Special Bulletin: September 14, 2023

 Lift Off… Until It’s Not?

With today’s move by the major stock indexes back above their respective 50-day mavs at the close, our Current Market Outlook has been upgraded to “Uptrend Under Pressure” with a yellow light (SPX 4,505.10). Our “Core Four” (see top of page) now has 1 green, 1 yellow and 2 red lights. Interestingly, the VIX is still situated under its own 50-day mav- that is bullish. We noted two days ago that the VIX did not confirm our C.M.O. downgrade to red. Now we see why.

The rally in growth stocks and the general stock market indexes is still experiencing a profit taking correction. The recent rise in the US $ and interest rates has been derailing the tech trade. Climbing interest rates are a growing threat – watch the 10-year US T-note yield. The stock market still faces a difficult environment due to a determined Fed and seasonal weakness.

Two days ago we posted, “Tomorrow’s inflation news, and that which will follow on Thursday, will likely push the stock market to make a strong move one way or the other. As of this afternoon, the math of the market as measured by the footprints of money indicates the likely direction is lower. But tomorrow is another day and we are open to any possibility. As such, if things improve quickly, our signal can not stay out of step for long as it intentionally measures those daily “footprints” of money and it would respond with an upgrade. Sideways choppy patterns like the present one challenge most investors, but they do give way to a new persistent trend eventually.” While a strong move in response to the economic releases has not yet happened, the internals did improve enough to cause a signal upgrade. With the Core Four “Moving Averages” component moving back to green today, the net score of the TPM Core Four has improved back to yellow. Sideways choppiness, indeed.

Suffice it to say, as mentioned above, “tomorrow is another day.” Remain on guard as a sharp decline Friday or on Monday would likely move our signal right back to red. Touché, Mr. Thomas Paine.

Keep watching for “Lift Off.” The action in stocks was encouraging today and could be followed by “F.O.M.O.” buying: “fear of missing out.” Your main focus should remain on the major indexes proximity to their 50-day moving averages. The market cannot go up or down much without violating it in one direction or the other, and then leaving it behind as a new trend unfolds.

“I know your deeds, that you are neither cold nor hot; I wish that you were cold or hot. So because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of My mouth.”  – Revelation 3:15-16 NASB 1995

Game plan: If the major indexes can hold over their 50-day mav’s, a strong uptrend could develop. Wednesday’s and Thursday’s inflation news was hotter but not yet market moving- give it a couple more days. Remain on guard to the negative “Nathan short” technical pattern discussed a couple of weeks ago. A “vertical violation” would confirm it.

Note: You can learn more about The Triumphant Core Four risk management system by clicking here.

Have a Triumphant day! ®