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The Triumphant Core Four

NYSE Internals
Moving Averages
Professional Selling
Investor Sentiment

Special Bulletin: September 30, 2021


September Succumbs to Selling

The selling pressure in the stock market over the last three weeks has intensified and is possibly on the verge of causing a deeper, rapid decline.

Our Current Market Outlook is being downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. Our “Core Four” now stands with 3 red and 1 yellow light (see top of page) causing our light to change to red.

A possible vote in the “House” later tonight on the infrastructure bill may well hold the key to the stock markets next direction in the short term.

In our September 25th post we wrote, ” There is a third possible scenario: the market immediately gets weak and fails to hold critical support at the 21 & 50-day moving averages and makes a dash back to Monday’s lows. In that sort of technical set-up, where the market is fighting from a weakening position underneath the key mav’s, a more significant pattern often develops called a “Nathan short”.” That negative pattern is beginning to develop.

We remain defensively positioned in our strategies. 

Finally, with tomorrow starting a new month (first of the month $$ inflows), coupled with a possible “win for Nancy” tonight, could create an environment for an oversold rally (bounce). However, without the vote, the market is set to probe lower.

What to do now? Don’t take your seat belt off yet. By now you should have raised some cash by harvesting gains and keeping losses small in losing positions. Since the cream rises to the top, study for sectors exhibiting emerging strength/leadership throughout October. Continue monitoring the US 10-year note rate as a “taper tantrum” tell.

Have a Triumphant day! ® 

The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2021 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.

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