Neither a late February winter chill, nor a chilling testimony by Amb. Robert Lighthizer could cause bulls to hibernate today. The market continues to leave the “technically” climactic Christmas eve low in the rear view mirror and use the follow-through day of January 4th as a launching pad. The strength and speed of this up-move has been almost textbook when comparing it to other “blast-off” moves after bear markets of the past.
While the rally of 2019 has caught many investors (and naysayers) by surprise, it did not catch our disciplined, internal indicators formula by surprise. The “math of the market” (discerned daily by our proprietary internal indicator system) gave a signal on January 4th that conditions had improved for getting back into the market, and then gave an all-clear “green” light signal on January 17th. The “footprints of money” work we do revealed that the institutions were stampeding back in. Praise God for that wisdom!
While our Current Market Outlook light remains green, the market is likely due for a rest or even a pullback during March. At this point no serious negative technical issues have developed yet, other than a few days of distribution (aka: professional selling) on the S&P 500.
We have, however, noticed a subtle change in the tone of the stock market over the past few days. In response, we have raised a little bit of cash in a few of our strategies by taking some profits and by selling off losers/laggards.
The possibility still exists for a quick “shakeout” (a fast & sharp down move, most likely on scary news) that would create a higher low on the charts of the major indexes and possibly set the table for further gains this year.
As always, we will monitor the internals of the market every day for our clients, and compare the markets technical readings to its baseline in order to discern its true health & direction.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2019 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
Where Are Woodward and Bernstein When We Need Them? This article was written by Newt