The Triumphant Core Four

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Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The Fed’s interest rate hikes continue to be a serious headwind for growth and tomorrow’s Fed announcement will be a market mover. The general stock market faces higher than normal risks. The next week will be VERY telling about institutional demand as we head into the end of this quarter and approach the November Mid-term election. Remember that the economy is still facing a difficult environment and stock returns will be “data dependent.” 

Special Bulletin: May 6, 2022 (11am Update)

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…What do May Flowers Bring?

As a young boy, we used to ask the children’s joke, “If April showers bring May flowers, what do Mayflowers bring?” Answer: Pilgrims. While that answer is a funny and historical play on words from our childhood, maybe a more appropriate answer today would be… allergies.

Along those lines, the stock market is sick and is having its own bout with allergies. Apparently, higher rates equate to hay fever. This time around though, Dr. Fed Reserve is withholding the Allegra. 

This morning the S&P 500 is attempting to hold at a minor “last hope” support level 0f 4062. Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The “Core Four” (see top of page) now shows 1 green, no yellow and 3 red lights. Note: That is a slight improvement as the level of bearishness is entering a level that suggests the fear in nearing a climax move.

If the stock market can shake off this morning’s early price dive and close higher than yesterday with a big uptick in volume, that could set the stage for an oversold bounce in the days ahead. If it can’t rally later today and instead closes lower on high volume, then expect the stock markets sickness to worsen into bronchitis on Monday and head lower.

We are grateful to our Lord Jesus for wisdom that He has given us through this difficult period as 3 of our 4 strategies are positive for the year. Our cash position remains significant.

Please note we have recently discovered that we are having technical issues with our “Outlook Updates” archive dropdown feature to the right of this post. Until further notice, please use the prior date links at the bottom left of each post to access certain earlier posts.

Game plan: Be prayerful and hopeful. Wait for this period of contraction to play out in the next phase. Patiently wait for a new confirmed uptrend signal (the elephants – smart $ – stampeding back in) before committing large amounts of your capital back into stocks.

Have a Triumphant day! ® 

The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice.
©2022 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.

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