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The Triumphant Core Four

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Special Bulletin: March 8, 2024


 The Fate of the Union

Enjoy/ĕn-joi′/ To receive pleasure or satisfaction from. * 

I do not enjoy political theater.

Union /yoo͞n′yən/ The act of uniting or the state of being united. *

We are, after all, called the United States.

A second definition of union sounds timelier and preferable: A combination so formed, especially an alliance or confederation of people, parties, or political entities for mutual interest or benefit. *

I would enjoy “a combination so formed … for the mutual interest or benefit.” Did you know that Abraham Lincoln (a Republican) chose Andrew Johnson (a Democrat) as his VP in 1864 and even temporarily renamed his party the “National Unity Party?” Talk about putting aside political differences and seeking reconciliation of a divided nation for the betterment of all! No wonder he’s on Mt. Rushmore!

There is one place that most of our elected officials seem to be unified – in spending our hard-earned dollars like drunken sailors! (Truthfully, intoxicated sailors may be better for us as they, while not showing restraint either, eventually run out of money and can’t print anymore.)

Intoxicate /ĭn-tŏk′sĭ-kāt″/ To stupefy or excite by the action of a chemical substance such as alcohol. *

I think much of D.C. is intoxicated with itself… with power… with absolute control. If our republic were an automobile, and Congress was in the driver’s seat (which they are), then they would be given a DWI, decreeing while intoxicated, by any respectable officer. Maybe we should do a citizen’s arrest?

The third definition of intoxicate is more applicable: to poison. *

Poison! That’s it! What an interesting thought. But poisoned with what? Sin, of course! Sin is a poison. It poisons our morality and pollutes our ability to think properly or to act prudently.

Prudent /proo͞d′nt/ Careful or wise in handling practical matters; exercising good judgment or common sense. “a prudent manager of money.” *

Spoiler alert: $34 TRILLION in National debt is not prudent!!! Our advice is to pay down or pay off as much of yours as is possible, and as soon as possible. Otherwise, you are vulnerable to becoming a slave to it when economically difficult times do arrive.

Our debt is a problem, but not the main problem. What then do we do about our root problem… our national and personal sin?

We repent of it! We cry out and seek the face of Almighty God and ask for His forgiveness and mercy. Then we start in a unified manner to undo what we have done or allowed.

Repentance /rĭ-pĕn′təns/ The act of repenting, or the state of being penitent; sorrow for what one has done or omitted to do; especially, contrition for sin. *

You may be thinking, “What does all this have to do with my money?” A lot, of course! Your (our) financial future is at stake!

But there is even more at stake. Jesus said, “No one can serve two masters; for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth.”

So, what is the fate of our Union? Could it be “seven years of famine?” Or worse? We believe there are some parallels to the roaring 20’s in play today. “But this is an election year, you know.” Our fate will eventually be catastrophic if we don’t humble ourselves quickly and come together soberly and selflessly for the mutual benefit of our nation and society.

Our need is for communion. Not communism! Dr. Billy Graham wrote in Unto The Hills, “The principle reason communism loses ground in the world (when it does) is that it promises material prosperity without spiritual satisfaction. Things, minus God, equal misery.” 

Communion /kə-myoo͞n′yən/ The act or an instance of sharing, as of thoughts or feelings. *

Merriam-Webster defines Communion (more appropriately as we lead up to Easter) as an act or instance of sharing, a Christian sacrament in which bread and wine are consumed as a memorial of Christ’s death or a symbol for the spiritual union between Christ and communicant, or a body of Christians having a common faith and discipline.

Now that is a more enjoyable state of union.

Ultimately, the greatest risk is one of eternity. “For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world, and forfeit his soul?” The choice is yours. And as a nation, this coming November, the choice will be ours too. May we choose piety over notoriety. Choose restraint over complaint. And choose life over strife. 

Now on to the stock market. Warning: Bullishness is very excessive. It feels as though many investors may have piled into the same side of the investment boat. While equity demand has expanded into broader sectors/stocks, which could be good for a longer-term uptrend, Wall Street generally does the opposite of the crowd at extremes; catching them off-guard. You might want to have a life jacket in hand, i.e. prepare an exit strategy.

The major stock indexes continue to hit new highs but just lately on weakening daily volume. Many stocks/sectors are extended in price. They can still go higher in the near term, but the risks of a sharp pullback are growing.

Has Jerome Powell and the Fed become the Wizard of Oz? Is the Wicked Witch of Inflation finally dead? Wall Street seems to be singing, “Ding, dong the (inflation) witch is dead! Inflation is dead…” Yet, on main street (where you and I live) we seem to be softly repeating, “there’s no place like home, … no place like home…” because it’s too expensive to go anywhere! Hopefully a house really will fall on the inflation witch, but not on our house prices.

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) still shows 2 green, 1 yellow and 1 red light with a VIX that is back over its 50-day mav. FYI: The advance/decline lines are still unimpressive. However, new 52-week lows on the NYSE remain dormant.

The trend remains up (but with caution) as the major indexes are still trading above their 21-day mav’s. Also, the S&P500 and Nasdaq are currently about 4.9 – 5.1% above their respective 50-day mav’s, which is a short-term risk target.

The one who despises the word will be in debt to it, but the one who fears the commandment will be rewarded. / “… having canceled out the certificate of debt consisting of decrees against us, which was hostile to us; and He (Jesus) has taken it out of the way, having nailed it to the cross.” / “And forgive us our debts, as we also have forgiven our debtors.” Proverbs 13:13, Colossians 2:14 & Matthew 6:12 NASB 1995  

Game plan: Bulls: Be prudent. Revisit your time frame and risk tolerance in order to “not give it all back.” Bears: Will your hibernation end soon? The trendlines of the major indexes remain properly stacked and over their 21-day mav’s, yet even more stretched above their 50-day mav’s. Please pray for the peace of Jerusalem. (Psalm 122:6-7) May they prosper who love her.

* The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 5th Edition

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ® 

The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2024 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.

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