Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to be a serious headwind for growth and tomorrow’s Fed announcement will be a market mover. The general stock market faces higher than normal risks. The next week will be VERY telling about institutional demand as we head into the end of this quarter and approach the November Mid-term election. Remember that the economy is still facing a difficult environment and stock returns will be “data dependent.”
A countertrend bounce (common during bear markets) appears to have arrived.
The internal technical action of the stock market last week accompanied with yesterday’s rise has barely improved our Current Market Outlook to a yellow condition. The odds slightly favor a move to the upside heading into the end of Q2 and the July 4th holiday.
In last week’s post we wrote, “This week we are suggesting that investors need to be watching for a surprise bounce during the rest of June.” We based that probability on the readings of several internal indicators, some of which we discussed in that same article – chief among them the action of the NYSE Trin and the Put/Call ratio. The indicators “spoke.”
We seriously recognize that this is an early signal and it may fail immediately. But the math of the market is telling us what it is experiencing, so, we listen and stick with our discipline and respond by upgrading the signal to yellow. If it proves to be a false signal, we will know soon and will react by downgrading back to red. In the meantime, we are going to be patient and go slow.
Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. (S&P 500 at 10am @ 3,750.70) The “Core Four” (see top of page) shows 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights. Last week we stated, “Keep in mind though, the longer-term major trend is still very much down. It is very possible that a third nasty wave of selling could hit the market by the fall of this year. We will remain flexible and open-minded to all possibilities as the year progresses.” That still applies.
Game plan: Seek the Lord for His wisdom and guidance. Freshen up your watch lists. Push yourself to be optimistic but remain on guard.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice.
©2022 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.