Special Bulletin: February 3, 2026 (10am Update)

On the Verge of a Crash or Just a Smash?

Our Current Market Outlook was downgraded at 10am this morning (February 3rd) to “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The current red condition officially started when the S&P500 slipped under 6,970 but our 10am review and declaration was made at SPX 6,950.84. This “red” condition has primarily been building on the Nasdaq but now is beginning to spread over to the S&P500 this morning.

Yesterday’s low volume up move with the “first day of the month inflows” was a clue to today’s action coupled with other factors. The number of new 52-week lows on the NYSE exceeded a healthy figure for a fifth day in a row yesterday (a first stage sell signal) while the investor sentiment readings have hit excessive optimism levels (which can become a “topping” warning quickly when coupled with the former*). The major indexes are testing their key moving averages (21-day & 50-day) at this moment while the VIX (volatility index) is soaring well over its 50-day mav. THIS IS A CRITICAL JUNCTURE.

It is very important to monitor right now how the stock market reacts to this weakness (this dip) to see if the pro’s buy it and equities immediately snap back up and stay over the major indexes key mavs or not. Without any immediate, persistent and significant stock market strength, prices will probe lower.

We are not making a “dire” prediction here but only sharing that the math of the market (internal conditions) now strongly suggest that the health of the stock market has eroded to the point where a significant sell-off could happen more easily than normal. If this condition is to pass and nothing is to come from our Current Market outlook “red” signal, then the market need only to go back up quickly accompanied with strong technical internals and high trading volume and that would confirm that the “footprints of money” were stampeding back in. The jury is still out.

Keep in mind that February can historically be a difficult month for equities. Additionally, remain on guard for the pending SCOTUS decision on Trump’s tariffs- the stock market will go breathtakingly hard either way. 

The TPM Core Four has 2 red and 2 yellow lights with the tie-breaking VIX well over its 50-day mav: red signal. We will be diligent to access the stock markets internal strength in the days ahead and will be quick to upgrade to yellow BUT only if the “math of the Market” dictates it by actual stock market action.

The sky is not falling… but stocks are beginning to sell off.

May the Lord Jesus bless you.  <><

“ Jesus *said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the Father but through Me.“

John 14:6 NASB 1995

Game plan: Play DEFENSE until meaningful strength returns. Monitor the key indexes to see if they hold their respective 21-day and 50-day mav’s. Employ strong risk management disciplines if they fail to hold in February. Ask the Lord for wisdom. Please pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity in our country. 

* The original post included an error which was corrected on 02-05-26 to read “former” not latter. Thank you.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®