
Current Market Outlook
BLOG POST: Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is “yellow.“
Happy New Year to you and yours! Well, 2025 proved to be a fruitful year and in the process showed the Trump-haters and USA naysayers as dead wrong- especially about tariffs and the economy. When will we as a nation finally have a belly full of the legacy media’s lies and recognize they don’t practice journalism but rather push perverted narratives and socialist/communist agendas?
It’s past the time for us to step up as Patriots & conservatives to expose our countries true (internal) enemies – the “progressives” – and keep them on the ropes. The huge recent Minnesota scandal (and he was going to be their VP! YIKES!), the DOGE waste and fraud findings, the abuse of power (politically motivated) by highest level Govt agencies under the prior administration, Biden’s auto-signature pens, and on and on. What more evidence does a curious and intelligent citizenry need?!! (Unfortunately, there is even more evidence.) Through it all, though, the current Administration has stood strong and has worked hard and wisely and has had a remarkably productive first year. Click here for a link to an article on 14 good things that happened in 2025.
Unfortunately, the coast is not clear. The anti-Trumpers (and Never Trumpers) are so filled with rage that unity and peace are no where in sight. Shame, too. Just imagine what our nation could accomplish if they did their part and used all that expended energy on things that benefited the rest of our country rather than just their party – “hee-haw!” Even the Kennedy’s are leaving it… “Ask not what your country can do for you, but…” – and it is no wonder they are leaving it.
On Wednesday, November 26th, at the 9:30am open, our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light from a red condition. The SPX was at 6,793.54. That yellow condition still remains in place as of today – New Years Eve. (Note: our prior post had a typo- the SPX was incorrected stated at 6,993.54. I apologize for my mistake.) The TPM Core Four is close to moving to a green condition, but is not yet there.
That day we also stated, “The stock market is experiencing the snap-back rally we stated may happen in last week’s post (dated 11/21/25) and is back over the key 50-day mav’s. This morning’s strong open has confirmed a lesser 10-day mav “buy signal” from the 25th and combined with other factors has caused the upgrade to yellow. Volume will be an important tell going forward (as to the staying power of this rally) but will be light until Monday due to Thanksgiving. The major indexes now need to hold above their 50-day mavs for at least 3 days (1 down, 2 to go)! Remain on guard for the pending SCOTUS decision on Trump’s tariffs– the stock market will go breathtakingly hard either way.”
The big event facing the stock market as we start the new year is still the pending decision by the SCOTUS on the tariff matter. This will likely be a game-changer and market mover… at least for a while. Team Trump 2.0 has probably already developed plans for either outcome and those plans may even mitigate a huge decline or exacerbate an already explosive rally.
But make no mistake, that’s not the only hurdle standing in front of the MAGA movement. And as such, implementing strong risk management tactics/disciplines will be paramount in 2026.
The “credit cockroach” somewhere in our economy that we wrote about in November is currently in hibernation. Expect it to come out of the closet precisely when “they” need it- remember the mid-term elections are drawing nearer.
As we reflect back on 2025, we still mourn the loss of a great American, husband, father and citizen/entrepreneur, Mr. Charlie Kirk. His life inspired millions, his faith saved his soul, and his death awakened a nation and ignited a powerful movement. Praise God for that!
Finally, our Triumphant team wishes you and your family a prosperous and healthy New Year filled with blessings from our heavenly Father, the Creator of the Universe and the Giver of all good gifts. May the Lord Jesus bless you as you surrender your life to His Lordship.
“Yet you do not know what your life will be like tomorrow. You are just a vapor that appears for a little while and then vanishes away. Instead, you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we will live and also do this or that.” But as it is, you boast in your arrogance; all such boasting is evil.”
James 4:14-16 NASB 1995
Game plan: Develop a defensive plan. Monitor the key indexes to see if they hold their 50-day mav’s. Employ strong risk management disciplines if they fail to hold early in the new year. Pray for wisdom. Keep praying for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity for our own country.
Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.
Have a Triumphant day! ®
The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2025 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.
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BLOG POST: Our Current Market Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” and our light is “yellow.“

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