Special Bulletin: October 30, 2025 (3pm Update)

This is no Trick and Certainly not a Treat.

Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of 3pm on Thursday, October 30th with the SPX at 6,845.46. The rally is still intact after a patch of recent weakness. However, Powell’s latest rate cut failed to ignite further demand for equities. Additionally, President Trump’s meeting with the President of China looks to have been anti-climatic with no positive surprise/catalyst. The stock market is almost through the “dreaded” month of October; historically November and December have an upward bias. Continue to be on guard for a sharp down move through the 21-day mav’s to set up a test of the 50-day mav’s of the major indexes.

Just a couple of days go we posted, “In closing, even though our official signal has “gone green” be on alert for an immediate about-face on any news item that may catch investors off-guard or even scare the multitudes. Prepare an exit strategy just in case things sour quickly.” (Emphasis mine) That “souring” is attempting to set-in.

Keep in mind that the end of the month can lead to many institutional “window dressing” cross-currents, especially when that month-end is also the official end to the fiscal year (October 31st) of so many mutual funds on Wall Street. Having said that, Monday’s “first day of the month inflows” should create an upward bias. Couple that with a fresh, new operating year for the aforementioned mutual funds and a sprint to year-end for performance chasers (almost all of Wall Street!) this could be a fruitful two months. BUT, if the stock market doesn’t hit news highs ASAP and keep setting them, then prepare for coal in your stocking! 

“Therefore repent and return, so that your sins may be wiped away, in order that times of refreshing may come from the presence of the Lord;…”

“But if your enemy is hungry, feed him, and if he is thirsty, give him a drink; for in so doing you will heap burning coals on his head.”

Acts 3:19 & Romans 12:20 NASB 1995

Game plan: Dust off your defense strategy. Stay alert. Seek wisdom. Monitor the 21-day mav’s of the key stock market indexes for a tell of a change in character. Practice proactive risk management. Keep praying for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity for our country. 

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®