Special Bulletin: March 28, 2023

Is a Turn Near?

As of the close, March 28th, with the SPX at 3,971.27, our signal was upgraded to a yellow light. The subtle (under the surface) improvements in the market’s technical indicators have moved our C.M.O. to an improved condition.

Our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) still shows 2 yellow and 2 red lights but now with a VIX that is under its 50-day mav. Sort of a “Tie goes to the runner” situation, as they say in the MLB. (Go Cards!)

THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL JUNCTURE. The Fed’s tough talk about inflation and future rate hikes is facing a severe challenge currently. The pending attempt by the S&P 500 to get up and over its 50-day moving average (and stay there!) is at a key moment.

This brand-new slightly upward bias that is being detected by our daily study of the “math of the market” may be reflecting something as simple as a “window dressing” push into the end of the quarter. If so, it could easily fail next week and roll over again. On the other hand, there may be something more at play. “When you least expect it, expect it” was a famous saying years ago that seems to apply today regarding a possible “turn” in the market. Perhaps the inflation figures will recede more quickly and the Fed may stand pat for a bit, and maybe even change their mind (and tone) concerning possible rate cuts later this year.

Big Wall Street elephants may be sniffing something out. Stay tuned.

“To know wisdom and instruction, to discern the sayings of understanding,
To receive instruction in wise behavior, righteousness, justice and equity;
To give prudence to the naïve, to the youth knowledge and discretion,
A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel,
To understand a proverb and a figure, the words of the wise and their riddles.

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge; fools despise wisdom and instruction.”

Proverbs 1:2-7 NASB 1995

Game plan: Prepare for a surprise rally. A “follow through” day may be close at hand. Closely monitor the S&P 500’s 50-day and 200-day mav’s (still sandwiched between them) as a risk-on or risk-off exit strategy. The 10-year US Treasury note yield remains a major tell.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®