Special Bulletin: September 12, 2023 (2pm Update)

 A Bad Apple

The big boys and girls on Wall Street appear to be using today’s Apple hype as a source of strength to sell into, at least in tech land. After shooting back above the key 50-day mav’s on the Apple news just after 1pm ET, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have since slipped back under them and on higher volume, so far. This action comes right after the indexes moved back over their 50-day mavs just yesterday – a failure to hold that important average presents a growing threat.

At 2pm, with the SPX at 4,473.25, our disciplined process flashed a sell signal and caused our Current Market Outlook to be downgraded to a red condition. Our “Core Four” (see top of page) has 1 yellow and 3 red lights. Interestingly, the VIX is still rather tame and is situated gently under its own 50-day mav failing to confirm today’s C.M.O. move to red. Possibly tomorrow?

Tomorrow’s inflation news, and that which will follow on Thursday, will likely push the stock market to make a strong move one way or the other. As of this afternoon, the math of the market as measured by the footprints of money indicates the likely direction is lower. But tomorrow is another day and we are open to any possibility. As such, if things improve quickly, our signal can not stay out of step for long as it intentionally measures those daily “footprints” of money and it would respond with an upgrade. Sideways choppy patterns like the present one challenge most investors, but they do give way to a new persistent trend eventually. Will you be there when it finally comes?

Back on August 23rd we posted, “It is possible that our Current Market Outlook signal could even be upgraded back to yellow in the next few days if a positive catalyst emerged that caused a big price rebound on a significant increase in volume. A possible bounce target on the SPX could be ~4,500 – 4,530.” That bounce played out perfectly. The S&P 500 rose for 7 days and touched 4,541 on the 7th day. For the record, the SPX closed at 4,515.77 that day. Now that level becomes a source of technical resistance, a “lower high,” and no meaningful rally can take place until the market moves up and over that price level. 

Yesterday featured some very interesting technical action in the stock market. The NYSE Internals indictor triggered a red condition (part of the “Core Four” above) while at the same time the Moving Averages indicator in the Core Four went back to green. Today, the latter has moved back to red triggering the downgrade. “These are the times that try men’s souls.” Thomas Paine

“Take My yoke upon you and learn from Me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For My yoke is easy and My burden is light.”  – Jesus Christ as recorded in Matthew 11:29-30 NASB 1995

Game plan: If the key indexes can get back over their 50-day mav’s, and hold over them, an uptrend may follow. Wednesday’s and Thursday’s inflation news will be market moving. Continue to be on guard to the negative “Nathan short” technical pattern discussed a couple of weeks ago. 

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®