The expected bounce we wrote about last week is here. Whether it holds or not and leads to a resumption of an uptrend will largely be determined yet this week. Nvidia’s earnings release comes after the close today and then there is Powell… and his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
With today’s price action, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light at today’s close (SPX 4,436.01). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 yellow and 2 red lights with a rapidly declining VIX. One of our key trigger points for our CMO signal was passed bullishly at 10:40am ET this morning. We opted to wait for a show of strength into the close before upgrading the signal officially.
Last week we posted, “But before you jettison all of your holdings, be fully aware that the stock market is oversold at this juncture and could experience a sharp “snap-back” rally at any moment. It is possible that our Current Market Outlook signal could even be upgraded back to yellow in the next few days if a positive catalyst emerged that caused a big price rebound on a significant increase in volume. A possible bounce target on the SPX could be ~4,500 – 4,530.” So far, that is playing out right on cue.
Keep in mind that a short-term bounce will be suspect until the main indexes lift over their respective 50-day mav’s and hold there for a few days. If Friday does not go well (Powell plays hard-ball), then the market would likely sink quickly setting up a negative pattern we call a “Nathan short.” The next few days will be VERY telling. Ask the Lord Jesus for wisdom. Trust Him to provide it.
“The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom,
And the knowledge of the Holy One is understanding.” Proverbs 9:10 NASB 1995
Game plan: Measure the internals of this oversold bounce. Look for strong leadership to emerge and go with it. A sustained big price move in the major indexes on massive volume would be a bullish development. The 10-year US Treasury note’s yield remains a big deal.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2023 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
Where Are Woodward and Bernstein When We Need Them? This article was written by Newt