive.”  Genesis 50:20 NASB 1995

Game plan: Let the stock market prove itself. Our outlook is still one of caution. The Q2 earnings season tsunami is about to hit our shores. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®