(11am update) Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is still “yellow“. The stock markets uptrend is hanging on by a technical thread. With three successive closes under the 50 day moving average by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, the market must make an immediate strong move up to keep from succumbing to the growing selling pressure and being downgraded to a “red” light. On a more positive note, the market is on day 7 of a new attempted rally, according to Investors Business Daily, and could signal a follow-through day and a return to a “green” light yet this week on any significant good news.
The markets underlying technical condition has weakened further since our last post, but has not yet broken down and caused a change in our official Current Market Outlook. It is very close to it, however. A disturbing pattern of up days on lower volume and down days on higher volume has emerged. It bears repeating, during a yellow signal it is wise for investors to play defense by raising cash through taking profits and cutting losers.
On May 7th we wrote… “a correction of 3-5 %, even up to 10%, is not out of the question and would probably act as a refresher for the current rally.” Since that day, the S&P500 fell (-2.9%) and the Nasdaq (-4.2%) at their May 13th lows. We have continued to raise cash levels in our strategies over the past 2 weeks and are now waiting for the market to dictate if more is needed. The internal indicators of our proprietary mathematical sell discipline (risk management process) are suggesting that the markets are at a major juncture and will decide its next direction very soon. Buckle up!
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2019 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.