Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 1pm on 10/13/23 (SPX 4,333.68). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights. The new rally attempt in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is coming under immediate selling pressure. The VIX, which is sky rocketing today in front of the weekend, is confirming our signal downgrade to red.
In an interesting development, Gold and Silver futures are screaming higher too, while interest rates are slipping back.
Third quarter earnings season basically begins today. The big financials are the first out of the gate while the tsunami of the broader market releases will crest in a few weeks. Will the market “catch a wave” or experience a “wipeout?” We will know by All Saints Day.
The key indexes have fallen back under their 21-day mav’s at this point in the day, which has pushed our C.M.O. risk management signal back to red with the Core Four weakening again. One positive divergence so far today is that the new 52-week lows have NOT expanded versus yesterday on either the Big Board or the Nasdaq – yet.
Believe it or not, this is an exciting flashpoint moment for the stock market. Some see a “double bottom” pattern (bullish) in the indexes charts, while others see a low-volume bounce back up to the underside of a neckline in a “head and shoulders” pattern (bearish). We also see the makings of our “Nathan short” (negative) pattern developing. This is even more exciting then the MLB playoffs! (Go Cardinals! Ooops! Wrong year.)
We don’t predict, but we do set expectations for the odds of certain outcomes based on the current internals (the Core Four) and the key indexes chart patterns. As a result, in certain of our strategies we have “put on our raincoats” by reducing general equity exposure, allocating capital into T-bills, and putting a slice into an inverse ETF along with a precious metals ETF and an oil & gas ETF.
We will know quickly if the stock market’s current technical conditions improve to the point where we would again become assertive to employ capital back into equities; hopefully catching the start of a new prolonged uptrend. But until then we are exercising caution because of our disciplines. While we fully recognize that our C.M.O. signal may move back to yellow (and eventually green) at higher levels, we understand that that is sometimes the small price investors have to pay to be certain they are on the right side of a market trend.
Finally, we want to repeat that our hearts are deeply grieved by the heinous attacks on Israel. We are praying for the families that have lost loved ones and are asking the Lord Jesus to bring justice upon those that are responsible.
“As one whom his mother comforts, so I will comfort you; And you will be comforted in Jerusalem.”
“Never take your own revenge, beloved, but leave room for the wrath of God, for it is written, “Vengeance is Mine, I will repay,” says the Lord.
Isaiah 66:13 and Romans 12:19 NASB 1995
Game plan: The bears have emerged at the expected resistance level while the bulls are trying to halt the retreat. Closely monitor and measure the current rally attempt for technical staying power which could heal the markets recent vulnerable position. If a “vertical violation” develops and the Nasdaq’s low from (09/27) is undercut… watch out!! Please pray for Israel.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2023 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
Where Are Woodward and Bernstein When We Need Them? This article was written by Newt