Special Bulletin: June 18, 2019

How tweet it is! (Please pardon our humor, but with todays market action we couldn’t resist.) The Presidents early morning positive tweet about upcoming trade talks with China sparked a buying frenzy and caused the major stock market indexes to bolt ahead on strong volume. In the process, todays move confirmed the June 7th follow-through day and caused an upgrade in Our Current Market Outlook to “Market in an Uptrend” with a “green” light.

For now, Mr. Market is saying “do as I do, not as the news media says”. The markets’ internals continue to improve and the rally is expanding. No Distribution Days were seen in the 3 days immediately following the FT day and the SP500 held firmly above its 50 day line for several days. These were signs of a market cued for a launch. All this market needed was a spark and today it received it in the form of a Presidential tweet. “Hail to the Chief!”

While this is good news, investors still need to pay close attention to tomorrows Fed announcement (2pm EDT) and how the markets react to the release. A hardline Fed could derail the budding rally in US stocks. But if tomorrow goes well, then all eyes will shift to next weeks G-20 meeting in Tokyo and developments surrounding the trade negotiations with China. The trend is up, the light is green, but we are not out of the woods just yet.

The “higher-low” in the chart patterns of the main indexes (identified & posted earlier this month) has worked. From our rich market experience we believe the only way the market can go sharply lower is by piercing the (06/03) price lows. In other words, we feel the June 3rd lows of the major stock indexes will prove to be a significant floor of price support that will only be broken by seriously negative news. As shared previously, our research of the history of the higher-low pattern shows the markets trend should be sideways to up going forward while being fueled by any future positive catalysts.

Please note our study of the “math of the market” is based on several time-tested technical internals and our system tracks the “footprints of money”. While we don’t make predictions, we are aware of market tendencies and we do interpret the markets daily numbers to be aligned with its prevailing (or changing) trend. The mathematical internal indicators of our proprietary 3-stage sell-signal discipline are objective and factor out the noise. In the next two weeks the market will show if the “higher-low” sequence is for real or if major negative news will smash investors hopes and drive prices through the floor. 

Have a Triumphant day! ®