Special Bulletin: October 27, 2025

Fall is in the Air. Let’s Hope not in the Market

The stock market is in a precarious position. The “math of the market” (aka. the footprints of money) is showing an improving, yet, not ideal condition for equity prices. There is much at stake this week as well as the President travels aboard in Asia (now), meets with President Xi (hopefully Thursday), the Fed announces their interest decision (Wednesday) and corporate earnings releases keep coming in abundance all week (many Mag-7 names later in the week). The old adage, “the market climbs a wall of worry,” must have been coined for such a time as this!

Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light as of the close on Friday, October 24th with the SPX closing at 6,791.69. Our Core Four currently sports 2 green and 2 yellow lights with a VIX (tie breaker) that is finally back under its key 50-day mav.

The rally is still intact after a patch of recent weakness. Powell’s expected next rate cut is due this week and is creating a bid for equities. The stock market is almost through the “dreaded” volatile month of October. Investors would be wise to continue to be on guard, though, for a sharp down move through the 21-day mav’s that might set up a test of the 50-day mav’s of the major indexes. 

On Wednesday of last week, our “Investor Sentiment” component of the TPM Core Four moved to a yellow condition. On Thursday, the “NYSE Internals” component of our TPM Core Four moved to a green condition- creating a “tie” (2 yellow and 2 green). Then on Friday, the VIX moved to a positive outlook thereby breaking the tie and changing our official signal to green at Friday’s close.

Several weeks ago, we wrote, “Several themes are emerging, some direct beneficiaries of the new Administration’s policies, and they will likely persist for 18 months or longer. Others may fizzle out. New themes will develop. Currently, the nuclear, aerospace and defense, financials, small and mid-sized companies and artificial intelligence, just to name a few, are working…” Today we are adding another area to our watch list that appears to be undergoing institutional accumulation recently: the cybersecurity group. Perhaps this is another sector where the AI Midas touch will positively impact investor psychology.

In closing, even though our official signal has “gone green” be on alert for an immediate about-face on any news item that may catch investors off-guard or even scare the multitudes. Prepare an exit strategy just in case things sour quickly.

“Put in the sickle, for the harvest is ripe.
Come, tread, for the wine press is full;
The vats overflow, for their wickedness is great.
Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision!
For the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision.”

“Do not fear, for I am with you; do not anxiously look about you, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, surely I will help you, surely I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’

Joel 3:13-14 & Isaiah 41:10 NASB 1995

Game plan: Be selective. Be alert. Ask for wisdom. Monitor the 21-day mav’s of the key stock market indexes as a tell of a character change. Focus on allocating capital in areas that are being accumulated by the institutions and practice disciplined risk management. Keep praying for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity for our country. 

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®