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Special Bulletin: January 15, 2021 (1pm update)


I Was There, and There is Hope

The stock market has continued marking time by basically moving sideways since our last post. The high of Dec 29th on the S&P500 at 3,756 and today’s intra-day low (so far) of 3,749 are nearly identical.

Up to this hour at 1 pm, the S&P500 has tested and held its 21-day moving average, while the Nasdaq tested and held its 10-day mav. If those levels hold this afternoon, that could be seen as bullish action. Keep in mind, the bullish investor sentiment is so incredibly high right now, and has been for some time, that it is looking more like a tremendous buildup of snow on top of a Colorado 14’er ready to set off a massive avalanche of “smart money” selling. Hence, the yellow condition.

Our Current Market Outlook displays a yellow light and remains in an “Uptrend Under Pressure” condition. This yellow condition could last for a while longer, but it is still likely that the market will be “shoved violently into either a soaring green or a bludgeoning red condition” as we move to the inauguration and just beyond.

At this point, we have begun to defensively position our strategies that we manage for our clients by raising cash levels and/or by investing a portion in short-term treasury ETF’s.

For what it’s worth, I was there in D.C. on the 6th. Despite it being cold, breezy and overcast that day, the crowd was warm, calm and shining brightly for our country. We started at the Ellipse and listened to our President. When he was done, we walked past the Washington Monument and continued down Constitution Ave and then along Madison Dr NW.

While my group did not go onto the Capitol grounds itself, we ended our day standing for some time in the National Mall field (Union Square area) near the edge of the pond on the opposite side of the Capitol with a great view of the building. We prayed, we sang, hoped and then departed. Even though we headed to the Metro just before the breech happened, I can attest that many of the mainstream media reports about the rally and the peacefully protesting Trump supporters are grossly exaggerated, missing important facts, and in many cases are blatantly false. Much of the hypocrisy of the “lefts” response to “riots”, the mischaracterization of the rally attenders, and the inflammatory journalism by the media “elites” has been documented by the excellent work of The Epoch Times.

Not that you need to know or even want to know about my personal experience, but here is a text I sent to family & friends sometime around 3pm on the 6th from DC. (When I finally got a cell signal!!)…

“Hi ——! Hope you and your family are doing well. 

 It wasn’t at all violent like they’re describing. What happened was certainly wrong but may have been intentional or a set-up.  We noted how the security around the Capitol building barely existed outside as we were gathering in front of it. Yet the police and Secret Service and other security were thick as thieves at the Ellipse and other parts of the Mall.

 Nonetheless the nearly million people I hung around with were friendly, patriotic, encouraging one another, intelligent, and from all over the country – I met people from several different states even as far away as California. There was an enormous amount of representation, all ages, almost half the crowd women, enormous showing of Chinese (working specifically to warn us about communism and the CCP) and other nationalities all in support of Trump. African-Americans, you name it we’re all out in support of the President.

 There were groups praying together, people sharing the gospel on bull horns and other speakers, others chanting “USA”, “we love you Trump”, “stop the steal” and “stand for Trump”, singing of many patriotic American songs. It was an exciting day!”

I know bad things happened, and I condemn them too. But I believe time will prove that some of the bad things were encouraged, even provoked, by anti-Trump (even anti-America) forces for their political ends.

Our heart goes out for Ashli Babbitt’s family. While we have never met her, we have learned that she was an American Air Force vet who deeply loved her country and was willing to risk her life for it. But on that day, as an unarmed civilian, she was murdered by Capitol security forces while exercising her right to assemble and protest. She was carrying a flag while she entered. While she shouldn’t have been in the Capitol, the excessive force used against her was absolutely unwarranted.

I do not feel President Trump said anything to incite that violence, nor any of the other acts. I heard his speech. I stood in the Ellipse park. He was firm but encouraging. Not at all inflammatory. He even stressed peaceful protest.

There is hope! In my opinion, the only person that can heal our land is the Lord Jesus Christ. His love and peace endure forever! We need revival.

“Yet even now,” declares the Lord, “Return to Me with all your heart, and with fasting, weeping and mourning; and rend your heart and not your garments.” Now return to the Lord your God, for He is gracious and compassionate, slow to anger, abounding in lovingkindness and relenting of evil. Who knows whether He will not turn and relent and leave a blessing behind Him, even a grain offering and a drink offering for the Lord your God?  Joel 2:12-14 *

Father, move upon our nation. Reveal to us Your abhorrence of our sin. Bring us to our knees in godly sorrow so that we seek Your face and turn from our wicked ways. May our hearts long for Your pardon. **

What can an investor do today? Review current holdings and develop a plan to lock in profits if a violent break comes. Keep watching the key moving averages on the main stock indexes for a breakdown.

Have a Triumphant day! ® 

Ps. We have closed our Twitter and Facebook accounts. Read about our decision here and here.

*New American Standard Bible®, Copyright © 1960, 1971, 1977, 1995 by The Lockman Foundation. All rights reserved.  (Note: This verse, along with clarifying/correcting edits, and the prayer were added on Jan. 16 after the original post was published yesterday.)

** Prayer taken from Search My Heart, O God devotional by Kay Arthur, pg. 16, January 12th devo.

The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2021 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.

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