Special Bulletin: May 23, 2023

Not So Fast 

The stock market may be experiencing a “false start.” If you are familiar with track or swimming events, you know what that term means. As in the world of sports, where you get a second chance after committing a false start, the same is often true in the stock market. The push to 2023 new highs (aka. showing indication) on Friday & Monday by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq is proving to be a false start in that the “rest of the field” did not jump with them… yet. Nvidia’s earnings are coming (a big tech tell) and negotiations for the debt-ceiling continue… “runners (investors) re-take your mark?”

As of May 23rd’s close, our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” (as of 4pm today SPX @ 4,145.58) with a yellow light. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now shows 1 red, 1 yellow and 2 green lights. (Note: The VIX is jumping to the upside showing a change in tone.)

This new signal, the downgrade to yellow, may be very short lived. That means it may just be a temporary pause preceding a sharp move back to green… or on to red. I don’t know and you don’t either. But we will both know soon.

Expect volatility (price violence) to increase leading up to June 1st. By the way, be careful to understand that price “volatility, or violence” can also mean moves to the upside. Trillions of dollars with opposing bullish and bearish viewpoints are colliding daily. One or the other will eventually prevail; rendering the “sideways chop” trading range obsolete. 

Yet you do not know what your life will be like tomorrow. You are just a vapor that appears for a little while and then vanishes away. Instead, you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we will live and also do this or that.” But as it is, you boast in your arrogance; all such boasting is evil.  James 4:14-16 NASB 1995

Game plan: Stay focused on the debt-ceiling debate. Think defensively, but remain hopeful. The major stock indexes holding above their respective 50-day mav’s would be “Yuge!” Continue watching longer-term interest rates (see TBT) for a market tell. 

Ps. We are sorry for the delay in today’s post, and we thank you for your patience and prayers.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®