Special Bulletin: January 23, 2024

 A Look Back at Last Week’s Prudent Post

All-time highs mean “green” skies ahead? Generally, new highs beget new highs and new lows beget new lows. That is, until they don’t. For now, it’s better said, “strength begets strength.”

In last weeks post we stated, “This yellow signal may not last for long especially if the major indexes rip up and off the 21-day mav’s in the next few days (Read: Go green).” And that is precisely what happened. Fortunately, for the bulls, no further weakness developed at weeks end.

We also shared, “Maybe this will prove to be just a one- or two-day spike in selling/fear. Or maybe it portends more trouble ahead. We don’t know yet, but the “math of the market” suggests we pay heed, and when it does, we obey.” Indeed, it turned out to be just a 2 day spike in fear, and new highs were achieved within 3 days, and our signal mathematically improved to green, and we have “obeyed.”

While our yellow signal was negated and reversed very quickly, it did do it’s job and kept us invested, yet with caution. (FYI: Red means sell. Yellow means hold and prepare to reduce.) As we have said, the long-term trend is still up. Conditions were still bullish as long as the 21-day mav’s were not undercut on a closing basis.

We also wrote that, “A primary concern is the rapid expansion in new NYSE 52-week lows and a sharp rise in the VIX up and over its 50-day mav.” Those concerns were erased on Monday (confirming our move back to green in our signal on Friday) when both indictors fell out of warning zones. Technicals never lie. They are what they are. Unfortunately, interpreting them is as much an art as it is a science. We stand ready to stay green for a while. We are also prepared to go back to yellow immediately, if necessary. We will let the “math of the market” decide that for us.

Our Current Market Outlook was upgraded to “Market in an Uptrend” with a green light as of Friday’s close (SPX 4,839.81). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 2 yellow and 2 green lights with a VIX under its 50-day mav. (Note: Technically, our signal moved to green intraday as the major indexes moved over last week’s highs and into new high territory around 11am – SPX at 4803.) 

The advance/decline lines are still not impressive yet this year and need to be monitored. But as long as the daily new lows on the NYSE stays low and the VIX remains below its 50-day mav, the footprints of money are still striding in.

One interesting thought is how the markets, which are a 6-9 month forward discounting mechanism, may be foreshadowing a Trump victory in November. After Iowa and the Governor DeSantis announcement, Trump’s stock value (both literal and figuratively) are soaring… and the stock markets with it. Just food for thought. 

This bears repeating from last week’s post, Monitoring the VIX and its movement in the next week will give great insight into the intentions of the elephants on Wall Street. Remember, the stock market’s long-term trend is up until it is broken.”

“And those who know Your name will put their trust in You,
For You, O Lord, have not forsaken those who seek You.“  Psalm 9:10 NASB 1995  

Game plan: The stock market is liking something that it sees in the future. Important support remains at the 21-day mav’s of the major indexes. Stay on your toes- do not become complacent. Interest rates remain a key hurdle. Please pray for peace for Jerusalem.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®