Special Bulletin: November 21, 2025

Market Moves into a Correction

Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Market in a Correction” with a red light as of 11:30am on Thursday, November 20th with the SPX at 6,695.09. Our “Core Four” sports 3 red and 1 yellow light as of last night’s close. The VIX is confirming the negative math of the market.

The six-month rally in the stock market appears to have ended with significant “sell the NVDA news” weakness developing and causing the stock market to experience a nasty, negative price reversal and fall back under the key 50-day mav’s. Yesterday’s strong open collapsed and selling volume ballooned. The possible sharp downward move we warned about last month has arrived! Separately, be on guard for the pending SCOTUS decision on Trump’s tariffs– the stock market will go breathtakingly in either direction soon.

A month ago we wrote, “In closing, even though our official signal has “gone green” be on alert for an immediate about-face on any news item that may catch investors off-guard or even scare the multitudes. Prepare an exit strategy just in case things sour quickly.” (Emphasis mine) That reversal happened and the “souring” has continued.

Expect lower prices ahead UNLESS the stock market does an immediate about-face rally on a meaningful pick up in volume and gets up and over the respective 50-day mav’s AND holds above them for more than 3 days. Otherwise, addition downward price probing will persist.

There appears to be a “credit cockroach” somewhere in our economy- never mind the ticking US Federal debt timebomb – something else is creeping into the collective gray matter of Wall Street and is causing indigestion right before Thanksgiving.

Lastly, we at Triumphant are deeply grateful for our clients, friends and family and want to extend to you and yours a prayer of blessing from our heavenly Father, the Creator of the Universe and the Giver of all good gifts. May the Lord Jesus bless you as you give Him praise for your life.

1 “O come, let us sing for joy to the Lord,
Let us shout joyfully to the rock of our salvation.
2 Let us come before His presence with thanksgiving,
Let us shout joyfully to Him with psalms.
3 For the Lord is a great God
And a great King above all gods,…”

1 “Shout joyfully to the Lord, all the earth.
2 Serve the Lord with gladness;
Come before Him with joyful singing.
3 Know that the Lord Himself is God;
It is He who has made us, and not we ourselves;
We are His people and the sheep of His pasture.

4 Enter His gates with thanksgiving
And His courts with praise.
Give thanks to Him, bless His name.
5 For the Lord is good;
His lovingkindness is everlasting
And His faithfulness to all generations.”

Psalm 95:1-3 & Psalm 100:1-5 NASB 1995

Game plan: Firm up your defensive strategy. Watch to see if the major indexes get back over (and HOLD above) their 50-day mav’s. Practice proactive risk management. Pray for wisdom. Give thanks to the Lord! Keep praying for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity for our own country. 

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®