As posted on our C.M.O landing page yesterday, “our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 11:00am on 08/01/24 with the SPX @ 5,487.80). Our Core Four has 1 green and 3 red lights, with a VIX that is surging above its own 50-day mav.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes have failed to hold yesterday’s gains and have reversed and fallen under key mav’s. This looks like a clear case of “opposite of the Fed day” to us.
Additionally, certain technical indictors (the math of the market) have been developing weakness under the surface. Prepare for a violent battle between the bulls and the bears on big volume. Today is the first day of the month (Aug 1st) and the “inflows” don’t seem to matter – that’s negative. This morning’s high may prove technically to be a “sub-peak.” Rates have been collapsing indicating a fear of a quicker economic slowdown.”
Three days ago we wrote, “We are amid a technically odd market. Strange crosscurrents are taking place. There’s a definite rotation away from big tech happening while small/mid-caps and financials among others have shot into orbit. Depending on what the Fed does/says tomorrow that trade could accelerate or have an ugly about-face.” The “about face” is now happening.
We also shared, “The major indexes have undercut those key mav’s and are holding on to the mav test by a tread. The next 3 days will be crucial.“ For market participants, “crucial” is now.
“He makes wars to cease to the end of the earth;
He breaks the bow and cuts the spear in two;
He burns the chariots with fire.
Cease striving and know that I am God;
I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth.”
The Lord of hosts is with us;
The God of Jacob is our stronghold. Selah.” Psalm 46:9-11 NASB 1995
Game plan: The Fed’s “dynamite” is starting to explode. Our cautious outlook turned bearish yesterday. Raise cash where appropriate and remain calm. Pray for wisdom. Pray for your peace and for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2024 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
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