Special Bulletin: May 4, 2024

May the Fourth be with You

We don’t believe in luck. It is obvious to us that God gives favor, or blessings, and that Providence is a real factor at work in the world. So, while Star Wars was a lot of fun, the real “Force” has created and is sustaining the entire universe. May that force, Jesus, be with you.

It is not by luck that the major indexes have bounced right back to their respective 50-day mav’s either. That’s exactly the way indecisive moments in stock market history work. Our point is that if the market was in real trouble over the past 2 weeks the indexes would have sliced sharply lower on massive volume already. And if they were super healthy, the key indexes would have left their 50-day mav’s in the dust already and launched (or maybe wouldn’t have undercut them in the first place). This is how an undecided market works, and as of Friday’s close the direction of the next major move is still unclear, at least by our time-tested, technically based, risk management discipline – the TPM “Core Four.”

The stock market remains amid a new rally attempt – Day 10, to be exact. Again, the next 4 to 5 days will be crucial for the bulls to assert their case and push the main indexes back up and over their respective 50-day mav’s. Otherwise, the bears will become emboldened and selling may pick up. Unfortunately for the bulls, this recent bounce and nascent rally attempt has come on disappointing volume (low) on up days and concerning volume (higher) on down days. It’s hard to make a strong, aggressive case for deploying more capital in the face of that sort of volume relationship.

Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 12pm on Friday, May 3rd (SPX 5,121.75) as two of the Core Four indicators (and then later in the day, a third) moved to yellow while the VIX also collapsed below its 50-day mav. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 3 yellow and 1 red light. The VIX has now closed below its 50-day mav on back-to-back days.

Bulls should be wary of this first bounce attempt but be hopeful that it confirms meaningfully next week.

As for the bears (short sports), the current chart set-up is an attractive one with limited controllable risk to the upside yet with big downside potential. Our Core Four will likely be changed to a red, or even a green, signal in the very near future. Stay closely tuned now!

“Have I not commanded you? Be strong and courageous! Do not tremble or be dismayed, for the Lord your God is with you wherever you go.”

“Then your maidservant said, ‘Please let the word of my lord the king be comforting, for as the angel of God, so is my lord the king to discern good and evil. And may the Lord your God be with you.’”

Joshua 1:9 and 2 Samuel 14:17 NASB 1995

Game plan: Expect, demand even, that the main indexes make a strong move up and over their 50-day mav’s in higher volume to confirm a new uptrend. Otherwise, don’t be lazy and expect luck to bail you out – create an exit strategy! Pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®