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The Triumphant Core Four

NYSE Internals
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Special Bulletin: January 17, 2024 (9a Update)


 A Second Test of the 21-day This Year is Upon Us

Technicals and fundamentals, when used together properly, are a dynamic duo.  One reveals the “footprints of money” and the other shares the “heartbeat of the moment.” Never forget this: Both are constantly changing.

Our Current Market Outlook blends the most important data from both schools of thought and produces a time tested, extremely high odds of success, signal result. A signal that is designed to keep us on the “right side” of the market for all medium- and long-term trends. It has displayed particular prowess at the start of severe sell-offs and through bear markets (see our archives here).

To that point, our signal turned yellow at last night’s close. A primary concern is the rapid expansion in new NYSE 52-week lows and a sharp rise in the VIX up and over its 50-day mav. Maybe this will prove to be just a one- or two-day spike in selling/fear. Or maybe it portends more trouble ahead. We don’t know yet, but the “math of the market” suggests we pay heed, and when it does, we obey.

Our Current Market Outlook has been downgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light as of yesterday’s close (SPX 4,765.98). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 2 yellow, 1 green and 1 red light with a VIX now over its 50-day mav. The rally in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is currently on pause and has successfully held support at the 21-day mav’s. This yellow signal may not last for long especially if the major indexes rip up and off the 21-day mav’s in the next few days (Read: Go green). Any further weakness, however, would likely indicate that a test of the more important 50-day mav lies ahead (a failure there would likely mean: Go red).

Another point for thought is that of the weakening advance/decline lines since the start of the year. Are the “privates” retreating as the “Generals” lead on and prop up the market? This sort of action happened in late 2021.

Investors would be wise to also consider the real threat of the CCP invading Taiwan BEFORE our election. President Xi has made that very clear, and again recently too, and if you were unaware of that then you need to find a different, unbiased news outlet. May we suggest The Epoch Times?

Monitoring the VIX and its movement in the next week will give great insight into the intentions of the elephants on Wall Street. Remember, the stock market’s long-term trend is up until it is broken. 

And those who know Your name will put their trust in You,
For You, O Lord, have not forsaken those who seek You.
  Psalm 9:10 NASB 1995  

Game plan: The stock market is pausing. Certain internals are showing initial deterioration. Support at the 21-day mav of the major indexes is important. A breakdown in the indexes there will likely lead to a test of the 50-day mav’s – major support. Interest rates remain the key hurdle. Please pray for peace for Jerusalem.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ® 

The information in this article is based on data obtained from recognized services and sources and is believed to be reliable. Any opinions, projections or recommendations in this report are subject to change without notice and are not intended as individual investment advice. Not to be used as legal or tax advice. ©2024 Triumphant Portfolio Management, LLC.

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