You may be wondering why write a post about baseball during the week of the Superbowl. For most fans, the season is all but over. All that remains is who gets the “bling.” I grant you; this year’s game should be a great one between 2 dominant and talented teams, but football is a winter sport and we are ready for spring! The stock market does that also. It’s always looking ahead.
OK, maybe that was over the top. But before I alienate too many of our football-fan readers, let me say that this year’s showdown, between the 10th draft pick of 2017 and the dead last (#262) draft pick of 2022, should be a barnburner (forgive me, but I grew up in the dirt of Illinois). In case you’re wondering, since my uncle & cousins are from KC and my wife’s uncle lives near the Bay, I’m neutral. Actually, I’m a Joe Burrow fan (it’s a long story) but this Brock Purdy is quite a story, and truthfully, who doesn’t like Mahomes?
The truth is, though, winter is long (and cold in VA) and I’m ready for spring! So, back to baseball.
A new year in the stock market and a new season in baseball have many similarities. With pitchers and catchers reporting next week, their beginnings are close. With the World Series now sliding into November, they finish near each other too. But there’s more to it than just the calendar. Baseball and the stock market are all about numbers. Stats! Stats! Stats! They both have results almost every day and have become international in their reach and appeal. (But no-one does it better than the US!)
Hope springs eternal for every true baseball fan this time of year. The same can be said of investors. Each one “rooting on” their favorite team/stock. There are the inevitable winning and losing streaks throughout the long season/year. In some years, certain average (or worse) teams have gotten red hot in September and moved on into the post season (i.e. Braves- 1991, Rockies- 2007, Cardinals- 2021). Stocks can be like that, too. In fact, just look at last year- 2023. As of late October, many investments were flat to down for the year, but then went on a meaningful run through December and salvaged/boosted the year.
With this being a Presidential election year, that event and the MLB World Series will be almost at the exact same time. Having said that, what else can we discern?
While we don’t know who the “victors” will be in either, we can do our own important research into the rosters and recent trades/technicals and fundamentals to make wiser choices. Who will be this year’s surprise team/sector? (Like the D-Backs/housing stocks of ’23) Which team/stocks will dominate and finish strong? (2023- Texas Rangers/Magnificent 7) We all tend to hang on to our “pets,” our fav’s, even when they are underperforming. Will small and mid-caps finally get up and run? Or will the “Mag-7” do most of the heavy lifting again? Fans and investors alike would do well to use their brains over their hearts and adjust as conditions warrant.
While the preceding is true in baseball and investing, it applies to politics, too. It is better to follow true proven leaders that have historic momentum. Each of us should bear that in mind as we consider the issues/experience on the ballot this year. “He who has ears to hear, let him hear.”
Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX 4,995.06). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) had a slight improvement this week and now sports 2 green, 1 yellow and 1 red light with a VIX that is under its 50-day mav. FYI: The advance/decline lines are still unimpressive. But the number of daily new 52-week lows on the NYSE remains tame.
Finally, remember the trend remains up if the major indexes are trading above their 21-day mav’s. But watch out for a blitz by the “bank bears” that may try to sack the uptrend.
“…whom He poured out upon us richly through Jesus Christ our Savior, so that being justified by His grace we would be made heirs according to the hope of eternal life. This is a trustworthy statement; and concerning these things I want you to speak confidently, so that those who have believed God will be careful to engage in good deeds. These things are good and profitable for men.“ Titus 3:6-8 NASB 1995
Game plan: We believe the stock market likes something it sees in the future (Opening day? LOL). The trendlines are properly stacked and the major indexes remain over their 21-day mav’s. However, investors should be on watch for a “news” induced bank panic. Please pray for Israel and peace for Jerusalem.
Ps. A shout out to my fellow baseball fans: Rockies, Nora, Astros- Bryan & Solomon, Cubs- Natalie, Karen, Justin, Jensen & Hiram, Tigers- Mike, Orioles- Charlie and Brady, Pirates- Greg, White Sox- Dr. Bob, Braves- Nathan, Ray, Davis, Ronnie, Carrie and others, Rangers- Mark & Reid, Yankees- Pete, Billy & Anita, Reds- Bill, Matt & Michael, Indians (ok, Guardians)- Greg, Angels- Matt, Twins- Geoff, Royals- Mark, Giants- Bob, Phillies- Steve, Red Sox- Mark, and my beloved Cardinals- Danny, Amanda, Henry, Caden, Scott, Randy, Sean and so many more! I’m sorry if I forgot anyone. Play ball!
Pps. The original post was updated on the next morning, Feb 8, 2024.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2024 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
Where Are Woodward and Bernstein When We Need Them? This article was written by Newt