Special Bulletin: March 24, 2025

Yellow Alert: A Bounce (Rally Attempt) is Under Way

Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of the open at 9:30am ET today, March 24th, with the SPX @ 5,726.86, after powering ahead on weekend tariff hopes. The major indexes are attempting a new rally but have yet to officially confirm with a “Follow-Through Day” (FTD). Be careful as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still situated well under their own 50-day mav’s. Our Core Four has moved to yellow (caution) with 2 red, 1 yellow and 1 green light with the VIX finally moving under its all-important 50-day mav (positive). This is an improving condition for the stock market but yet vulnerable to next weeks tariff decisions. Beware of immediate Distribution Days. 

A month ago we wrote, “The stock market is rightfully-so confused and at a crossroads. Little or no price progress has been made in the popular indexes since around December 6th – that’s 2.5 months! This sideways action won’t last indefinitely. A breakout or a breakdown is inevitable. Leading stocks have been flashing some bullish bias, but landmines among them have been occurring as well. There is not much of an “edge” for most growth investors at present.”

“Under the surface, a reliable and rare technical event regarding daily new lows on the NYSE triggered an early sell signal 2 days ago. The NYSE P/C ratio is a bit low, too, suggesting in the very least that a minor pullback is due.” 

That pullback (or a worse event) is already developing. FYI: The “sell signal” mentioned above was triggered on 02/13.” (New emphasis added.) Thank you, Lord, for that wisdom.

This is still a VERY critical juncture for the stock market. A bounce (rally) is trying to develop, but real risks loom in the weeks ahead. A retest (or worse) of the recent lows is very likely between now and May. But who knows!? Maybe our trading partners will capitulate and we will win the tariff war… and the bulls will take back control… and up they’ll go!

But if they don’t, prepare your shelter (exit strategy) for more than a spring shower. A little “rain” is fine, but a severe storm would bring damage.

“Ask rain from the Lord at the time of the spring rain— The Lord who makes the storm clouds; and He will give them showers of rain, vegetation in the field to each man.”

Zechariah 10:1 NASB 1995

Game plan: Continue bracing for the economic battles the new Administration is undertaking. Begin rebuilding your watch list and keep protecting your capital as there will be a more fruitful time in the future. Pray for discernment from the Lord Jesus. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®