Special Bulletin: March 12, 2026 (1pm Update)

You Will Hear of Wars and Rumors of Wars…

Matthew 24:6 says, “You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end.” In times like these, it may seem as though we are living in the “last days.” Perhaps we are. But while these are indeed times of danger and fear, they can also be a time filled with hope and peace. Students of the Bible are very aware of what God has prophesized in the book of Revelation and what He has promised throughout the Scriptures to those who love Him. Believers can take great comfort in His goodness and expect the Almighty God to fulfill His word and keep His promises.

There is a silver lining to the war with the terrorist regime in Iran: a world with a significantly reduced threat of terrorism against the US and a removal of a huge future nuclear threat to everyone on earth. Let that sink in for a minute.

Our nation has experienced several economic booms in the past after defeating an oppressive/aggressive (and often downright evil) enemy. Many of us remember stories or have first-hand experience on how the world became safer and more prosperous after the defeat of Nazi Germany, the end to the Cold War with Russia, and more recently the removal of Saddam Hussein and terrorists in Iraq. Now after 47 years we have an opportunity to bring an end to the murder and unspeakable atrocities in Iran. This bold act can release creative energies and much time and money (that has been wasted on protecting us from the likes of Osama Bin Laden and others) and allow us to invest them into more fruitful and world-benefiting endeavors.

Unfortunately, war is big business. Rebuilding a prior enemy is big business. While those may be true, fortunately, the dividend earned from improved global peace is even bigger for business. While our nation has faced many great crises throughout our 250-year history, our resolve to seek peace and prosperity for all has guided and driven us in the past and I believe it will again in the present… which should lead to a better future for billions of people.

Our Current Market Outlook remains “Market in a Correction” with a red light. The current red condition officially started when the S&P500 slipped under 6,970 on February 3rd. This “red” condition has now spread to most of the rest of the stock market. Our TPM Core Four has 3 red and 1 yellow light with the VIX well over its 50-day mav. 

Last month in our latest post (titled “On the Verge of a Crash or Just a Smash?”) we wrote, “Yesterday’s low volume up move with the “first day of the month inflows” was a clue to today’s action coupled with other factors. The number of new 52-week lows on the NYSE exceeded a healthy figure for a fifth day in a row yesterday (a first stage sell signal) while the investor sentiment readings have hit excessive optimism levels (which can become a “topping” warning quickly when coupled with the former*). The major indexes are testing their key moving averages (21-day & 50-day) at this moment while the VIX (volatility index) is soaring well over its 50-day mav. THIS IS A CRITICAL JUNCTURE.

This is still a critical juncture.

In our last post we also stated, “We are not making a “dire” prediction here but only sharing that the math of the market (internal conditions) now strongly suggest that the health of the stock market has eroded to the point where a significant sell-off could happen more easily than normal. If this condition is to pass and nothing is to come from our Current Market outlook “red” signal, then the market need only to go back up quickly accompanied with strong technical internals and high trading volume and that would confirm that the “footprints of money” were stampeding back in. The jury is still out.”

We are now at war, and the “pros” have not stampeded back in. Curiously, while the stock market has moved lower, it has not broken badly or plunged yet despite the swift war to remove murderous terrorists from power. 

Separately, there appears to be a “credit cockroach” lurking in the marketplace. Just look at the charts of OWL, BLK, GS, JPM and XLF to get a sniff of it. Is it problems in AI debt financing? (Take a look at the chart of ORCL.) Is there trouble brewing in the “junk bond” world? (Peak at HYG’s chart.)

Here’s an interesting scenario to consider: The big cats on Wall Street want to reduce equity exposure but they don’t want to wreck the indexes in the process (just yet), so they wait for a positive “event” to sell into to “hide” their selling. Enter in an end to the war with Iran and a peaceful new leadership there. Bingo! Big up move (general relief and short covering induced) in the major indexes. That type of rally could last for a few days and then stall. If that happened and was followed by a bad break, which led to an anemic bounce, it would likely be followed by a nasty decline catching the public off-guard. This is not a prediction but rather a call to pay closer attention to the trading sequence that emerges in the weeks ahead and to ask yourself deeper questions about your expectations based on the “news” and compare them to the actual action of the stock market.

The math of the market, or “footprints of money,” will tell us when conditions have improved enough to upgrade our signal and to begin employing capital again. It’s not guesswork. It is internals driven and numerically disciplined (see our Core Four).

The sky is still not falling… but stocks have begun to slip a little further.

May the Lord Jesus bless you.  <><

“When the righteous increase, the people rejoice, but when a wicked man rules, people groan.”

“But realize this, that in the last days difficult times will come. For men will be lovers of self, lovers of money, boastful, arrogant, revilers, disobedient to parents, ungrateful, unholy, unloving, irreconcilable, malicious gossips, without self-control, brutal, haters of good, treacherous, reckless, conceited, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, holding to a form of godliness, although they have denied its power; avoid such men as these.”

Proverbs 29:2 & 1 Timothy 3:1-5 NASB 1995

Game plan: Keep your DEFENSE on the field until an uptrend resumes. Monitor the key indexes to see if they get back up and over their respective 21-day and 50-day mav’s. Continue using strong risk management disciplines. Ask the Lord for wisdom. Please pray for the peace of Jerusalem (Psalm 122:6-7) and for conviction, forgiveness and unity in our country and for a quick end to the war. 

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®