Special Bulletin: September 6, 2024 (10am Update)

An Early Fall? 

I love the colors of autumn! I’ve heard certain reports predicating an early fall this year. Early or not I just hope it is a visually brilliant and elongated one. More color and for longer!

The stock market “fall” appears to be showing up right on time, though. Historically, September is not good for investors’ wealth. Now I get it: not every ninth month of the year is bad. But when they are, they are BAD indeed! This morning the S&P500 is falling through the all-important 50-day moving average (mav). That is bad. Where it closes is important but don’t get too excited about any rally back to new highs for a while. The Nasdaq continues to trade in a weak manner and the VIX is shouting “take cover!” to those who will listen.

Just 3 days ago we wrote, “First things first: Friday’s trade during the last half hour into the close was a bunch of window dressing baloney! Propped up by the pros to make their performance look a bit better at months end. This morning, we are already seeing the result of that – down hard on sharply higher volume. It will be tough to avoid a Distribution Day today.” Tuesday turned out to be a Distribution Day for the Nasdaq (and Thursday was one for the S&P500). Perhaps today will prove to be one for both indexes. The selling by the professionals is picking up and that is not good folks.

Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 10am this morning, 09/06/24, with the SPX @ 5,484.19. While the Nasdaq index has continued to trade under its all-important 50-day mav, the S&P500 is finally slicing through its own now. Today and Monday will be a huge test for the bulls to see if they can stop the decline and rally the indexes back up to and over their 50-day mav’s. Our Core Four has changed and reflects 2 yellow and 2 red lights with a VIX that is racing above its 50-day mav. Rates have been collapsing indicating a fear of a quicker economic slowdown.

The overhead supply (resistance) that we warned about on the S&P has made itself felt. The Nasdaq negative “sub-peak” pattern is fully in gear. September’s volume seems to be picking up and to the downside. 

We ended our last post with these words, “Remember, gravity works on inflated stock prices too. Beware of the fall. They still apply.

“For since the creation of the world His invisible attributes, His eternal power and divine nature, have been clearly seen, being understood through what has been made, so that they are without excuse.“

Romans 1:20 NASB 1995

Game plan: Keep your defensive unit on the field! Review your stops and sit on your cash from your sales of your weak and losing positions. Study the price and volume relationship of the next few days on the key indexes. Ask Jesus for wisdom. Please pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7). May they prosper who love her.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®